2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[LargeHamCollider]

@MitchJi s wife is looking pretty prescient right now.

 

[austinEV]

Dead on. And one test drive in Model 3 will motivate 95% of potential customers to dust off their college TI or their smart phone calculator app and start doing the math.

When I first heard about the model S in 2012 that is *exactly* what I did. I was planning on spending 49k for a 40kWh. I had spreadsheets out the wazoo because my gut feel was that the total cost of ownership would be lower than an ICE if you kept it any length of time.

This from end of 2016 IEEE Spectrum article. Many points/facts in it are dubious 9 months later, but it is a serious article and I suspect this was true at the time:

"the vertical integration at the Gigafactory may be missing the biggest cost saver of all: making the cathode materials. CMU’s Ciez says that suppliers of nickel cobalt aluminum oxide and nickel manganese cobalt powders command large markups. Tesla declined to comment on whether the Gigafactory will make these powders."

Has anyone seen anything speaking to whether GF is currently or planned to process the cathode materials from constituents?
Likewise anything as to having lined up sufficient amounts of Li, Co, Ni for target GF cell production for next year?

This isn't real data, but when they were first pitching the GF they dreamed of having raw materials come in one end and finished packs out the other. So it is consistent with the overall vision.

 

[MitchJi]

I realize you're a short-termer, myusername, but if that happens (and by "significantly" I would mean under $330) I'll be running... to shake up more cash to increase my investment. My second-to-last buy was at $321.

Option_sniper thinks that $320 is likely:

$TSLA for sure will close September w/ long top stick & a red candle. likely pulls back to 10ma (going to be @ 321 in Oct) for W bottom?

Anyone who believes that Elon isn't going to be successful with TSLA should consider what he is working on for Mars:

 

[luvb2b]

anyone know the best source for international ev sales by model and month?

i feel like there was a google docs spreadsheet that tracked this.

edit: i found the thread on tmc:
Tesla Europe Registration Stats

but this is european stats only. curious if anyone has tried to statistically model predictiveness of measured registrations vs. reported quarterly sales. i suspect it's not possible due to the quarter-end delivery loading, but thought i would ask. @bonaire or @schonelucht maybe you guys know?

 

[MitchJi]

Audi on fuel cells: Maybe later

"I'm sure [VW Group] thinks that at some point the technology and cost of fuel cells will all make sense in certain circumstances like commercial use, and they want to have a stake in that game when it does," Brauer said. "But everything you heard in Frankfurt was dead set on EVs as the near-term solution."

They clearly have no idea of what Tesla is doing and will be doing with battery costs!

 

[Nate the Great]

I'm reposting this from the Market Thread.

When we didn't crack through this time, this occurred to me. Maybe we will be range bound and test 385 just like we were with 280 being the ATH for 3 years.

We know that the first price shift was because of Daimler buying 10% in May, 2009

We were then range bound for three years, with 280 being the new ATH.

In March, 2017 Tencent Holding bought in 5% and the SP went up another 100 points.

Is there a possibility that we will continue to test 385 just like we tested 280?



Technical Analysis 101: Trends, Volume, Support and Resistance, by @Goldfinger

 

[brian45011]

Agree, but it is a reason there is pressure on the TSLA SP today

At 6/30/17, the closing price was $361.60. During the 2nd quarter, FMR sold 13% of its holdings as of 3/31/17; TROW 49%, and MS 60%.

There are about 167 million shares outstanding. At 6/30/17, institutions held 95.2 MM and Elon 33.6MM (the other O&Ds' holdings are nominal), leaving about 39 million or 23% of shares as the tradeable float.

This is not the first rodeo that many of the buy-side analysts have ridden in, and many now have a "show-me" attitude about Tesla's early M3 production without meaningful commentary from the corporation, after problems and delays with the initial Roadster, S and X volumes and profits. What fund manager wants to hold the same number of shares if the share price rose 6.5% during the quarter then dropped 5.2% at quarter-end below the closing price 3 months ago?

Gavin Baker, the Fidelity OTC fund manager instrumental in the SCTY, bail-out has exited-- among many others. Place your bets.

 

[geneclean55]

Or in more simple terms, quarterly "lock-in" after ATH is reached week before end of quarter.
Nothing TSLA specific about that. Market has been doing this kind of thing for ever.

 

[Krugerrand]

GM is extremely loose with what they describe as a 'real self-driving car' (apparently they've already done it!). From Sept 12:

GM's Cruise Automation touts Bolt EV as 'first real self-driving car'

In other news, the sun revolves around Earth.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

I just read one of Montana Skeptic's articles for a short-view check, and it's hilarious!! Especially when one of the commentors stated, "This aligns with the ongoing factual results that higher delivery number translates to a greater loss!", except that his article proved the opposite!

 

[schonelucht]

but this is european stats only. curious if anyone has tried to statistically model predictiveness of measured registrations vs. reported quarterly sales. i suspect it's not possible due to the quarter-end delivery loading, but thought i would ask. @bonaire or @schonelucht maybe you guys know?

I haven't tried it. Skeptical it would work, but certainly interested in the results of anyone who'd have a go at it. Batching certainly poses a challenge.

 

[schonelucht]

I just read one of Montana Skeptic's articles for a short-view check, and it's hilarious!! Especially when one of the commentors stated, "This aligns with the ongoing factual results that higher delivery number translates to a greater loss!", except that his article proved the opposite!

Is the article proving lower losses this quarter or higher deliveries? I am starting to plug some numbers for Q3 in a spreadsheet and I am pretty certain we will see record deliveries but also a near record hefty loss. Guidance for automotive GM <20% kills the numbers pretty badly for me.

 

[zzziii]

This is so funny

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Is the article proving lower losses this quarter or higher deliveries? I am starting to plug some numbers for Q3 in a spreadsheet and I am pretty certain we will see record deliveries but also a near record hefty loss. Guidance for automotive GM <20% kills the numbers pretty badly for me.

Both! CoverDrive is predicting 26,500 deliveries, and $492 million loss.

 

[Starno]

--- NEW M3 VIDEO ----

 

[Fallenone]

At 6/30/17, the closing price was $361.60. During the 2nd quarter, FMR sold 13% of its holdings as of 3/31/17; TROW 49%, and MS 60%.

There are about 167 million shares outstanding. At 6/30/17, institutions held 95.2 MM and Elon 33.6MM (the other O&Ds' holdings are nominal), leaving about 39 million or 23% of shares as the tradeable float.

This is not the first rodeo that many of the buy-side analysts have ridden in, and many now have a "show-me" attitude about Tesla's early M3 production without meaningful commentary from the corporation, after problems and delays with the initial Roadster, S and X volumes and profits. What fund manager wants to hold the same number of shares if the share price rose 6.5% during the quarter then dropped 5.2% at quarter-end below the closing price 3 months ago?

Gavin Baker, the Fidelity OTC fund manager instrumental in the SCTY, bail-out has exited-- among many others. Place your bets.

As of end of Q2, Baker still holds about a million shares or something like that. He certainly reduced, but not exited. TSLA is 6th latest holding, down from 4th I believe

 

[doctoxics]

I'm reposting this from the Market Thread.

When we didn't crack through this time, this occurred to me. Maybe we will be range bound and test 385 just like we were with 280 being the ATH for 3 years.

We know that the first price shift was because of Daimler buying 10% in May, 2009

We were then range bound for three years, with 280 being the new ATH.

In March, 2017 Tencent Holding bought in 5% and the SP went up another 100 points.

Is there a possibility that we will continue to test 385 just like we tested 280?



Technical Analysis 101: Trends, Volume, Support and Resistance, by @Goldfinger

With the Model 3 and Tesla Energy exponential ramps, we are now on a steeper trajectory. Stock price reaches 500 in 2018.

 

[vgrinshpun]

With all the talk about Tesla "a car company", I am looking forward to seeing pictures of Elon similar to these:

View attachment 236360

The sequel - for this gloomy day...

 

[Bobfitz1]

This isn't real data, but when they were first pitching the GF they dreamed of having raw materials come in one end and finished packs out the other. So it is consistent with the overall vision.

I've mentioned startup company NanoOne in a few recent posts. If you follow link to their 'Presentation' check pages 6 - 8 which contrast current cathode materials processing versus their aqueous process. NanoOne process is simpler, faster, cheaper and they claim produces better performing cathode material. They are currently proving the process out with an operating pilot plant. I believe their simplified process would make it much more feasible for raw cathode materials to come into the GF and be efficiently processed into finished cathodes. If they are right (or close) I think that proposition will be hard for Tesla to resist. I could see them acquiring NanoOne, partnering with them or becoming largest customer. NanoOne battery nanotech synergy with Jeff Dahl's team could also be very powerful IMO.

https://nanoone.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/NanoOne_PPT_06_14_2017_web.pdf

 

[Nate the Great]

With the Model 3 and Tesla Energy exponential ramps, we are now on a steeper trajectory. Stock price reaches 500 in 2018.

The only time this stock makes a new ATH has been with some large entity buying in. If Tencent hadn't bought in where would we be now?

All I am saying, it is not wise to assume a new breakout ATH for each quarter.

We may be stuck at this range for a undetermined time.