2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[erthquake]

The way the game has to be played in this great new era is that whatever agenda you might have, you need to make sure it is aligned correctly with some of the new administration's stated goals. It does not matter at all if it also happens to contradict any other stated goals. Pay no attention to that. Now, I painted a narrative that actually manages to achieve various seemingly contradictory things... but are also fully aligned with the new administration's goals and therefore, can be achieved. The most interesting aspect of this new era is that the administration will fight all the parties and interests to achieve its goals and through sheer force of rhetoric, can make things happen. By being the nominal head of the Republican Party, and by beating the Democratic Party into submission, the new administration can set a course that is truly its own, even if that course seems to going in multiple contradictory ways all at once.

Truly insightful post. I've been trying to put my finger on a proper strategy for dealing with the President and you've crystalized my thoughts better than I ever could have.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

I was really thinking we would see a capital raise this week. NOT because they need to, but because TSLA hasn't been this high in a long time and there's no guarantee it will still be up here just in case they do need it at some point in the future. They could also make it a small one just to show bears they don't need a ton of cash. Elon has not excluded the possibility of an "opportunistic raise."

I'm thinking:
1. When Elon said they didn't need it, he meant they REALLY didn't need it and won't for a while
2. Elon knows the price will be much higher in the future and is waiting until then.
3. We will be seeing a raise in the near future, but the timing isn't right for some reason. For example, they might want to get the combined earnings out first so investors are more comfortable with buying the offering.
4. Tesla is so busy working on getting the Model 3 ready they haven't checked the share price this month

Ok, so probably not #4, but there's probably other things I haven't thought of.

 

[SunCatcher]

Wrong
"The overarching purpose of Tesla Motors (and the reason I am funding the company) is to help expedite the move from a mine-and-burn hydrocarbon economy towards a solar electric economy, which I believe to be the primary, but not exclusive, sustainable solution."

And, as I recall, Elon has said at times something to the effect of "Even if global warming wasn't the issue, oil will run out at some point anyway, along with the geopolitical difficulties we face by keeping our dependency on oil. So why don't we just start finding alternative solutions to our energy needs now?"

 

[jkliu47]

Lately Elon has been talking about "producing at the limits of physics" and previously about the productivity improvements gained by having engineers spend time designing the factory vs. the product. I wonder if Tesla engineers are doing a 1st-principles ground-up redesign of cells/manufacturing process/factory?

For instance, there's got to be a better way to make a cell than to slice up a silicon ingot. There's a limit to how thin you can slice it, and at the moment wafer fabs are losing ~50% of an ingot as saw kerf. Sure, you can recycle that "sawdust", but a lot of energy goes into both casting the ingot, and sawing it...

I am very familiar with the initial research funded by DOE in the 1970's into production of large area solar photovoltaic arrays. There were several competing technologies, but the primary front runner then - silicon wafers sliced from crystalline ingots, remains the winner today for almost all solar arrays.

Its almost a 40 year old process, and yes it would be interesting if Tesla initiates a 1st principles revisit of this PV technology.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Another thing to consider...I think we are expecting extreme geographic batching this quarter again, right? Does anyone expect a share price drop next week after InsideEVs releases their report for January deliveries because it's going to once again APPEAR deliveries stalled out but in fact will actually be fine?

I think the last two times we all said "hopefully someone reminds me ahead of the InsideEVs report next time." I don't think it's worth selling for but possibly a good point to add more.

 

[Intl Professor]

Though partial to my alma mater, y'all might be interested in this video prepared by the MIT hyperloop team for this weekend's competition at Hawthorne. I understand the team has already broken new ground with the braking system. Hope it works. If anyone's able to attend it might be interesting to hear from you. Thanks. Here's the short polished version followed by the original of much greater length.

 

[mmd]

Its almost a 40 year old process, and yes it would be interesting if Tesla initiates a 1st principles revisit of this PV technology.

This kind of fundamental research is better suited for Universities, that get funding from govt and have students working for free. I don't think Tesla has the balance sheet to support long term fundamental research like this, that may yield no usable result.

Another thing to consider...I think we are expecting extreme geographic batching this quarter again, right? Does anyone expect a share price drop next week after InsideEVs releases their report for January deliveries because it's going to once again APPEAR deliveries stalled out but in fact will actually be fine?

I think the last two times we all said "hopefully someone reminds me ahead of the InsideEVs report next time." I don't think it's worth selling for but possibly a good point to add more.

We should have like a calendar of events BTW, last year, it was fine only in Q3. Every other quarter was a miss.

 

[Sudre]

....anyone expect a share price drop next week after InsideEVs releases their report for January deliveries......

I was thinking there were quite a few vehicles left that were not delivered in 2016. The report might show a lot of deliveries from the 2016 leftovers. I have not looked at any other topics about deliveries this month.

 

[racer26]

I'm not sure that's correct. He does have children, and he knows there is no guarantee that Mars will be habitable for them any time soon, if ever. I think he's equally vested in keeping earth habitable.

His goal is humanity's long-term survival.

He recognizes that the biggest risk to that survival currently is our one and only planet. SpaceX is all about getting us a second planet running self-sufficiently. Tesla and SolarCity are all about prolonging the life of this planet long enough for SpaceX to achieve that.

 

[JRP3]

Interesting point about SpaceX. Is it true he is registering as SpaceX CEO in the White House meetings, not Tesla CEO?

 

[JRP3]

His goal is humanity's long-term survival.

He recognizes that the biggest risk to that survival currently is our one and only planet. SpaceX is all about getting us a second planet running self-sufficiently. Tesla and SolarCity are all about prolonging the life of this planet long enough for SpaceX to achieve that.

And if this planet is damaged enough to imperil the survival of humanity then even if Mars becomes habitable we are back to a single planet, so preserving this planet has to be as important as getting Mars up and running, (which may not even be possible).

 

[JRP3]

His goal is humanity's long-term survival.

He recognizes that the biggest risk to that survival currently is our one and only planet. SpaceX is all about getting us a second planet running self-sufficiently. Tesla and SolarCity are all about prolonging the life of this planet long enough for SpaceX to achieve that.

And if this planet is damaged enough to imperil the survival of humanity then even if Mars becomes habitable we are back to a single planet, so preserving this planet has to be as important as getting Mars up and running, (which may not even be possible).

 

[racer26]

Just read the lawsuit against Anderson.

Sure sounds like Tesla has all the proof they need to prove to the court that Anderson did the things they're alleging. If he did, it sure seems like an open and shut slam dunk case. We might get to see a court decide on the value of the autopilot information database. I don't see any way they could definitively prove that no additional copies had been made, and its been in Anderson's custody 3 weeks now without Tesla having any way to know what he's doing with it or who he's disclosing it to.

 

[JRP3]

His goal is humanity's long-term survival.

He recognizes that the biggest risk to that survival currently is our one and only planet. SpaceX is all about getting us a second planet running self-sufficiently. Tesla and SolarCity are all about prolonging the life of this planet long enough for SpaceX to achieve that.

And if this planet is damaged enough to imperil the survival of humanity then even if Mars becomes habitable we are back to a single planet, so preserving this planet has to be as important as getting Mars up and running, (which may not even be possible).

 

[Kenriko]

And if this planet is damaged enough to imperil the survival of humanity then even if Mars becomes habitable we are back to a single planet, so preserving this planet has to be as important as getting Mars up and running, (which may not even be possible).

If we can make Mars habitable.. we sure should be able to fix earth. Even with the damage we've done or will do it will be in a hell of a lot better shape then Mars.

 

[MP3Mike]

If we can make Mars habitable.. we sure should be able to fix earth. Even with the damage we've done or will do it will be in a hell of a lot better shape then Mars.

I think the point is that you have to leave the people that are causing the Earth to be inhabitable here so that they don't do the same thing to Mars. (You can't fix everyone)

 

[3Victoria]

If humans are on two planets, they have doubled their chances.

 

[mmd]

This appears to be the exact sitting arrangement for the Trump tower meeting in December, not the White house meeting that just happened. Safra Catz did not attend the Jan 23 meeting.
Please provide a link for your clip if I am wrong. Otherwise, you are confusing people by posting a clip from the Trump Tower meeting 40 days ago, in response to my comment about the white house executive meeting on Jan 23.

 

[sundaymorning]

Seating arrangements now apparently the root cause of the recent rise.

Let's call on the best TMC analyst to chart this graph for us.

 

[schonelucht]

Yes, please add in US taxes, tariffs and what not.
Will they eat away the whole 21k difference or just half of it?

US prices on the website are exclusive taxes and tariffs, so nothing gets eaten away. Elon is on the record that he wants no international markup. And price action of Tesla has always backed that up. There are no import tariffs on Tesla cars into Europe since they are considered European : they are assembled in Tilburg, not Fremont.