2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[AcesDealt]

You guys realize how damning that ap2 video is right? That was in the top 10% of easiest driving conditions.

It is going to be a struggle to solve fsd. Tesla doesn't lack vision. They lack execution. I have no idea why apple doesn't buy them out. Apple can weather the horrible economics of tesla energy and master all relationships with third parties or limitations of capital. Further, automotive is big enough to move the dial, even for apple.

Also stock options are valued by black scholes. They aren't worth zero and they aren't worth an arbitrary determination of the ceo.

 

[BobSk]

You guys realize how damning that ap2 video is right? That was in the top 10% of easiest driving conditions.

It is going to be a struggle to solve fsd. Tesla doesn't lack vision. They lack execution. I have no idea why apple doesn't buy them out. Apple can weather the horrible economics of tesla energy and master all relationships with third parties or limitations of capital. Further, automotive is big enough to move the dial, even for apple.

Also stock options are valued by black scholes. They aren't worth zero and they aren't worth an arbitrary determination of the ceo.

Can't agree with anything you said here. Except this sentence: "Tesla doesn't lack vision."

 

[30seconds]

Funny who shows up around here only when the stock goes down a bit.

Anyways - basically the Goldman report implies <10,000 Model 3 in 2017 along with a slow ramp in 2018 to get to 100,000 shipped total by the end of 2018. Clearly only a fraction of what the company is guiding for. Importantly a run rate of 2,000 Model 3 per week sometime in Q3 sets Tesla on a path to exceed the Goldman speculation for 2018 & a 5,000 / week rate would crush it. For reference S+X manufacturing is running around 2,000 per week.

So June, July & August will be really interesting.

 

[racer26]

So what happens to all the price targets of these analysts that don't believe management (and are therefore borderline accusing them of securities fraud, since we were literally just told that it's on track to blow these guys estimates so far out of the water it isn't funny), when Fremont actually starts cranking out Model 3's in a quantity sufficient to top 50k in 2017?

Their abysmally low PTs all seem to be based on assuming that TE is worthless, SCTY is worthless, and Model 3 will be more than a year late to its advertised run rate.

 

[Papafox]

You guys realize how damning that ap2 video is right? That was in the top 10% of easiest driving conditions.

It is going to be a struggle to solve fsd. Tesla doesn't lack vision. They lack execution. I have no idea why apple doesn't buy them out. Apple can weather the horrible economics of tesla energy and master all relationships with third parties or limitations of capital. Further, automotive is big enough to move the dial, even for apple.

Also stock options are valued by black scholes. They aren't worth zero and they aren't worth an arbitrary determination of the ceo.

AcesDealt, why don't you share with us your level of experience using Tesla autopilot so that we can better understand your level of expertise in this field. After a quick review of your posts, it looks like 100% of them are in one of two investing threads. Have you even driven a Tesla before?

 

[AcesDealt]

Can't agree with anything you said here. Except this sentence: "Tesla doesn't lack vision."

You are hoping for upvotes and are probably below average.

AcesDealt, why don't you share with us your level of experience using Tesla autopilot so that we can better understand your level of expertise in this field. After a quick review of your posts, it looks like 100% of them are in one of two investing threads. Have you even driven a Tesla before?

Never driven one. Is it not your perception that the conditions in this video excluded most of the challenging corner cases? Would you not say this video was demonstrating failure in fairly routine circumstances?

 

[Papafox]

You are hoping for upvotes and are probably below average.



Never driven one. Is it not your perception that the conditions in this video excluded most of the challenging corner cases? Would you not say this video was demonstrating failure in fairly routine circumstances?

The difficulty for autopilot increases as the curve becomes steeper, as the car's speed picks up (more centrifugal force), as the lane becomes unusually wide (more difficulty defining the exact center of lane), and especially as there's only one edge of lane being detected (the right side of lane wasn't showing on the autopilot dash). Further, the dashboard depiction of the car's position relative to the left side of the lane markings did not agree with the position of the car to the actual markings, suggesting that there may be an issue with this particular vehicle.

I would not judge AP 2.0 from this video. It certainly could not handle this particular challenge well, but there are specific situations where my AP 1.0 vehicle has difficulties too. Wide lanes with lots of curves and poor side markings is a tougher challenge than most roads for both flavors of autopilot. Using this video to judge AP 2.0 would be like compiling a collection of SpaceX rocket failures and then suggesting that the company be judged by that video.

Edit: I also watched a video posted by drshan, in which the driver is taking steep turns too quickly for either AP 1.0 or 2.0. to handle. This Tesla owner has jumped on the bandwagon because he's seen a video that is concerning to him, but the issue is completely different and very predictable in outcome in his case.

Have you ever watched the TV news when they have one of those "airplanes are falling out of the sky" newsfests over a period of weeks? There are three accidents and then the news searches the national news to keep the story going. Part of what we're seeing is this same phenomenon.

 

[Mike Smith]

So what happens to all the price targets of these analysts that don't believe management (and are therefore borderline accusing them of securities fraud, since we were literally just told that it's on track to blow these guys estimates so far out of the water it isn't funny), when Fremont actually starts cranking out Model 3's in a quantity sufficient to top 50k in 2017?

Their abysmally low PTs all seem to be based on assuming that TE is worthless, SCTY is worthless, and Model 3 will be more than a year late to its advertised run rate.

I like how in the GS downgrade Tamberrino says the consensus expectations for M3 deliveries this year are too high. Most analysts are expecting around zero so he must be expecting negative deliveries.

 

[AcesDealt]

Meanwhile ft is reporting that a few hedge funds have acquired 6k tons of cobalt, more than a sixth of annual production. They are operating on what i told in November and what certain seekingalpha authors told you over a year ago.

The difficulty for autopilot increases as the curve becomes steeper, as the car's speed picks up (more centrifugal force), as the lane becomes unusually wide (more difficulty defining the exact center of lane), and especially as there's only one edge of lane being detected (the right side of lane wasn't showing on the autopilot dash. Further, the dashboard depiction of the car's position relative to the left side of the lane markings did not agree with the position of the car to the actual markings, suggesting that there may be an issue with this particular vehicle.

I would not judge AP 2.0 from this video. It certainly could not handle this particular challenge well, but there are specific situations where my AP 1.0 vehicle has difficulties too. Wide lanes with lots of curves and poor side markings is a tougher challenge than most roads for both flavors of autopilot. Using this video to judge AP 2.0 would be like compiling a collection of SpaceX rocket failures and then suggesting that the company be judged by that video.

Edit: I also watched a video posted by drshan, in which the driver is taking turns too quickly for either AP 1.0 or 2.0. to handle. This Tesla owner has jumped on the bandwagon because he's seen a video that is concerning to him, but the issue is completely different and very predictable in outcome in his case.

Have you ever watched the TV news when they have one of those "airplanes are falling out of the sky" newsfests over a period of weeks? There are three accidents and then the news searches the national news to keep the story going. Part of what we're seeing is this same phenomenon.

The bottom line is that the system still operates like a dumb child in fairly basic situations. Tesla is basically a story of 5 years of automotive growth, after which they finally master FSD, and the entire time they are burdened by solarcity and tesla energy. This forum is better than most but still garbage. Elon is just a dude. Racer is just a kid who doesn't understand his youthful rationalization, etc.

 

[dennis]

Meanwhile ft is reporting that a few hedge funds have acquired 6k tons of cobalt, more than a sixth of annual production. They are operating on what i told in November and what certain seekingalpha authors told you over a year ago. There are a few smart people here, but there are also a few racer types that would never see contrarian evidence.

The bottom line is that the system still operates like a dumb child in fairly basic situations. Tesla is basically a story of 5 years of automotive growth, after which they finally master FSD, and the entire time they are burdened by solarcity and tesla energy. This forum is better than most but still garbage. Elon is just a dude. Racer is just a kid who doesn't understand his youthful rationalization, etc.

Thank you for telling us that you are smart and most of the rest of us are dumb. I wouldn't have known that if you hadn't brought it up.

 

[AcesDealt]

Utterly unacceptable....and ungrammatical...post has been Moderator-deleted

 

[dennis]

I agree Dennis. You wouldn't ever notice. The difference between you and I is substantial.

I have reported your posts to the moderators for personal attacks. While they may be allowed on Seeking Alpha, they are not allowed here. You can attack the content, but not the person.

 

[AcesDealt]

I have reported your posts to the moderators for personal attacks. While they may be allowed on Seeking Alpha, they are not allowed here.

I will file this information in the appropriate place.

Final warning.

 

[mrdoubleb]

So what happens to all the price targets of these analysts that don't believe management (and are therefore borderline accusing them of securities fraud, since we were literally just told that it's on track to blow these guys estimates so far out of the water it isn't funny), when Fremont actually starts cranking out Model 3's in a quantity sufficient to top 50k in 2017?

Their abysmally low PTs all seem to be based on assuming that TE is worthless, SCTY is worthless, and Model 3 will be more than a year late to its advertised run rate.

Apparently the same thing as to the weatherman on TV when they get the weather wrong: Nothing. I start to have the feeling these are the only two jobs in the world that are independent of performance.

 

[AcesDealt]

Oh Fred, you silly guy... I do appreciate your incredible efforts but there is a difference between being obsessed and making money. I think you will learn that.

 

[Papafox]

The bottom line is that the system still operates like a dumb child in fairly basic situations. Tesla is basically a story of 5 years of automotive growth, after which they finally master FSD, and the entire time they are burdened by solarcity and tesla energy. This forum is better than most but still garbage. Elon is just a dude. Racer is just a kid who doesn't understand his youthful rationalization, etc.

This answer is precisely the reason why I inquired about your experience using Tesla autopilots. The type of street you see problems with here needs to be properly executed by autopilot before true autonomy is possible, but it is one of the more difficult challenges for any Tesla autopilot. I remember using AP 1.0 in Reno, when I was visiting a relative there for a month. Autopilot did well on most streets but I always had trouble with this one street that was wide with continuous curves and no painted right edge of lane markings. This was the only street that AP 1.0 consistently just couldn't handle in my travels within that community, and the street has much in common with the street used in the AP 2.0 video. We're talking about one of the most difficult non-highway challenges, not a "fairly basic situation".

 

[AcesDealt]

This answer is precisely the reason why I inquired about your experience using Tesla autopilots. The type of street you see problems with here needs to be properly executed by autopilot before true autonomy is possible, but it is one of the more difficult challenges for any Tesla autopilot. I remember using AP 1.0 in Reno, when I was visiting a relative there for a month. Autopilot did well on most streets but I always had trouble with this one street that had was wide with continuous curves and no painted right edge of lane markings. This was the only street that AP 1.0 consistently just couldn't handle in my travels within that community, and the street has much in common with the street used in the AP 2.0 video. We're talking about one of the most difficult non-highway challenges, not a "fairly basic situation".

I am not gonna attempt to paint this out in detail, but a system that requires intricate awareness of when it works or doesn't work determined with the effort of an investors bias hoping to retire is not the litmus of the average consumer.

 

[SBenson]

So what happens to all the price targets of these analysts that don't believe management (and are therefore borderline accusing them of securities fraud, since we were literally just told that it's on track to blow these guys estimates so far out of the water it isn't funny), when Fremont actually starts cranking out Model 3's in a quantity sufficient to top 50k in 2017?

Their abysmally low PTs all seem to be based on assuming that TE is worthless, SCTY is worthless, and Model 3 will be more than a year late to its advertised run rate.

Have you listened or read transcripts of CC during the X ramp period? 2015 Q2, Q3, Q4, 2016 Q1? Musk and JB are very capable of outright lying right on the calls.

 

[SPadival]

The difficulty for autopilot increases as the curve becomes steeper, as the car's speed picks up (more centrifugal force), as the lane becomes unusually wide (more difficulty defining the exact center of lane), and especially as there's only one edge of lane being detected (the right side of lane wasn't showing on the autopilot dash).

I agree. The same author has also posted other videos where autopilot does a great job on local roads.

Bears..based on the above video from the same person, I declare the latest update a roaring success /sarc.

 

[PaulRocket]

So I was interested in how much revenue Tesla Energy or more specific the Powerwall might contribute to Q1. Unfortunately it doesn't seem like much. For Q2 however thinks look much rosier. I asked several installers from Australia, the US and Germany about when first installations of the Tesla Powerwall 2 will start.

Green Mountain Power (US):
"We have not received any details from Tesla that would enable us to design the product offering therefore do not have a timeline. Also, the technical specs have not been provided."

Energy Matters (Australia):
"As it stands, the Tesla Powerwall 2's are not in the country yet so in terms of the first installations it is hard to say. We are looking at potential install dates of around April-May time this year."

OffGrid Energy (Australia):
"The latest update from Tesla is that the shipment is expected in late April for the DC Powerwall, and late May for the AC Powerwall. This means that actual installations would start being scheduled for May and June respectively. These estimates are for our customers who already have orders in place for the Powerwall. New orders may have different timeframes depending on when the next shipments from Tesla will be arriving."

Solahart (Australia):
"We are still waiting for the Tesla Powerwall to be released and tested by Solahart Head Office."

The german installers and Tesla Store Frankfurt haven't answered yet, but I will update once I have an answer. From what I'm hearing they also expect installations to start in April.
Elon once said that he expects Powerwall unit sales to exceed vehicle sales. If we add a grain of salt, 50,000 Powerwall sales in 2017 would equal about $300M in revenue. Not bad!