The 80MWh project alone with SCE should have been double that revenue?!
Correct.
I think there is a lot of surprise factors lining up for this ER.
SCTY is a giant question mark. We know about the 265M they sold. They could have sold more. Hard to know how much ordinary cashflow from the residuals there is.
ZEVs are a medium sized question mark - we know that they're worth ~$10k / car sold in a ZEV state (4 credits at $2500 market value). My estimation is that about half of sales are to USA, and about half of that to ZEV states. So 1/4 of vehicle sales, or something of the order of 6k cars in 4Q. We know that Tesla sold off basically every ZEV credit it had in 3Q. 6000 cars * $10000 per car is around $60M in possible ZEV sales.
TE is a decent size question mark - we know about Mira Loma and Ta'u, and a few others that were in 4Q, and there's probably a bunch more we don't know about. Most of the ones we know about we only know because the customer said something publically. Tesla has been deliberately quiet, I think. I expect about $50M (MiraLoma being about $30M of it), maybe as much as $100M revenue from TE.
TM margins are also a pretty decent size question mark.
In 3Q16, we sold 25,180 vehicles and recognized $2.3B of revenue doing so. That represents an ASP of $91,342.
In 4Q16, we sold 22,200 vehicles - a difference of 2,980 vehicles.
2,980 cars * $91,342 ASP * 27.7% Automotive GM in 3Q16 = about $75.4M lower profits than 3Q to make up for.
3Q16: 25,180 vehicles * $91,342 ASP * 27.7% GM = $637.1M Profit.
If you hold ASP the same, and increase GM, to achieve the same profit from 4Q16's 22,200 vehicles, you'd need 31.4% GM.
If you hold GM the same, and increase ASP, to achieve the same profit from 4Q16's 22,200 vehicles, you'd need $103,603 ASP.
I suspect reality is somewhere in the middle.
We know that we discontinued X60D - should have a positive impact on ASP, as it was the cheapest MX. 60->75 is a $6,500 upgrade. If the lowest trim represents about 30% of the build mix, that should increase MX ASP by about $2k. MX is about half of the overall build mix, so I would expect this effect to increase overall automotive ASP by $1k.
We know that we increased base price of S60 by $2k - positive to ASP by only about $250. 30% of mix, S is 50% overall.
A higher mix of P100D should also contribute positively to ASP. This one is tough to quantify. Maybe $500-1000?
AP1's pricetag went up by $500 before AP2 introduction. AP has a nearly 100% take rate. I estimate about 25% of the 4Q vehicles were AP1, so that should add $125 to ASP.
AP2's pricetag went up by $2500 relative to the pre-increased AP1 price. Lets assume a 90% take rate. 75% of 4Q vehicles being AP2, so that should add $2500 * 90% * 75% = ~$1675 to ASP.
Can't realize FSD revenue yet, so we'll ignore it.
Altogether, those factors should be additive to ASP in the amount of something like $3500. Additionally, they're additive to GM, on top of savings from improving supplier deals and so on. GM increase of 1.5%
My prediction then, is that:
4Q16: 22,200 vehicles * $95,000 ASP * 29.2% GM = $615.8M
Thus, I believe TE's non-zero contribution is larger than the shortfall in TM's reduced vehicle count. ZEVs are about half of what they were in 3Q, but TE's non-zero contribution eats about half of the difference, leaving about $30M for SCTY to cover. If SCTY makes $30M, then the quarter should be overall profitable.
Additionally RVG vehicles sold in 3Q13 had their RVG's expire in 4Q16, and so the revenue from those that was backed out of GAAP then will show up in 4Q16's GAAP numbers. 3Q13's report says there was $160M in deferred revenues due to the RVG program.