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This is a classic Wall Street takedown with fast money profit taking mixed in. Has happened before will happen again. Time your buys and take advantage. Think TSLA well out of valley of death. Am confident in future stock price of 500 within two years. IMO
tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
Probably the second biggest surprise from the call (first being Wheeler's leaving) was the flip-flopping on an end-of-March continuation of the M3 reveal. Suddenly, poof, gone, vanished in an instant, with Elon stammering about maybe July now. What happened?! I'm disappointed. This is a pretty big change from what's been said previously. Surprised people aren't more concerned about this.
Mike Smith
Active Member
Man, you really don't understand why the S does so well, you really don't understand the X's design issues, and you are so darn vocal about the incorrect things. Take a chill pill and learn from others, basically every part of your premises are incorrect.
The S doesn't lead it's class because it's electric, it leads because it is the absolute best car in its class and additionally people like the look.
The X doesn't lead it's class due several reasons. For one, Tesla doesn't produce enough to be class leading. For two, the shape look of the vehicle is very polarizing many don't like it. People care much more about the overall look than how the doors operate and you are being stubborn and ignorant to consistently say otherwise.
You are getting dislikes because you are spouting poorly supported nonsense, repeating it over and over, ignoring explanations, basically acting like everyone who disagrees with you kicked your dog. From my vantage point you unquestionably deserve it.
The letter says they deployed 98MWh in Q4, 80MWh of that was Mira Loma. So it's not possible for the Kauai project (56MWh) to also have been deployed in Q4, and the letter doesn't actually say that, it only mentions it as one of their recent projects. I suspect is was done in Q3.
My spreadsheet accounts for 96.3MWh of projects in Q4, pretty close to the actual number
Yesterday Nomura Downgrades NVIDIA to Sell, PT $90.00
Today BMO takes PT from $100 to $85
Negative comments obviously to go along with the price cuts.
hockeythug
Active Member
Analyst report saying AMD is serious competition again. Wake me when that actually happens. I know that they have Vega coming out but it's obvious Nvidia is just waiting for that to come out to lay the smack down again as they have been for years now. Currently their cards are far superior and it's not even close.
*disclosure: GTX 1080 owner*
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mmd
Active Member
Multiple Giga factories => Multiple cap raises. That's how I see it.
I'm feeling dizzy hearing those ginormous numbers, when current production is much less than 1 GWh a year.
Wake me up when Tesla produces 1 GWh a month at the GF. That's just 16k Model 3 a month.
They have too many reservations. A second reveal would make the line longer.
mmd
Active Member
Incorrect. SCE was deployed with GF cells, that only began production on Jan 4th and poject was completed Feb 1st. Same with Kaua'i; used GF cells that started production in January.The letter says they deployed 98MWh in Q4, 80MWh of that was Mira Loma. So it's not possible for the Kauai project (56MWh) to also have been deployed in Q4, and the letter doesn't actually say that, it only mentions it as one of their recent projects. I suspect is was done in Q3.
My spreadsheet accounts for 96.3MWh of projects in Q4, pretty close to the actual number
IMO, this 98 MWh in Q4 is mostly battery packs sold for AMS projects.
PS: Entertaining Cramer video. Just give me the money!
Cramer: Tesla conference call was 'one for the books'
I believe the new gigafactories won't cost Tesla anything. You have the precedent of huge incentives paid to Tesla for the Nevada Gigafactory location and with the Buffalo solar panel factory, you have the State actually paying for the equipment and leasing the building for a token amount, $1/year? Tesla can guarantee a number of high paying jobs and countries will bid against each other basically giving Tesla the land, building and equipment as long as they provide the jobs.
Elon said it was exciting news and they wanted to keep their powder dry, so I don't think the new Gigafactories will actually cost Tesla anything.
Exactly.
This actually is the only move for Tesla.
If a March Model 3 reveal happens it will 1) significantly impact Model S and X sales (probably for the rest of the 2017) and 2) increase the Model 3 orders line even longer.
The reveal MUST be at the latest of the latest moment, the close to Model 3 production the better in order to try to not osborne sales of Model S and X.
Tesla needs to transfer some of those Model 3 orders to Model S and X, not the opposite. For that they need to go "radio silence" in everything related to M3 until the last moment possible and fully increase the awareness for Model S and X.
The good thing, is that this actually proves that they really have a big line of Model 3 orders and 1 or 2 years production full.
mmd
Active Member
GF in Nevada will cost $5B even with the Nevada incentives. Nevada is not building it for Tesla.
If it was free, Tesla would not have raised $2B in bonds back in 2014 for the GF. Tesla said at that time, partners (none so far, except Panasonic) will bring in $3B.
But technically you are right. it won't cost Tesla anything, if they can get the capital from shareholders.
if not for new capital raise, more GFs at this point makes no sense, when current GF is barely utilized.
Don't take my word; see what the biggest TSLA bull is saying. He is openly rejecting what Elon just said yesterday about all the volume goals for M3. Tesla doesn't need even a single GF for 2k M3 a month.
In 2014, the market laughed at Tesla's audacity to build the Gigafactory behemoth. Most thought the jobs were pie in the sky. Well now the Gigafactory is actually producing product, and jobs. I think the Buffalo factory is a better model for future factories. Countries own the land, building, and provide the manufacturing equipment for a token lease by Tesla. Tesla will provide xx number of jobs and allow that country to become a focal point for battery manufacturing.
I would also be curious (and maybe someone here knows better) how much more inexpensive it would be to build a GF in somewhere like China or Spain. I don't know what they'd get in tax breaks, but just things like cheaper permitting or labor costs might factor in.
jhm
Well-Known Member
And as much of conservative rhetoric likes to pretend this isn't effective. Spend a hour researching how heavily the chinese government has supported its "strategic" manufacturing industries. The results show up with the trade deficit.
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