2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Reciprocity]

I'm almost positive that Roadster prototype did not have a 200kWh pack, I'd guess maybe they squeezed in half that.

Based on what? If you are right then holy crap.. they found a way to make a 100KWh pack make riders who regularly do P100D ludicrous launches lose their minds. One comment by the drag times guy was that he thought there wouldn't be a noticeable difference. He also timed the launch to 80 so it should be out somewhere at some point. My understanding is that they double stacked vertical 2 cells, so fitting 200KWh doesn't seem that hard if you are willing to sacrifice internal cabin space. They could actually be 18650s as well, though I doubt it. We have no idea.

 

[Bobfitz1]

Based on what? If you are right then holy crap.. they found a way to make a 100KWh pack make riders who regularly do P100D ludicrous launches lose their minds. One comment by the drag times guy was that he thought there wouldn't be a noticeable difference. He also timed the launch to 80 so it should be out somewhere at some point. My understanding is that they double stacked vertical 2 cells, so fitting 200KWh doesn't seem that hard if you are willing to sacrifice internal cabin space. They could actually be 18650s as well, though I doubt it. We have no idea.

Plenty we don't know yet and may not for quite some time. Maybe I missed something, but has everyone assumed that when Tesla gives the various specs they mean that is what the prototypes have NOW or will have when production versions arrive? Just in terms of acceleration they have the specs now. That doesn't necessarily mean that they could drive the Roadster prototype 600 miles now.
Nor the Semi 500 miles. I'm not saying it's impossible they could, just that we can't be sure. I'm wondering when they would take either out for a max range drive with the press along. Happy if someone can point to event statements that flat out state the Kwh capacities are built into prototypes now.

 

[Drumheller]

Plenty we don't know yet and may not for quite some time. Maybe I missed something, but has everyone assumed that when Tesla gives the various specs they mean that is what the prototypes have NOW or will have when production versions arrive? Just in terms of acceleration they have the specs now. That doesn't necessarily mean that they could drive the Roadster prototype 600 miles now.
Nor the Semi 500 miles. I'm not saying it's impossible they could, just that we can't be sure. I'm wondering when they would take either out for a max range drive with the press along. Happy if someone can point to event statements that flat out state the Kwh capacities are built into prototypes now.

The reason I think the specs were what is now in the prototype is because of two things:
1. Elon said the specs and then said something like, "and this is only the prototype!"
2. The videos of the ride-alongs in the new Roadster show the drivers routinely saying, "and it can do this all night".

 

[Reciprocity]

Has anyone done the math on how many Powerpacks would be required for each Megacharger station?

By my simplistic reckoning, the semi has approximately a 1MWh pack, so 5 Powerpacks would be needed for each full charge per truck visit when there is no solar.

There is no way around the requirement for grid tied of course. The goal would be to charge as much as possible from solar so a ton of powerpacks would be required. Not to mention a football field sized solar array to fill the packs. My guess is that they will want to have many many locations with fewer chargers per location. This allows drivers to stop when it's most convenient, which would also allow more room for solar, wind and powerpacks.

Another way to look at that helped me was it's really only 3-4x current supercharger capacity to charge the semi. But there aren't going to be anywhere near as many semis compared to S3XY vehicles so the network of chargers will not need to be bigger then current super charger network. On the other hand, more charging will be done at mega chargers due to 125,000 miles average per year by truck drivers. It's also clear that Tesla will install charging at loading and unloading locations. Maybe not mega chargers, but several super chargers would be more reasonable. Solar and powerepacks as well of course. The mega chargers really aren't so much faster as they are more parallel because of the shear size of the pack allows alot more channels charging at the same rate as current Superchargers.

 

[TradingInvest]

Toyota the ostrich burying its head in the sand: Toyota still doesn't think electric cars are ready for mass consumption

I feel the Toyota guys are very smart. By now I'm sure they know charging time is not an issue. They have research groups that do all sorts of user study. It takes 5 seconds to plug in, and it's very convenient - in our own garages or workplace. For long distance travel, we can use Superchargers and eat lunch/dinner at the same time. They know all of these.

Why do they keep saying charging is a problem for EV? Because they want to stay on ICEs as long as possible. Every extra year that they stay on ICEs, they can earn extra 19 billion dollars. It will be a huge problem if they switch to EV.

I think they pretend they don't understand EV is the future, and the future is now.

 

[MitchJi]

Who here is reserving the semi?

Any suggestions on how to convince my wife?

https://livestream.tesla.com/assets/TeslaSemiReservationAgreement_v20171116.pdf

I’d settle for convincing my wife to get me a new Roadster!

 

[MitchJi]

In climate news, the fossil fuel divestment movement got a major boost on Thursday when the Norwegian government announced it is considering selling off $35 billion in oil and gas stocks. Norway would become by far the largest entity to join the divestment movement. Norway’s $1 trillion sovereign wealth fund controls about 1.5 percent of all global stocks.
From:
Headlines for November 17, 2017 | Democracy Now!

 

[InvestWithEdge]

Hi everyone, I am new to the forum and long Tesla. I am looking for some advice on protecting downside. created a separate thread so that all the advice can be in one place for others to easily browse.

Strategy for protecting downside with TSLA

Thanks for the help

 

[SteveG3]

Marques Brownlee, tech youtubber with 5.3M subscribers, discussing Roadster 2.0. Ends by saying his lease on his Model S P100D ends late 2019.

And is probably getting a Roadster.

currently #10 trending video on YouTube, with 2 million views in slightly less than a day.

this sells Model 3s, as high performing as the wallet will stretch Model 3s : )

 

[TradingInvest]

Plenty we don't know yet and may not for quite some time. Maybe I missed something, but has everyone assumed that when Tesla gives the various specs they mean that is what the prototypes have NOW or will have when production versions arrive? Just in terms of acceleration they have the specs now. That doesn't necessarily mean that they could drive the Roadster prototype 600 miles now.
Nor the Semi 500 miles. I'm not saying it's impossible they could, just that we can't be sure. I'm wondering when they would take either out for a max range drive with the press along. Happy if someone can point to event statements that flat out state the Kwh capacities are built into prototypes now.

The new Roadster will have a 200 kWh pack, probably by stacking another layer of batteries. 620 miles sounds reasonable. I think the final product will be better than 620, even if there is no battery improvement in the next few years.

The Semi has a low drag coefficient of 0.36. Also has powerful re-gen due to 4 motors and large battery pack. With this setting it's reasonable to consume less than 2kWh per mile. So a 1000kWh battery pack can get to 500 miles. I think they can get to 500 today. The prototype probably is not the long range version.

 

[JRP3]

Based on what? If you are right then holy crap.. they found a way to make a 100KWh pack make riders who regularly do P100D ludicrous launches lose their minds.

Easy, draw more current from the cells than you would in a production vehicle that needs to have the pack last 200K+ miles and put it in a smaller lighter vehicle = minds lost.

 

[Cobos]

In climate news, the fossil fuel divestment movement got a major boost on Thursday when the Norwegian government announced it is considering selling off $35 billion in oil and gas stocks. Norway would become by far the largest entity to join the divestment movement. Norway’s $1 trillion sovereign wealth fund controls about 1.5 percent of all global stocks.
From:
Headlines for November 17, 2017 | Democracy Now!

I'm not so sure that the national bank board that is pushing this wants to divestify. They want to diversify their investment out of oil. After all Norways economy is very oilheavy. The income for the fund is from the oil industry and their 60% ownership of Statoil. So everything else about this fund is about oil. Makes perfect sense to me, and it does means there will be less money in oil companies.

Cobos

 

[MP3Mike]

He also timed the launch to 80 so it should be out somewhere at some point.

He tried to look at it on his phone after his ride and it didn't get recorded/saved.

 

[Snapdragon III]

There has been a lot of speculation about Model S and X inventory the last few weeks leading up to the semi event, including some mysterious emails. For those who watch the inventory, has there been any change since the event of Thursday?

 

[Reciprocity]

Who here is reserving the semi?

Any suggestions on how to convince my wife?

https://livestream.tesla.com/assets/TeslaSemiReservationAgreement_v20171116.pdf

Sell your home, get a tiny house and tow it with your semi. But, have a garage you also tow with a roadster in it.

 

[DaveT]

Amazing and most impressive that the specs of the new Roadster (200kWh battery, 1.9 second 0-60mph) didn't leak prior to the reveal.

 

[JRP3]

Seems as if that would give an elevated seating position. Did it, and is that what made people think it had a double stack?

I did some searching and indeed the new Roadster has a pretty high floor and a thick bottom. Pulled this from a video

So double stack seems quite likely though I'm thinking still not quite 200kWh yet, probably wouldn't fit between the wheel wells, plus it would be quite heavy.

 

[Reciprocity]

This is why there has to be solar to get to seven cents.

Musk can't be serious about highway megacharger stations in the next five years. He's talking about customer sites. A Walmart distribution hub buys solar, powerpack and Tesla Semi and can charge at seven cents. All contained within Walmart. As the truck batteries age they can be used for stationary storage in the system. This can be an all DC system for efficiency.

Massive public Semi EV charging will probably need to be done at existing truck stops. That won't happen until the regional demand for EV semis is filled. Hopefully this is done with a common standard shared with all EV semis.

In theory they don't have to put any solar at the megachargers. They could work deals with utilities to provide solar + battery anywhere in exchange for supply at megachargers, even charging at loading and unloading locations as long as they install a new meter to track usage. In some cases, utilities are mandated by law to buy these credits related only to generation of renewables. Meaning, they don't get to resell the electricity, but they have to pay for the generation. For example, the power company parts me $170 a mega watt per year for 5 years for the electricity my solar generates and I consume. By law, they must buy so much renewable energy or credits if they can't buy enough. If you want to know more check out srectrade.com I think.

I think it would just look better to have micro grids at the truck stop. The fact is that Tesla is the only company that can do it all. Vehicles, charging, solar and powerpacks. Tesla could easily become the largest utility on the planet with a highly captive audience.

 

[electracity]

Sell your home, get a tiny house and tow it with your semi. But, have a garage you also tow with a roadster in it.

There is a semi truck RV generically called a toterhome. If the frame on Tesla Semi is steel it can probably be stretched.

 

[JRP3]

Just add a truck camper to this

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