2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Krugerrand]

I am having a harder time grasping the unbridled optimism about the truck. The information they provided was absolutely not enough to drive a truck purchase for a commercial trucking operation.

And yet Tesla had truck orders BEFORE the event last night and you were told that right at the start. Which must mean despite you not having the numbers you need to think it’ll it work, someone in the actual trucking business knows the numbers work.

Is there anyone else who isn't mind blown by the truck presentation?

Sure, over on the Tesla Killer Forum. Oh, and mmd, myusername, etc... You’ve got plenty of friends. Me? Nope. I’m busy picking grey matter from up off the floor.

 

[Off Shore]

Governments dependent on the gas/diesel tax for highways will really have to get their acts together on maintenance financing, especially if platooning becomes a reality. The future is clear, but crunch time may be much sooner.

It won't take long. Governments are really good at figuring out how to get money.

 

[landis]

Give me a 100 kWh pack and a lighter car, please.

The 'awesome' performance is possible only because of the 200kWh pack.

Since that is the base model if you don't want supercar performance I fear you will need to 'settle' for a P Model3.
It is reasonable to expect that to be (eventually) available with a 100kWh pack.
We already know it won't be less than 75kWh.

I will be happily driving my 3 LR long before then...

Edit: or should I say 'putting around in' my 3 LR. ;-)

 

[mongo]

How the heck can they fit a 200 kWh battery in that car, and still have it be able to handle like a supercar? Give me a 100 kWh pack and a lighter car, please.

Semi was impressive.

Half the pack will mean half the torque, but you still have ~70% of the mass so you end up at ~70% of the acceleration 0-60 in ~2.7 seconds. And top speed drops also.

 

[DragonWatch]

Totally not important, but the whole nuclear attack thing just seems silly. Last I checked, the temperatures encountered in a nuclear detonation are high enough to vaporize glass. Cheyenne Mountain, with thousands of feet of solid granite can't withstand a modern high yield nuclear device, but somehow Tesla has magic glass that can? Come on now.

Then you should have rated it funny, I would have, and I wrote it

 

[doctoxics]

Interesting that Tesla told Ryder that the range would be 200-300 miles, and since then they've found a way to double it to 500. Along with the 200KWh battery somehow fitting in the Roadster I think it's pretty clear that Tesla has found a way to double the energy density of their batteries. This is huge. Tesla Energy products are going to be twice as good too.

Seems like Tesla just blew electric vehicles way by ICE vehicles with the Roadster 2 reveal. 200 kwh battery pack and 600+ mile range in a small car! As you note, this reveal portends huge improvements in all Tesla products and also extends Tesla's lead over competitors. Seems we should get to $500 share price quickly if the market understands what just happened.

 

[Capn Bob]

Bought another 3100 shares yesterday, and many more in the pipeline. I’m coming for you trendtrader007! Let the games begin

 

[Krugerrand]

This.

I am 100% long, but I try to be an objective investor. As an investor I'm not too happy Tesla is again promising amazing future products without backing. It gives me the feeling they need the deposit money to fuel the ramp-up of earlier promised goods. To name a few:
- solar roof
- powerpack/powerwall 2
- model 3

Given the timelines of the above products, I am expecting Tesla to not ramp-up the semi in decent numbers by 2021 at the earliest and the Roadster in 2022.

I also expect (and fear) that before all the products above are generating decent revenue (and Tesla is cash flow positive), they will do another "unveil event" that will show the Model Y, and maybe some other model.

Don't want to be the buzzkill, but Tesla has got to be able to pay for all these production costs, let alone the promised "megacharging" infrastructure that will include vast amounts of solar panels and powerpacks.

TLDR; Just as investors stopped worrying about Tesla being able to pay for the coming production hell (M3, solar, Tesla energy), they took on another financial challenge without making 100% sure they will achieve 30% margin on the M3. This worries me a little bit.

There is always going to be another reveal. There is no choice because nobody is picking up the baton and getting in-the-trenches serious. Elon warned them (and you - investors) a number of years ago starting with the Gigafactory build announcement and then again a couple years ago in Europe. Tesla was never suppose to do all of this by itself, but because nobody was copying, Elon said ‘screw it! I’ll make you copy or you’ll die’. And recently we’ve been told the motivation and the tactic behind in - down with bullies via a punch in the nose.

So, you’ve got two choice to relieve your investing angst, sell or change your mindset. I’m not worried about my investment because I fully understood and accepted what was (hopefully - because there was no guarantee) going to happen. This was a go big or go home bet for me, for many here, and for Elon.

 

[Off Shore]

Truck production is a hell of a lot more complex than something like the model 3.

Please be so kind as to document that assertion.

 

[juanmedina]

Please be so kind as to document that assertion.

No way. Regulation are so much more relax than passenger cars and they are way simpler.

 

[jeewee3000]

So, you’ve got two choice to relieve your investing angst, sell or change your mindset. I’m not worried about my investment because I fully understood and accepted what was (hopefully - because there was no guarantee) going to happen. This was a go big or go home bet for me, for many here, and for Elon.

As I said in my first post on this topic today: I am 100% long and I am quite confident this will all play out nicely.

I'm just trying to identify risks continually as I'm investing. Why does this immediately mean I'm a traitor in the eyes of Elon's followers? Investing doesn't have to be gambling, that's the whole point.

 

[jkliu47]

Wal-Mart says it’s planning to test Tesla’s new electric trucks

 

[hobbes]

Who´s reserving a founder´s at $250,000?!!
Roadster | Tesla

If there are enough crazy people (wouldn´t surprise me), they´d get $250 million free capital for M3 production ramp .

(sorry if pricing was posted before, new to me, just picking up on the news from yesterday!)

 

[DurandalAI]

Thank you @DurandalAI. I wish I was wealthy, just to put more into tsla. If I were smarter I would have bought 3 shares each month instead of buying the car...but this is a more fun method of support!

Oh, I’m not wealthy, it will be a stretch for us to buy our two Model 3 vehicles. In fact, I will have to decide whether I want 2 Model 3 cars at the standard range and sell some of my TSLA or keep my stock and just have one Model 3 plus my Leaf. I just am crazy enough to throw so much of my money and resources towards TSLA stock plus 2 reservations. If I don’t get the 2nd Model 3 I will buy a Powerwall or two.

I’m just happy that my TSLA stock has gained enough to pay for full autonomous driving on my M3 if I cash in my stock. I’m still thinking $600-700 SP in 2020 so I’m reluctant to cash out.

 

[EinSV]

One thing I think almost every analyst missed about the Semi is that Tesla is not limiting itself to short-haul trips but is going after the high-end of the market -- long-haul hard-core trucking. This is where the potential operating cost savings per year are highest, and the potential revenue streams for Tesla are therefore the greatest. This is the same playbook as the Roadster/Model S -- target the top end of the market first.

Reluctant hat-tip to Ravi Shankar and Adam Jonas for "getting it," although they destroyed the value of their analysis by ridiculously low-balling sales estimates.

I believe most analysts still are really missing the big picture. By creating a truck that basically has no meaningful competition for key customers and controlling the ecosystem, I believe Tesla can generate massive amounts of revenue and profits from the Semi program once they scale it. I'll be very interested to learn their leasing terms ....

 

[DurandalAI]

Summary of Hours of Service Regulations

500mi/60mph is 8.3hrs
500mi/55mph is 9hrs

If a driver must rest for 30 minutes after driving 8 hours, and it takes 30 minutes to add another 400mi....
400mi/55mph is 7.2hrs
Well, we’ve already met our maximum ours for a day. This means that 500 mile range can cover a lot more use cases than people consider initially. They can start by putting Megachargers where the biggest clients need them, between distribution centers and such. They’re going to sell a LOT of these once these companies do proof of concept deployments.

 

[Krugerrand]

Why is it so hard for some people to just stay objective and not fall into complete fanboy mode....
Risks don`t automatically vanish just because you wish them to.

Why is so hard for some people not to be critical at every turn? Why is it so hard for some people to see that the risk was 2008 thru 2013 and since then the risk has simply gotten smaller and smaller and smaller such that it will now take a black swan event. And what are the odds of that? Yeah, not worth losing sleep over. So let people enjoy their Cornflakes this morning, k?

 

[Krugerrand]

As I said in my first post on this topic today: I am 100% long and I am quite confident this will all play out nicely.

I'm just trying to identify risks continually as I'm investing. Why does this immediately mean I'm a traitor in the eyes of Elon's followers? Investing doesn't have to be gambling, that's the whole point.

I didn’t call or imply you were a traitor, so interesting that you went there. Might want to think on that a bit.

I’m so over the whole there are risks. Well, duh. But the risks are not anything they were 4/5 years ago, or even two years ago. The risks nowadays are mousenuts. If you can’t see that risk progression, I can’t help you. At some point in time you’ve just got to have a little faith in your choice.

In the case of Tesla, absolutely it had to be and was a gamble. Now, not so much unless you’re on a short term time frame.

 

[NicoV]

In all the excitement, nobody seems to have pointed out that neither the new roadster nor the semi have side mirrors, they seem to be replaced with cameras. Is this legal;by now? Remember, the Model X was also demo’ed without side mirrors, but the production model has them.

 

[zmarty]

Tesla Semi: Rival Nikola Motors Says Electric Truck Will Be 'Very Bad' | Inverse

AAAHAHAHAHAHAHAH This belongs in r/nottheonion

Behold, the epic (now deleted) meltdown Nikola Motor Company had on Twitter last night:

SHAME, SHAME, SHAME!