2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[electracity]

I'm not so sure about that. Remember that Elon said that even with one or two motors breaking the truck can still continue to operate. If the systems were completely independent then it would only have half the battery capacity (and less than half of the range) with only two working motors

Not completely seperate. Batteries charged separately, but put in parallel in operation. The safety system can drop a battery pack or motor off the system if a fault occurs.

It's all modular. 1 semi = 4 x car. (more or less)

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I literally did admit this when I said: "the genius is not the technology... it's the marketing."

This is again partly incorrect on your part.

The genius is often in the implementation of technology in novel or particularly useful ways: 2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

 

[erthquake]

One of the 'A' members may shoot me down on this, but I'm thinking we may see Model Y sooner than they have been letting on.
It will be on the same (by then) proven platform as M3. So all the production lines already worked out (soon) only need to be duplicated, not designed and programmed. Possibly at GF1. They will need a new assembly production line in a new factory dedicated to Y.
But again, that is customizing/adjusting production technology that's already been done for M3. I don't doubt they've already decided where to assemble it and are setting in place orders for long lead time pieces like the stampers.

When do you think they'll reveal it? When would deliveries start?

 

[mongo]

I'm not so sure about that. Remember that Elon said that even with one or two motors breaking the truck can still continue to operate. If the systems were completely independent then it would only have half the battery capacity (and less than half of the range) with only two working motors.

If there is an onboard charger, it could be built such that it can transfer power between packs to handle range loss due to motor faults. However, nothing can add range if a pack goes out. So it may depend on what "breakdown" means. Stranded on side of highway? Unable to reach original destination? (which also occurs with a flat)

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I am replying to MMD, who wrote something ' interesting' (and a lot of 'other stuff').

In a long post his main defense (I quote : "my core point raised") seems to be: What if Tesla is telling lies about the specification of the Semi and it does not work. For me the 'interesting' part is to to get confirmation that already the only real argument against the Tesla semi left is hoping & praying that Tesla is telling lies about its specification. I think MMD is not alone in that, the same hoping & praying might already be going on in the board rooms of other truck makers.

However it also means MMD insinuates Tesla is telling lies in both official public presentations and on their website. Such position makes any discussion useless. Actually such is libelous. Maybe MMD wants to go there in reaching for last straws, but I will not.

"mmd" does nothing but spam the forums with FUD posts and trolling. Even in subforums here related to Tesla products, all they do is make insinuations that Tesla won't deliver or has bad intentions.

Their own words are illustrative of their ill intent: Degradation of the Community...

I am frankly disgusted that this person hasn't been banned.

There are others here who are bearish or negative on Tesla, but many of them at least make a good faith effort to create a substantive argument.

Mmd is simply here to lash out at people or make them feel uncertain for an undetermined (but probably related to monetary loss) reason(s).

 

[electracity]

I'm thinking we may see Model Y sooner than they have been letting on.

The refinement of the M3 suggests that the Model Y detail design is done. Franz is probably currently working on the STOL electric personal aircraft Tesla will deliver in 2070.

My best case is Tesla delivering a model Y in late 2019 that is a simple variant of the model 3. No FWD. $38K base with a bit more battery capacity.

Doing a mini model X will have a worse ROI and take a lot longer to get to market, IMO.

 

[electracity]

I'm not expecting 7c/kWh to be a problem for Tesla. I can already buy electricity for rates like that at my home, at residential retail rates, in Canadian $. In Semi-fleet sized volumes, it should be no trouble at all to get electricity for rates like that.

No problem buying the electricity for seven cents, but then add delivery costs. Canada is unusual with all the hydro.

But the good news is that Tuscon Electric just signed a deal for solar plus storage for about 8 cents after the ITC is removed from the pricing. The configuration is similar to what a standalone megacharger truck stop would use. So 7 cents with a decent ROI for Tesla seems completely reasonable in the next decade.

I'm sure 7 cents means a company buying a PPA which guarantees Tesla the revenue stream. These PPA can then be used to finance the megachargers. The PPA buyers may have a cost of 7 cents, non-contract purchase at say 10 cents. The PPA customers could be guaranteed a charging spot by scheduling software.

 

[Bobfitz1]

When do you think they'll reveal it? When would deliveries start?

Just a guess, but they seem to be doing reveals around 2 years before expected production. If it could be ready to sell by Q3 or Q4 of 2019, we'll probably get the reveal late Q2 or early Q3 next year.

 

[sundaymorning]

BMW announces today to invest 237 m€ into a new unit to understand the Batterie technology. This says all. They are many years behind don't really understand what they buy in terms of Batteries today and try to understand the market.

This is a shame!

The benefit of having a rocket scientist as your company CEO is tremendous.

 

[DragonWatch]

Not sure this has not been covered here yet.

Norway just decided to ditch the heavily criticized “Tesla-tax”

While hard core environmentalists may see this as a roadblock, I consider it a speed bump. If you consider their tax similar to our $7,500 tax incentive for alternative fuel vehicles, which phases out, the the impact will be minimal. If the average citizen in Norway believes in the product, believes in environmental improvements and take responsibility for their own footprint; then this elimination of their tax will be minimal.

With the introduction of the M3 they can save more than the tax incentive and still make an environmental impact, and get a few more miles than my MX 100D

 

[RubberToe]

Cross posted from another thread, but the recent California cap and trade auction just raised $862 million in the latest quarter. Part of these funds are used to finance the EV rebate program.

RT

 

[2virgule5]

I literally did admit this when I said: "the genius is not the technology... it's the marketing."

You seem to have a very unusual definition of what an invention is. But if that's so easy, where are the competing products that are matching or exceeding Tesla vehicle specs?

 

[Waiting4M3]

It's not just manufacturing. There's less work for lawyers as AI can do discovery work much faster. Radiologists will also lose out to AI. Jobs in the financial sector, on and on.

AJ will lose his job to AI?

 

[landis]

There must be a reason you answer this to me but it really escapes me why since you rated 'like' the post I made before the one you replied to which clearly dispelled the 'constant negativity' you seem to accuse me off in a passive agressive way.

Hmm, I was trying NOT to accuse anyone in particular, I had intended a smiley there. I can see how it came across that way. I'll keep trying harder.

I don't know why would you mention this to schoneluch, who is one of the most balanced and valuable contributors here...

Maybe because I momentarily lost my senses? ;-)
Yes, I appreciate the balance though [edit: to be honest] on average it often comes across to me on the 'glass half empty' side of the balance.

This forum mimics the real world with a variety of perspectives. My 'philosophy on life' is that more of this than we realize is a reflection of our personalities and temperaments. For the record, I make no apologies for 'glass half full', and 'we can do this' attitudes. I now have a big chunk of a rollover IRA in TSLA (and most of the rest in index funds) so yes I am motivated to watch carefully. That is one reason I am here. My investments are longer term for five to fifteen and more years though, though so short term hiccups are less of a concern to me.

Please reread the entire post again. I clearly outlined _different_ issues that could impact cost per unit A) with cell production for energy (partially externally sourced); B) with pack assembly for energy (low volume); C) with cell production for automotive (Panasonic themselves saying they are throttled back due to bottlenecks) and D) pack assembly for automotive (Tesla themselves telling us the line was rubbish). No generalization from one well contained step but clear factors that affect the full line up of products and the full scope of work.

So D is the one I thought I directly refuted. From what I've read, my inference is that Tesla was attempting to optimize/delay CapEx spend until absolutely needed, and got burned on this one.

I don't see the relevance of A-C in a discussion of expected cell/pack efficiencies by 2019/2020. Sure they will affect the short term volatility but we are getting used to volatility, right? ;-)

For C, there was also disclosure that TA cell lines had been temporarily repurposed to TE cells. Obvious way to increase OpEx efficiency.
For B, the quarterly reports show low but growing volume. While we would all like to see higher volumes we are at least seeing growing installation sizes. Slow but steady can win this race, preferable to huge investments (or loss of margin) in distribution channels.
For A, remember those visits a year or more ago for TE cell sourcing with everyone fretting about Panasonic replacement. An easier read is just that this was a perfect fit to keep those supplier relationships healthy and limit distractions to the M3 ramp.

In short, I do not believe at all that Tesla managed to materialise 30% cost savings in 2017 for battery packs sourced from the gigafactory.

Which isn't the same thing as contradicting what I infer of an internal validation that everything is in on track regardless of the short term hit to margins. I remember the Q3CC talk about waiting for margins to improve until (several months) after ramp reaches (mostly) steady state. I trust EM and the CxO suite can do the math.

I don't see a need to suggest that EM and JB must be (seriously ;-) stretching the truth. The more obvious conclusion based on past history (remember folks saying no way M3 is only 35k) is that Tesla is on track to meet the targets suggested by the Semi/Roadster specs/prices for 2019/2020.

 

[Reciprocity]

"gigafactory" -- is a marketing term. what has it done?... it's made you use the term on a forum as an argument for the company. has it delivered billions of dollars worth of Tesla Energy products?... has it delivered millions of Electric Vehicles and changed the carbon footprint of the planet... NO. it has not done that. do you say it will? does Elon say it will? YES... this is the difference between doing and talking about doing.

you have been marketed to. and you're impression is that it's substantial because you feel it.

So what you're saying is that Panasonic, Tesla and other vertically integrated companies all joined together in Nevada to defraud me while spending a billion dollars. Yeah, I can see that. I mean how many Tesla customers even really have a clue what a gigafactory is, did they really need to go to those extremes for a marketing scheme. I mean it most really help sell the cars.

It's pretty simple dude, batteries have to come from somewhere. No one has the capacity. All your famed traditional manufacturers who all have dozens of EVs coming in 2020. You have been marketed to.

 

[Starno]

"gigafactory" -- is a marketing term. what has it done?... it's made you use the term on a forum as an argument for the company. has it delivered billions of dollars worth of Tesla Energy products?... has it delivered millions of Electric Vehicles and changed the carbon footprint of the planet... NO. it has not done that. do you say it will? does Elon say it will? YES... this is the difference between doing and talking about doing.

you have been marketed to. and you're impression is that it's substantial because you feel it.

And when VW says it will launch 30 EV models by 2025, you're not marketed ?

 

[hobbes]

Supposedly another 100 semis ordered: CALSTART on Twitter

 

[RobStark]

BMW is selling its stake in SGL carbon fiber joint venture

The material was once heralded as the future of lightweight, fuel-efficient cars, but has proved expensive.

Several carmakers teamed up with specialist companies to push advances in carbon fiber manufacturing in recent years, in a drive for lighter cars that consume less fuel or, if they are battery-powered, can drive for longer on a full charge.

But a problem they have faced is that while carbon fiber is stiffer and lighter than aluminum, it is more expensive.

______________________________________________________________________


Not too long ago many TMCers were nervous about BMW racing ahead of Tesla because BMW was incorporating Carbon Fibre while Tesla was stuck in old school aluminum.

 

[bambam4171]

I literally did admit this when I said: "the genius is not the technology... it's the marketing."

Marketing is not the same as understanding what it takes to succeed. Marketing is yelling "I have a big dick" when women want someone that does understand their wishes and why they cannot voice them.
Not same same, very, very much different

 

[hobbes]

Towing an option for the 3 in the future? Sounds like it in the manual :
TheTeslaLife on Twitter