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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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Call me naïve - but based on Tescent's investment, I think we break ATH this week, especially going into quarterly delivery numbers next week. Could set us up for a huge breakout if they beat deliveries by a significant margin. However, TSLA's recent trend is to come under deliveries due to vehicles in transport, so I will probably protect myself buy buying some puts late Friday.
 
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So: Tencent buys up 5% of TSLA and we pop 3%+ on the news.

Today/tomorrow should also bring 8.1 software
Later this week brings SES-10
Quarterly delivery numbers over the weekend.
yeah, but..
:p
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Goldman Cuts Tesla (TSLA) EPS Estimates, Maintains Sell :oops:

Maintains Sell price target of $187.00

Analyst David Tamberrino comments "Shortly after the quarter-end, we expect TSLA to announce its 1Q17 order growth and deliveries – the latter have been tracking significantly higher yoy and above 4Q16’s pace. On our estimates (using the company’s typical quarterly shaping and its sequential change), we forecast deliveries to be approx. 23,500 for 1Q17 (mid-point of 22,500 to 24,500 range), implying a pace toward the lower end of the company’s 1H17 guidance of 47,000 to 50,000 vehicle deliveries and below consensus (24,600). This is lower than our previous assumption (24,500) and we tweak our estimates accordingly."

Tamberrino lowers his FY 2017 EPS estimate from a loss of $0.96 per share to a loss of $1.10. He maintains his $2.60 EPS estimate for FY 2018 but lowers his FY 2019 EPS estimate from $5.97 to $5.95.
 
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For those that track these things-
There is an Apple tie in (indirect) to the Tencent investment
and apparently an on-going one at that with-

  • Tencent, Apple considering chipping in to avoid share dilution
  • The Chinese ride-sharing leader needs capital for R&D

Didi Said to Be Weighing $6 Billion SoftBank-Backed Funding

note: this is an amplification of the excellent rundown by @Bgarret #3743
 
I agree. Harassment has no place in any work place. Hearing that Tesla took appropriate action was at least consoling to the worker and myself. I deal with difficult people at my work all the time, and trust me, they don't give a rates $@& about taking action at my place, they just want to cover up the issue and pretend it doesn't exist.
From what I've seen from friends and family, the first thing that should be done is to file a complaint with the EEOC, then immediately proceed to inform HR. They'll know you mean business, and because it's filed at the Federal level, they won't try retaliation. It sucks that it takes that level of effort in most places of employment, but unless a company is VERY proactive, it's usually the best way to proceed.
 
So you have the big institutions owning 63% of TSLA. Big guys like Fidelity, T Rowe Price, Vanguard, Morgan Stanley and now Tencent. The perception that outlets like CNBC tout is that only small investors would fall for a valuation this high, when in reality 'those in the know' account for the majority of shares. Oh, and don't forget EM owns about 20%.
Actually, there's a bit of a problem for shorts here. Musk 20%, Tencent 5%, institutions 63%, that's 88%. Only 12% of the shares outstanding in the hands of small investors -- and we know some of us are buy-and-hold-for-a-long-time investors. 19% of the shares outstanding are shorted.

This is actually a setup for a genuine short squeeze. It probably won't happen because some of the institutions are short-termers and will sell to the shorts when the shorts decide to cover. But if the institutions hang on, you could find shorters trying to cover 19% of the shares and discovering there aren't that many shares for sale.

Imagine what happens if Tencent buys another 5%... and Musk buys more because he's worried about control... I think eventually some institution shows mercy and sells the shorters shares at very high prices, but you see my point.

So does anyone who is short believe that they know better than those guys? And are happy betting against the brightest engineers in the world? I'd love to have a respectful debate with a guy that actually is short.
It is super dangerous to short a stock like TSLA. The sort of stock you want to short is BTUUQ.
 
Actually, there's a bit of a problem for shorts here. Musk 20%, Tencent 5%, institutions 63%, that's 88%. Only 12% of the shares outstanding in the hands of small investors -- and we know some of us are buy-and-hold-for-a-long-time investors. 19% of the shares outstanding are shorted.

This is actually a setup for a genuine short squeeze. It probably won't happen because some of the institutions are short-termers and will sell to the shorts when the shorts decide to cover. But if the institutions hang on, you could find shorters trying to cover 19% of the shares and discovering there aren't that many shares for sale.

Imagine what happens if Tencent buys another 5%... and Musk buys more because he's worried about control... I think eventually some institution shows mercy and sells the shorters shares at very high prices, but you see my point.


It is super dangerous to short a stock like TSLA. The sort of stock you want to short is BTUUQ.

You're forgetting there are other large shareholders aside from Musk and institutions whose shares aren't really available. The actual number of shares available on the market could be shockingly low at this point - 5% or less of total? This is the stuff short squeezes are made of.
 
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You're forgetting there are other large shareholders aside from Musk and institutions whose shares aren't really available. The actual number of shares available on the market could be shockingly low at this point - 5% or less of total? This is the stuff short squeezes are made of.
I think far more of the institutional shares are available on the market than most people think. Jennison Associates in particular has made pretty large sales in the past. That's why I don't think it's actually that tight right now.

But if positions of institutions like Jennison are replaced by positions of institutions like Tencent... short-sellers watch out!
 
The famous VW short squeeze (+82% in one day, and basically 5x-ing a 200 Euro stock in short order!) was triggered by the following conditions:

12.8% short interest
Porsche disclosing that it controlled 42.6% in direct ownership plus an additional 31.5% in options it intended to exercise
The state of Lower Saxony holding a 20% stake in VW.

That left around 6% of the outstanding shares for float (20% Saxony + 74% Porsche = 94%) to source nearly 13% short interest from.

Lets compare to TSLA's current situation:

19% Short Interest
20% Elon
63% Institutions
5% Tencent

20+63+5 = 88, leaving a float of 12%. Precariously close to about half of the short interest - a very very similar situation to VW.
 
I don't see how this adds to the active float unless you think the institutions are net sellers.

I'm just saying *some* institutions are net sellers. Short sellers are therefore not really going to get squeezed until those institutions are out, and the institutional holdings are all in the hands of long-term, hold-it-till-I-die institutions.

T Rowe Price seems to be buying shares with both hands, so they are not going to sell. Bailie Gifford isn't going to sell. Ron Baron isn't going to sell.

Fidelity... well, both Contrafund and OTC *have* sold a lot of shares, recently. As have other Fidelity mutual funds. As mutual funds, they may have to sell if they have outflows of money, but they seem to be selling in general.

Oddly, this has been balanced out by someone ELSE at Fidelity buying more... if this is Fidelity trading on its own account or on behalf of private buy-and-hold nvestors, that will be really bad news for the short sellers.
 
With all the brouhaha about the absence of HUD in M3, looking at the following exchange, I do not believe that said absence is a done deal. Maybe I am reading too much into this exchange, but it seems that categorical NO for speedometer request may be a hint that the speed readout (HUD) will actually be offered.

image.png
 
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