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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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Could someone explain to me why is it bad that Tencent bought enough shares to own 5% of the company ?
For me it's a very positive catalyst that such a recognized company wants to get shares of Tesla. That means they believe Tesla will achieve great things...
 
Could someone explain to me why is it bad that Tencent bought enough shares to own 5% of the company ?
For me it's a very positive catalyst that such a recognized company wants to get shares of Tesla. That means they believe Tesla will achieve great things...

I think it is positively amazing. Here is a company/entity that understands IT/AI etc... They have their own platforms. They've put a significant stake in TSLA. Almost as if Google or Apple did the same thing. These are not just money guys (e.g- fidelity, Morgan stanley, etc...). They understand the industry and are part of it.

Only caveat is as @racer26 pointed out. But here is where I think Elon's interests and our interests are aligned. He put out a clearly protective equity raise, limiting dilution; and I really think it's because he understood there is a big player buying in that he doesn't know. Hence he is protecting his own ability to control TSLA, and subsequently us minnows (who trust him).
 
Bloomberg had a good piece on the car industry in Alabama. Reading it made me surprised some of these stories weren't national news. People regularly being maimed, losing arms and fingers and such. Someone falls and gets hurt at Fremont and it seems like it is national news within a few hours.
OK, now I'm getting nervous about Elon sleeping in a sleeping bag at the assembly line.
 
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I think it is positively amazing. Here is a company/entity that understands IT/AI etc... They have their own platforms. They've put a significant stake in TSLA. Almost as if Google or Apple did the same thing. These are not just money guys (e.g- fidelity, Morgan stanley, etc...). They understand the industry and are part of it.

Only caveat is as @racer26 pointed out. But here is where I think Elon's interests and our interests are aligned. He put out a clearly protective equity raise, limiting dilution; and I really think it's because he understood there is a big player buying in that he doesn't know. Hence he is protecting his own ability to control TSLA, and subsequently us minnows (who trust him).

Tesla is a very big fish to swallow, even for a company like Tencent. I barley can't imagine what the big Tesla investors would want for a brand like Tesla, so if they buy Tesla I think we, the little guys, will be fine ... Well of course we miss out on the 1 trillion market cap. ;)

BTW. It's maybe not a random investment by Tencent, maybe they talked to Musk, remember there are some big Gigafactory announcements in the future, maybe the Tesla network in China will be DiDi, who knows
 
BTW. It's maybe not a random investment by Tencent, maybe they talked to Musk, remember there are some big Gigafactory announcements in the future, maybe the Tesla network in China will be DiDi, who knows

I very much appreciate your thinking here...........how wonderful it would be if Tencent was the investor for GF3 in China to be announced soon!!!!! I really hope you are right.
 
Bloomberg had a good piece on the car industry in Alabama. Reading it made me surprised some of these stories weren't national news. People regularly being maimed, losing arms and fingers and such. Someone falls and gets hurt at Fremont and it seems like it is national news within a few hours.

<snip>
Now Crutcher, 42, commutes an hour to the General Motors Co. assembly plant in Spring Hill, Tenn., where he’s a member of United Auto Workers. “They teach you the right way,” he says. “They don’t throw you to the wolves.” His pay rose from $12 an hour at Matsu to $18.21 at GM.
<snip>
Korean-owned plants, which make up roughly a quarter of parts suppliers in Alabama, have the most safety violations in the state, accounting for 36 percent of all infractions and 52 percent of total fines, from 2012 to 2016. The U.S. is second, with 23 percent of violations and 17 percent of fines, and Germany is third, with 15 percent and 11 percent. But serious accidents occur in plants from all over, according to more than 3,000 pages of court documents and OSHA investigative files obtained under the Freedom of Information Act.
<snip>
Michaels, who was running OSHA when Elsea was killed, was furious when he learned how it happened. A year earlier, while attending a conference in Seoul, he’d paid a visit to executives at Hyundai Motor Co. and Kia Motors Co. to warn them that OSHA had found serious safety violations at many of their Korean-owned suppliers in the Southeast. Michaels told the carmakers they were squeezing their suppliers too hard. Their productivity demands were endangering lives, and they had to back off.
<snip>
In 2015, a 33-year-old maintenance worker was engulfed in flames at Nakanishi Manufacturing Corp.’s bearing plant in Winterville, Ga.—after four previous fires in the factory’s dust-collection system. The plant’s maintenance chief told the OSHA investigator that he’d been too busy to write up proper lockout procedures for working on the system. The technician suffered third-degree burns all over his upper body. Last year, OSHA levied a $145,000 fine (later negotiated down to $105,000) on the Japanese company, which supplies parts to Toyota Motor Co., for, among other infractions, a willful violation for knowingly exposing workers to unguarded radial presses.

Phyllis Taylor, 53, scorched her hand inside an industrial oven last year at the HP Pelzer Automotive Systems Inc. insulation plant in Thomson, Ga., while baking foam rubber linings for BMW hoods. The oven had been down for repairs earlier that day, and “there was always pressure to catch up,” Taylor says. She slipped on a puddle of oil at her feet, and as she instinctively grabbed the oven in front of her, the door slammed down on her hand. She’d been telling her supervisor for weeks about the oil leak. “They don’t pay you no mind; they just want you to work,” says Taylor, who had skin graft surgery but still can’t close her dominant hand. The plant’s maintenance manager told OSHA, “The focus of this plant is production at all costs.” OSHA fined HP Pelzer $705,000 for 12 “repeat” safety violations.
<snip>
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21 US States Have Energy Storage Pipelines of 20MW or More

According to GTM Research, 21 U.S. states now have 20 megawatts of energy storage projects proposed, in construction or deployed. In fact, 10 U.S. states have pipelines greater than 100 megawatts.

The data comes from GTM Research’s new U.S. Energy Storage Data Hub, part of the company’s Energy Storage Service, launched today.

Energy storage is no longer confined to a handful of U.S. states. GTM Research is tracking 2.5 gigawatts of front-of-meter energy storage projects outside of California. Texas, Hawaii, Ohio and Illinois round out the top five.

According to the Energy Storage Data Hub, states across the nation now have a combined 140 policies and regulations pending or in place concerning front-of-meter energy storage, many of which are driving this geographic expansion. For instance, Utah’s state legislature recently passed a bill pertaining to utility investments in energy storage projects; Oregon and Massachusetts are the second and third states to introduce storage mandates, respectively; and New York City became the first municipality to set a storage target.
<snip>
“Front-of-meter energy storage markets are advancing at a feverish pace, enabled by an intricate set of drivers across states and wholesale markets,” said Ravi Manghani, GTM Research’s director of energy storage. “Declining costs coupled with maturing regulations have led to storage deployments of 10 megawatts or more in 14 states.” While the industry has largely concentrated on California in the recent months, GTM Research has tracked over 120 policies and regulations that impact markets outside of California.
,snip>
 
"Due in just three months in July"
Elon Musk Adds Details On What To Expect From Model 3 - HybridCars.com

We're several months pass this information and even now, some people who aren't even bears still believe the model 3 is due out in July. I'm wondering if we're going to get a slew of articles when July comes around saying the M3 was delayed simply because they don't know any better.


Definitely, it's way better that the stock stays around 280 and skyrocket once the M3 is actually being ramped. Rather than it starts to go up and up from now on until 300+ before July and expectations that M3 will completely be on schedule. Because if that's what happens and that M3 isn't on schedule, TSLA is going to take the beating of his life lol ..
 
"Due in just three months in July"
Elon Musk Adds Details On What To Expect From Model 3 - HybridCars.com

We're several months pass this information and even now, some people who aren't even bears still believe the model 3 is due out in July. I'm wondering if we're going to get a slew of articles when July comes around saying the M3 was delayed simply because they don't know any better.
Model 3 legitimately is due in July now. Earlier on, July was presented as the date for suppliers to be ready. In 4Q16s ER, we were told to expect initial production starting in July.
 
I was very pleased to hear of Tencent's investment in Tesla today. THIS IS HUGE, All along, I have felt that Tesla has made tremendous headway in achieving their goals but that they would benefit greatly from a minority investment from a larger entity, If for no other reason, this provides stabilization and sends a strong signal to shorts that Tesla can survive and thrive despite obstacles that might seem insurmountable without the backing of a larger entity. Most shorts were hoping that Tesla would reach a financial hardship (e.g. market downturn, major recall, poor margins, inability to pay off debt, etc.) and not be able to overcome it - this was their primary thesis. Nothing else. That story is no longer viable.

It turned out that the backing entity was not AAPL or GOOG likely many envisioned. Perhaps such potential partnerships were hindered by ego, differences in vision, etc. I think Cramer makes a good point that money is no longer an issue for Tesla, given that they now have a heavyweight backer who can provided additional support if necessary. While I no longer make short term bets so will not be increasing leverage at this point, I now see a clear path to $400-$500 if Model 3 ramp goes well. This could be an 80-90 million dollar company in the near future, particularly in the context of MBLY (15 B) and UBER (65 B). Ford's or GM's market caps are as irrelevant as Nokia's market cap before the Iphone.

Tesla's goal at this point needs to be to make the Model 3 as reliable as possible, If Model 3 drives like the Model S and is reliable as a Honda Accord, there will be no stopping this company. Reliability first.

No doubt there could be a market slow down at any time, which is why I stay mostly in shares with a smaller number of Jan 19 300s. I will sell my LEAPS as soon as there is hint of a market downturn and convert fully into shares. Then I'll wait out any downturn and possibly buy LEAPS again.

My mistakes in this stock have all been related to greed. The only thing which has worked well is buy and hold which is what I will continue to do.

Good luck.
 
“Front-of-meter energy storage markets are advancing at a feverish pace, enabled by an intricate set of drivers across states and wholesale markets,” said Ravi Manghani, GTM Research’

A precursor to the Back-of-meter pace that will make 'feverish' feel like an ice bath. Unfortunately for the utilities, storage scales efficiently all the way down to their customer

Consider this interesting dynamic:
The Utility sees storage as:
A new-fangled cost effective technology that extends their existing Energy-Plants of capital, production, distribution, and profit to a captured Consumer base of income.
That same Consumer is scheduled to see storage in exactly the opposite way, as:
An already familiar friend (phones, laptops, EVs, etc).
And their enabler, to self-produce their own energy needs using a capital requirement already amortized into their physical requirement for shelter.
Concurrently, repowering all those same familiar storage-using devices;

I don't think 'feverish pace' will quite capture it.
Tsunami comes to mind...
 
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