2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[anticitizen13.7]

Has the moderator of this topic, or the folks running the site ever explained why they won't ban a handful of the trolls who are degrading TMC? We aren't talking about suppressing honest skepticism or bear sentiment. Just dealing responsibly with individuals who have shown they are destructive.

My guess is that it has something to do with the little ads at the top of every page and the effect on them of constant page refreshes when people want to argue. Same reason I predicted Facebook would show increased revenue after the BLM and Confederate flag debates. Same reason Google news is filled with Seeking FUD articles.

To be fair, forum moderators are volunteers, and I believe they as individuals do not benefit from any ad revenue that results from increased traffic. At least this is what previous moderators have stated.

To my knowledge, no one has ever publicly explained why mmd is permitted to continually troll not just the investors forum, but TMC as a whole. I have heard that this person was made some allowances in the interests of TMC being “fair and balanced”, but empty FUD and bizarre/irrelevant attacks against Elon Musk for his alleged carbon footprint from travel go well beyond good faith commentary on Tesla as a company and Tesla stock. It is beyond time to clean house.

 

[geneclean55]

^
Recently, a significant number of posters essentially stopped using this site. Could they have gone somewhere new...

 

[ggr]

Some may recall that early MSs required a $5,000 deposits and I do not recall a founders series.

Signature series, $40k.

 

[UrsS]

I'm all fro removing mmd - there is no information in his rants - only unsupported attacks - reminds me of some 'news' outlets supporting the current administration with the same tactics - insinuations, distorting facts, alluding to non existent sources.

 

[Intl Professor]

I'm all fro removing mmd - there is no information in his rants - only unsupported attacks - reminds me of some 'news' outlets supporting the current administration with the same tactics - insinuations, distorting facts, alluding to non existent sources.

I've put him/her on the ignore button so see only those complaining or responding. Have you reported this behavior? I'll take a look at the record of complaints. Audie is the guy you have to convince.

 

[Intl Professor]

Mmd has one (1) warning going back to April 2016 given by me. If there are posts that are offensive, report them and don't respond. Meanwhile I will try to watch for more and ignore my ignore button. But only for a while. I checked the "reports" page but couldn't determine anything there since I don't know how to aggregate them for mmd.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I see the sls amg is no more.
2016 Mercedes-AMG GT vs Mercedes-Benz SLS AMG

SLS will always have some customers because guys like this:

 

[RobStark]

Saw my fist Model 3 in person today while I was going for a walk.

Seems smaller that I thought it would.

Maybe because it was all blacked out.

I guess they are starting to hit LA streets in real numers.

 

[schonelucht]

I don't see the relevance of A-C in a discussion of expected cell/pack efficiencies by 2019/2020. Sure they will affect the short term volatility but we are getting used to volatility, right? ;-)

See, this is my entire point. Current performance is dismissed as irrelevant. Only future goals are important. And when those future goals are missed, who cares. There is no reflection about how current performance may influence future performance. Missing the 2017 cost reduction target does not have to mean Tesla will also miss its 2018, 2019 and 2020 cost reduction targets. But it is disingenuous saying that there is no link at all.

It's the same cycle all over every time. Like today the forum is full of discussion on the 7ct/kWh energy cost. How Tesla will put millions off panels next to each megacharger with hundreds of power packs etc. Fine by me to speculate. But then also have the courage to revisit the issue in 2-3 years. Are the mega chargers there in numbers we imagined. Is it likely with their then setup that the cost for electricity in their setup at that point is below 7ct? (Without resorting to "yeah but in 2022 they will below 5ct") Etc... Those questions are important too.

I don't see a need to suggest that EM and JB must be (seriously ;-) stretching the truth. The more obvious conclusion based on past history (remember folks saying no way M3 is only 35k) is that Tesla is on track to meet the targets suggested by the Semi/Roadster specs/prices for 2019/2020.

I sincerely disagree. Past and current performance indicates that Tesla is on track of missing those targets.

 

[RobStark]

 

[EinSV]

See, this is my entire point. Current performance is dismissed as irrelevant. Only future goals are important. And when those future goals are missed, who cares. There is no reflection about how current performance may influence future performance. Missing the 2017 cost reduction target does not have to mean Tesla will also miss its 2018, 2019 and 2020 cost reduction targets. But it is disingenuous saying that there is no link at all.

It's the same cycle all over every time. Like today the forum is full of discussion on the 7ct/kWh energy cost. How Tesla will put millions off panels next to each megacharger with hundreds of power packs etc. Fine by me to speculate. But then also have the courage to revisit the issue in 2-3 years. Are the mega chargers there in numbers we imagined. Is it likely with their then setup that the cost for electricity in their setup at that point is below 7ct? (Without resorting to "yeah but in 2022 they will below 5ct") Etc... Those questions are important too.

I sincerely disagree. Past and current performance indicates that Tesla is on track of missing those targets.

From my perspective, current performance looks like this:

• Model S and X programs are both doing extremely well, with sales continuing to grow and margins very healthy
• Supercharger network is being built out at a rapid clip
• Service issues are being addressed and reliability is improving quickly, with Model S reliability already better than industry average according to Consumer Reports
• Model 3 design, performance and efficiency exceeds even optimistic expectations
  • Rave reviews are already coming in despite Tesla's efforts to keep it out of hand of reviewers
  • Demand continues to build
• Powerwall/Powerpack pricing are best in industry by far; demand is off the hook; production is ramping
• Solar Roof is a compelling product; time to market is extremely fast (albeit slower than predicted); looking forward to ramp beginning after field testing is completed
• Tesla Semi design, specs, performance and pricing exceed the most optimistic expectations; clearly will be industry game changer
• Roadster design, specs, performance and pricing are extremely compelling; should be excellent halo vehicle and enhance profitability
• Semi and Roadster reveals have padded cash reserves and added some cushion for Model 3 ramp at essentially no cost to the company
• Semi and Roadster pricing strongly suggests Tesla battery costs will continue to be much lower than the rest of the industry

Bottom line: Tesla is executing very well on the Model S and X programs. It just installed the largest battery in the history of the world in record time. Early reviews on the Model 3 and a massive number of reservations make clear that it will be a huge hit. I have no doubt that the Powerpack, Powerwall, Semi, Solar Roof and Roadster will be smash hits in their respective markets.

IMO it makes no sense to invest in any company if you don't trust management's ability to execute. That is especially true with a company growing as fast as Tesla, which has many irons in the fire, most of which are not yet mature.

Trusting Elon's and Tesla's management ability to deliver results has been very lucrative for long-term shareholders over the years. There is no guarantee that will continue, but given the incredible, game-changing products in multiple industries they have developed over the past couple years, I personally have never felt better about my TSLA investment than I do right now.

I am looking forward to Tesla tackling the production challenges ahead and getting these products onto the market in large volumes.

 

[avoigt]

Model 3 VINs

Number of different VINs: 128

Max. amount of Model 3s produced: 1107

Total entries: 156

Model 3 VINs

 

[CorneliusXX]

I won't debate the guesstimates about Tesla semi power numbers. When Tesla is sure enough to disclose the numbers, we can check back.
I admit, Toyota's semi is not designed for drag racing on hills. It is doing its job of drayghe hauling at the LA and Long Beach ports for which it is designed. On some hilly roads on I-5 to Los Angeles, trucks are required to drive in the slow lanes. Even most cars are crawling up hill. If Toyota wanted its semi to cross those hills, it could add more stacks. Plenty of room under the semi hood.

Whether the Tesla semi truck is real or not, either way it is good news for Tesla bears. Selling $0.07/kWh of electricity and $75/KWh of battery pack with a million mile powertrain warranty is financial suicide. The more semi trucks Tesla delivers, the worse its income statement looks.

PS: Yeah, read the article on LA ports reserving 10 Tesla semis.For minimum 2 years, they won't even see a Tesla semi. They are anxious to try one out. Too bad Tesla can't send the semi prototype to places where it can demonstrate its viability. From the surface, it looks more like the solar roof tile product to me. Not that I mind either way.

Forgive me if I take the word of someone who has started multiple multi $b companies on what is profitable pricing over some negative Nelly on the internet who provides no sources for their opinion.

 

[DragonWatch]

Not sure this has not been covered here yet.

Norway just decided to ditch the heavily criticized “Tesla-tax”

While hard core environmentalists may see this as a roadblock, I consider it a speed bump. If you consider their tax similar to our $7,500 tax incentive for alternative fuel vehicles, which phases out, the the impact will be minimal. If the average citizen in Norway believes in the product, believes in environmental improvements and take responsibility for their own footprint; then this elimination of their tax will be minimal.

With the introduction of the M3 they can save more than the tax incentive and still make an environmental impact, and get a few more miles than my MX 100D

I apologize for my misunderstanding or mistaken interpretation of this “Tesla Tax” in Norway. The Tesla Tax was targeted against Tesla due to the weight of the vehicle because of battery weight. I am grateful the law failed to pass. Again I apologize.

This article was clear and to the point.
Tesla escapes special ‘EV tax’ in its important market of Norway

 

[DragonWatch]

From my perspective, current performance looks like this:

• Model S and X programs are both doing extremely well, with sales continuing to grow and margins very healthy
• Supercharger network is being built out at a rapid clip
• Service issues are being addressed and reliability is improving quickly, with Model S reliability already better than industry average according to Consumer Reports
• Model 3 design, performance and efficiency exceeds even optimistic expectations
  • Rave reviews are already coming in despite Tesla's efforts to keep it out of hand of reviewers
  • Demand continues to build
• Powerwall/Powerpack pricing are best in industry by far; demand is off the hook; production is ramping
• Solar Roof is a compelling product; time to market is extremely fast (albeit slower than predicted); looking forward to ramp beginning after field testing is completed
• Tesla Semi design, specs, performance and pricing exceed the most optimistic expectations; clearly will be industry game changer
• Roadster design, specs, performance and pricing are extremely compelling; should be excellent halo vehicle and enhance profitability
• Semi and Roadster reveals have padded cash reserves and added some cushion for Model 3 ramp at essentially no cost to the company
• Semi and Roadster pricing strongly suggests Tesla battery costs will continue to be much lower than the rest of the industry

Bottom line: Tesla is executing very well on the Model S and X programs. It just installed the largest battery in the history of the world in record time. Early reviews on the Model 3 and a massive number of reservations make clear that it will be a huge hit. I have no doubt that the Powerpack, Powerwall, Semi, Solar Roof and Roadster will be smash hits in their respective markets.

IMO it makes no sense to invest in any company if you don't trust management's ability to execute. That is especially true with a company growing as fast as Tesla, which has many irons in the fire, most of which are not yet mature.

Trusting Elon's and Tesla's management ability to deliver results has been very lucrative for long-term shareholders over the years. There is no guarantee that will continue, but given the incredible, game-changing products in multiple industries they have developed over the past couple years, I personally have never felt better about my TSLA investment than I do right now.

I am looking forward to Tesla tackling the production challenges ahead and getting these products onto the market in large volumes.

Spot on ~ thanks

 

[DragonWatch]

Model 3 VINs

Number of different VINs: 128

Max. amount of Model 3s produced: 1107

Total entries: 156

Model 3 VINs

I think InsideEVs will add credibility to M3s VIN counting. I have to remind myself to be patient waiting for one month to end and another to begin just so I can count numbers You know, living in the now

Monthly Plug-In Sales Scorecard

 

[Gerardf]

You're just an idiot at this point.

IMHO the moment a poster starts to insinuate Telsa is intentionally telling lies and is misleading customers and shareholders and even repeatedly talks bad about someone of the Tesla management, that poster overstayed his welcome. It does not fit the culture on this forum.

TMC should be carefull as doing nothing might be seen as an invite of some of the posters on the TSLA part of the SA forum to start posting their rubbish here.
We will see highly respected posters moving somewhere else if that happens.

 

[Bobfitz1]

From my perspective, current performance looks like this:

• Model S and X programs are both doing extremely well, with sales continuing to grow and margins very healthy
• Supercharger network is being built out at a rapid clip
• Service issues are being addressed and reliability is improving quickly, with Model S reliability already better than industry average according to Consumer Reports
• Model 3 design, performance and efficiency exceeds even optimistic expectations
  • Rave reviews are already coming in despite Tesla's efforts to keep it out of hand of reviewers
  • Demand continues to build
• Powerwall/Powerpack pricing are best in industry by far; demand is off the hook; production is ramping
• Solar Roof is a compelling product; time to market is extremely fast (albeit slower than predicted); looking forward to ramp beginning after field testing is completed
• Tesla Semi design, specs, performance and pricing exceed the most optimistic expectations; clearly will be industry game changer
• Roadster design, specs, performance and pricing are extremely compelling; should be excellent halo vehicle and enhance profitability
• Semi and Roadster reveals have padded cash reserves and added some cushion for Model 3 ramp at essentially no cost to the company
• Semi and Roadster pricing strongly suggests Tesla battery costs will continue to be much lower than the rest of the industry

Bottom line: Tesla is executing very well on the Model S and X programs. It just installed the largest battery in the history of the world in record time. Early reviews on the Model 3 and a massive number of reservations make clear that it will be a huge hit. I have no doubt that the Powerpack, Powerwall, Semi, Solar Roof and Roadster will be smash hits in their respective markets.

IMO it makes no sense to invest in any company if you don't trust management's ability to execute. That is especially true with a company growing as fast as Tesla, which has many irons in the fire, most of which are not yet mature.

Trusting Elon's and Tesla's management ability to deliver results has been very lucrative for long-term shareholders over the years. There is no guarantee that will continue, but given the incredible, game-changing products in multiple industries they have developed over the past couple years, I personally have never felt better about my TSLA investment than I do right now.

I am looking forward to Tesla tackling the production challenges ahead and getting these products onto the market in large volumes.

Great post @EinSV. Reminding everyone to not forget seeing the forest for the trees. Seeing your points listed out, shows the under lying reason for Tesla missing its aspirational target dates. Elon and his top team aren't satisfied with doing better than their competitors in each product line. They want the thrill of pulling off the seemingly impossible, against all odds and conventional wisdom. That makes all the incredible work, at end of the day, fun for them. During the execution phase for a new product, when decisions arise that require a choice between meeting a stated target or making the final product amazing, I think they most often decide on the side of amazing.
While the emotional energy comes from wanting to show the world just how good they really are, holding out for amazing also is fully rational to succeed in accelerating the world's transition to sustainable energy. Amazing keeps building Tesla's brand identify. That brand identify helps more and more people understand their Tesla purchase gets them both a great vehicle and a belief they are at the same time furthering the transition to a sustainable future.

 

[JRP3]

TMC should be carefull as doing nothing might be seen as an invite of some of the posters on the TSLA part of the SA forum to start posting their rubbish here.
We will see highly respected posters moving somewhere else if that happens.

Indeed, they get frustrated by the meaningless noise and end up moving on. Meanwhile the trolls get exactly what they want and remain.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I've put him/her on the ignore button so see only those complaining or responding. Have you reported this behavior? I'll take a look at the record of complaints. Audie is the guy you have to convince.

Given that mmd’s misbehavior and FUD campaign is sitewide and not limited to the investors forum, I wonder if this is something the admins have to deal with.

A recent example: First bad M3 review, attempting to spread doubt about production quality, making insinuations about Tesla’s finances in the Model 3 forum, and asking “questions” about stock price. There’s nothing substantive about the post. It’s an attempt to stoke fear in potential car buyers, and mmd doesn’t disclose that they are a TSLA short. One can search mmd’s post history and find other examples of this.