2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[austinEV]

Enigmatic tweet from Elon:

Elon Musk on Twitter

@drmanejwala @arctechinc On center screen. Also, center screen *will* show speed as an overlay that changes opacity according to relevance.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Data Alert:
Norway YTD deliveries is 1042 as of today, with 4 days to go. Today 44 cars were delivered. Source: itanywhere.no
Norway Q4 2016 was 981 cars, Global was 22,252.

Read as little or as much into this as you want to.

Update 48 hours later at 10PM CET: 1118 cars (14% above Q4). With 2 more days to go, we should come in around 1200.

Note: I expect the "December overhang" to mainly affect deliveries outside the US. So even if (big "if") the rest of Europe and Asia mimicked Norway's trend, don't expect a uniform 20% uptick for the global totals. Having said that, even a 10% overall increase should put us around 25k, which, I think, would be a positive surprise for the markets.

 

[kenliles]

My guess is they probably bought most of the 5% in the lower price range and then only recently bought some more to get above 5%.

Agree - looks heavily weighted on low side. But I agree with @luvb2b they we're adding all the way into $260s at least. Good support for current pricing

 

[kenliles]

Reminder
Historically important SpaceX launch tomorrow.
First reused rocket ever.
Go X!

 

[ggies07]

Enigmatic tweet from Elon:

Elon Musk on Twitter

@drmanejwala @arctechinc On center screen. Also, center screen *will* show speed as an overlay that changes opacity according to relevance.

and the plot thickens!

 

[ggies07]

what what!?! Ford's stock price better start dropping!!

Ford recalls 440K vehicles for fire risk, door latch trouble

The company says engines can overheat, causing the cylinder head to crack and leak oil that can catch fire. Ford has 29 reports of fires, but no injuries.

 

[erthquake]

Enigmatic tweet from Elon:

Elon Musk on Twitter

@drmanejwala @arctechinc On center screen. Also, center screen *will* show speed as an overlay that changes opacity according to relevance.

At least Musk is getting the message that there's some concern from drivers about this issue.

 

[austinEV]

At least Musk is getting the message that there's some concern from drivers about this issue.

Cue the Electrek article in 3...2...1...

 

[erthquake]

California legislature about to unveil a new plan that institutes an additional $100 registration fee for electric and hybrid vehicles starting in 2020 to help pay for road repair and infrastructure. It includes a 12 cent/gallon hike in the gas tax and a 20 cent increase for diesel. The gas and diesel taxes would go into effect when the law takes effect.

California lawmakers to unveil huge transportation deal, new taxes

This sounds pretty reasonable given the recent efficiency gains of ICE cars and that EV drivers should also pay their fair share. Though I'd rather EVs be charged by the mile, it's the diesel trucks and busses that do the most damage to our roads.

 

[azaz]

he keeps talking about it in the context of taxi and thats so weird imo

 

[dirtyofries]

he keeps talking about it in the context of taxi and thats so weird imo

Pushes the autonomous angle.

I'm trying to discern if they're further along than is let on, or it's just hyping.

 

[Starno]

I'm pretty sure the next biggest launch from the company isn't a new car model but rather a service that will compete with Uber. But completely autonomous vehicles !!!!

Guys it's about to get real, at the time they release this new, you can count on at least 65B worth more of capitalization.

 

[austinEV]

Pushes the autonomous angle.

I'm trying to discern if they're further along than is let on, or it's just hyping.

I think Elon thinks its a done deal. Like 99.9% self driving within the year. I bet he thinks that, anyway. A more pragmatic timeline would be 2-3 years, but it feels like Elon is putting the hardware way out in front of the software here.

 

[AcesDealt]

I've done work in machine learning for 10 years, and I've gone to mobility meetups in SV where the topic is super-hot. It's my opinion that level 4 AP is farther away than people, particularly the engineer\entrepreneurs, expect and there will be a substantial period of disillusionment. And then it will happen. If Elon thinks FSD is coming in next 2 years, he is wrong. If he thinks that machines are eventually going to replace humanity, and that this requires some serious consideration, well then welcome on board [finally].

But this happens in AI all the time. In the 60s many famous top names and pioneers decided they'd get together over one summer and bang out a human level AI. They were encouraged by early success at things like proof solving, and checkers. As far as I know, they didn't succeed.

At the same time, even if it's 5+ years away, there's some value in skating to the puck early because I think it's part of the magic of building a brand. People will learn to say 'dude -- you just don't get it. Tesla is the future.' to people who own other cars and are addicted to their old designs. The brand is built by their sense of superiority.

 

[Mike Smith]

First M3s will be delivered to the general public in late 2017, after employees. This lines up with when they expect the cars to be self-driving. That is why Musk said 'you won't care' about the instrument panel - you'll just enter a destination and a maximum speed and that's it. Note that this won't require regulatory approval - someone just has to be in the driver's seat. This is going to drive massive demand for all Tesla vehicles, and it isn't going to be years away like everyone thinks.

People are confusing this with the next step - driverless autonomy, which is when the Tesla Network launches and Tesla becomes a trillion dollar company. That will be at least a few years from now, although it could come faster in countries with bold governments who understand the massive benefits to society this will bring.

 

[MitchJi]

Update 48 hours later at 10PM CET: 1118 cars (14% above Q4). With 2 more days to go, we should come in around 1200.

Note: I expect the "December overhang" to mainly affect deliveries outside the US. So even if (big "if") the rest of Europe and Asia mimicked Norway's trend, don't expect a uniform 20% uptick for the global totals. Having said that, even a 10% overall increase should put us around 25k, which, I think, would be a positive surprise for the markets.

What do "we" (anyone, but particularly @vgrinshpun ) think will be the impact of hiring the workers for the third shift on Q1 production and deliveries?

 

[MitchJi]

Baird Bullish on Tesla (TSLA) Into Q1 Deliver Data Next Week; Calls Tencent Stake a 'Vote of Confidence'

They expect another Model 3 event before July, which should be a positive catalyst, and expect TSLA shares will make new highs with continued execution towards the Model 3 production ramp.

If Tesla skips the part 3 reveal IMO that probably means either no HUD or spaceship like features or that there's a delay adding it to the S-X.

 

[MitchJi]

You should get your wish now, since Elon tweeted, directly this time, that there is no HUD.

Days later and way to much of the bandwidth of the thread is still being wasted on speculation about this non-issue (at least until we know more).

Including my previous post .

 

[mmd]

FYI ~ Tesla delivery team working magic to ensure delivery by 31Mar17 Did I say jumping thru their butt? Not sure the falcon wings can make the flight to my house, but hoping

Please stop with all this FUD You will start getting lots of dislikes here. There are plenty of orders in line before yours to be filled first.
But I'd say, you will be getting your car pretty quickly, considering:
a) you could be located anywhere on 'Mother Earth'
b) ordered on Feb 22.
c) Tesla acknowledged a factory shutdown for a week/2 weeks around Feb 18th.

...(Cutting out loads of ramblinigs..)

Yesterday (22Feb17), after touching buttons, sitting in seats and looking over the colors, we ordered our (okay ~ my) BLUE MX (yes, I have to wait for May 2017). It will be hers for all practical purposes I received absolutely nothing, no free hats (I need my hats damn it), no free mats, and no better interest rate than the next guy or gal ~ oh I was thanked for my service when I asked for a military discount. I will be asking someone nearby for a reference code, but barring that I'll be looking for a filler.

 

[Crowded Mind]

Please stop with all this FUD You will start getting lots of dislikes here. There are plenty of orders in line before yours to be filled first.
But I'd say, you will be getting your car pretty quickly, considering:
a) you could be located anywhere on 'Mother Earth'
b) ordered on Feb 22.
c) Tesla acknowledged a factory shutdown for a week/2 weeks around Feb 18th.

He's literally said for weeks that he was unable to take delivery in March do to his own schedule, not Tesla's, so I don't have any idea what point you think you are so happily making.