2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[RobStark]

Thanks. What is the rationale for boosting the 15 GWh cells from Japan to 45 GWh? It seems out of place to have such a massive and capable factory so dependent on importing an intermediate product. What am I missing?

Japanese Jobs.

Tesla making promises to Panasonic.

And Panasonic making promises to the Japanese government that Panasonic investments in Nevada would not mothball jobs and economic activity in Japan.

If resource allocation was devoid of petty politics and instead based 100% on rational logic then.......

 

[jhm]

Japanese Jobs.

Tesla making promises to Panasonic.

And Panasonic making promises to the Japanese government that Panasonic investments in Nevada would not mothball jobs and economic activity in Japan.

If resource allocation was devoid of petty politics and instead based 100% on rational logic then.......

Right. I saw that for the first 15 GWh, but did not think it needed to be extended past that. What about other Gigafactories? Say we have a Gigafactory in EU that is more focused on autos and finished packs. Could Tesla divert the 45 GWh cell supply from Japan to EU GF and make happy with the politicians?

 

[RoadsterPlease]

Looks like the stock is dropping here in Germany

 

[Tslynk67]

Just reacting to NASDAQ PM, no?

I expect a rise on USA opening.

 

[FredTMC]

This premarket weakness seems fishy to me.

I see two analyst upgrades so far. RBC and RW Baird. Both now have over $300 PTs

I'm a buyer here. Pulled the trigger

 

[jhm]

We could be setting up for a post ER discount. It seems with Tesla you're always better off waiting to buy until after the news comes out. Just wait until the bears give it to you.

 

[Irishjugg]

What jumps out at me from the 4th quarter report is the piss-poor sales of the Model X. How can a full-size luxury sedan, which is a car class whose sales as a whole have been on a massive downward spiral, outsell a luxury SUV, which is in a class of cars whose sales are shooting to the stars.

Just a TERRIBLE mistake by Musk and everyone gives him a pass. Take those FWDs away and the car comes out a year sooner, costs a billion dollars less to design, and sells twice as many, at twice the profitability.

I'm the biggest Tesla and Elon fan there is, but he needs to be held responsible for that massive blunder called the "X". And more importantly, he needs to fix it so Tesla can actually start taking advantage of the SUV market. The S was and is a grand slam. The X, no matter what any current owners says, is a MASSIVE failure and is detriment to the future of Tesla.

Come on Elon - FIX IT!!

It doesn't struggle to sell because of the doors, it struggles because it looks weird to a lot of people. I personally think it looks like a fat model S in all but two colors. Perhaps the design of the doors played into the shape some, but the more likely reason was the (fairly necessary) focus on reducing drag coefficient.

 

[Tslynk67]

Every single person, bar none, that I spoken to regarding MX thinks it's amazing and the FWD's blow their mind. Unfortunately most of these people cannot afford the car, neither an MS, but they sure are interested in the M3.

For my part, I'd love an MX, would be much more practical for the family, but as I already have a P85, which is still totally awesome, I'm not inclined to throw a load of cash for the upgrade. If I were coming from no Tesla at all then I'd buy an MX in a heartbeat.

 

[FredTMC]

This premarket weakness seems fishy to me.

I see two analyst upgrades so far. RBC and RW Baird. Both now have over $300 PTs

I'm a buyer here. Pulled the trigger

Capital raise is coming. Per Elon. Im guessing within a week or two. Similar to prior times.

Geez, with a few billion raised there's ZERO risk of Tesla running out of cash before Model 3 ramp.

AND model 3 has huge backlog and GM targeted to be similar to S and X

Bottom line is Tesla seems to be set up well to trade into 300s soon

 

[mickificki]

Did Elon say why the Fremont factory was shut down? Re-tooling? M3 reasons? I tried listening to the audio but quality was awful.

 

[Cattledog]

Right. I saw that for the first 15 GWh, but did not think it needed to be extended past that. What about other Gigafactories? Say we have a Gigafactory in EU that is more focused on autos and finished packs. Could Tesla divert the 45 GWh cell supply from Japan to EU GF and make happy with the politicians?

It's certainly possible that Gigafactory 3 or 4 is in Asia and that country might be Japan instead of China or India.

 

[pGo]

I understood he's 'keeping some powder dry' for announcements on future GF development later this year, @pGo.

Damn it seeking alpha transcript.

 

[sahanim]

Just reacting to NASDAQ PM, no?

I expect a rise on USA opening.

naw. there will be "profit" taking.... i expect it to dip for atleast the first hour

ended up getting in a slightly out of the money straddle exposing myself to more risk on the downside than the up.
should end up being a fairly neutral strategy

 

[EinSV]

Investors Perspective Google Hangout Discussion of Tesla's Q4 ER-CC Results

The recording process used 39 Gigs of drive space before so we finished talking, so the video is incomplete.

Great call guys -- lots of very helpful information and perspectives.

 

[green48]

Quick question : where should I find SCTY revenue? In Q3 SCTY revenue was $97M from periodic billing, $7M from energy credits, $18M from loan arrangements $57M from direct sales and $20M from upfront incentives. This quarter, total for energy storage and generation is $131M. So clearly there is some reconciliation to do. (End goal is to estimate energy storage revenue)

Last quarter, SCTY sold (instead of leased) 13% of 186MW total deployed or 24MW which turned into $57M revenue from direct sales. This quarter, TSLA sold 28% of 201MW or 56MW (+133%) Assuming revenue follows the same growth we should see energy generation revenue from direct sales of $133M. But that is already more than the $131M reported. And that's without taking into account periodic billing revenue on earlier installs nor storage revenue?!? I must be missing something obvious here but I don't see it. Anyone can help me?

Looking at the Q4 report, Tesla said only the last five weeks of the quarter for SCTY were included in their financial statements (Deal closed on Nov. 21st). So I think that's why most of SCTY's revenue isn't showing up in the Q4 report.

 

[dc_h]

Right. I saw that for the first 15 GWh, but did not think it needed to be extended past that. What about other Gigafactories? Say we have a Gigafactory in EU that is more focused on autos and finished packs. Could Tesla divert the 45 GWh cell supply from Japan to EU GF and make happy with the politicians?

Or assemble packs in Japan or China for cars shipped to Asia. Reducing currency risk and possibly reducing tariffs a la Tilburg.

 

[racer26]

To be honest, i'm not really happy with this ER.

I don't like the H1 guidance of "just" 47-50k deliveries.
It basically implies no growth at all from H2 2016.

How can Tesla claim"record orders" during Q4 and still projecting flat numbers. I don't get it.

Simple:

They can claim record orders and flat deliveries, because they are running at capacity. The factory can't build them any faster right now, and they don't have resources to devote to increasing S/X capacity without risking Model 3 launch. Additionally, it might not make sense to increase S/X capacity further if Model 3 is going to cannibalize some of the demand for S/X.

 

[schonelucht]

Looking at the Q4 report, Tesla said only the last five weeks of the quarter for SCTY were included in their financial statements (Deal closed on Nov. 21st). So I think that's why most of SCTY's revenue isn't showing up in the Q4 report.

Thanks. That's the obvious thing I was missing. Is SCTY going to report seperately for the rest of the quarter?

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Capital raise is coming. Per Elon. Im guessing within a week or two. Similar to prior times.

Geez, with a few billion raised there's ZERO risk of Tesla running out of cash before Model 3 ramp.

AND model 3 has huge backlog and GM targeted to be similar to S and X

Bottom line is Tesla seems to be set up well to trade into 300s soon

I believe too ironically doing a capital raise would let the SP rise above 300.

 

[JBRR]

"President Trump to meet with manufacturing executives at The White House President Trump announced he will meet with the CEOs of America's largest manufacturing firms and trade groups at The White House on February 23 at 10:30 am."

Tesla among the invites obv.