2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[ktrivedi70]

Hello everyone. Longtime lurker here (also TSLA and Model S 75D owner) who's been impressed with the conversations in these investment forums. Just one interesting observation/question. The most reasoned, well thought out, reality-based bear arguments seem to be brought up by the bulls. Those arguments make me temper my feelings for TSLA to more reasonable levels. That's a good thing.
And the most poorly thought out, anecdotal, fact-twisty arguments are brought up by the true bears (2 in particular), which, paradoxically, make me overly optimistic about TSLA. Am I alone in this?

Sorry if this derails the conversation, but I just wanted to weigh in.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

I've been suspecting that Tesla was intentionally keeping supercharger deployment down to a dull roar this year because supercharger V3 was imminent. The announcement of a coming very-rapid expansion indicates to me that.

1. New superchargers will be V3.

Or

2. New superchargers are designed to be easily upgradeable to V3.

Note: I don't expect any crazy increases in charge speed with V3.

 

[NicoV]

Dang, videos like this scare the crap out of me. While the statistics still show the rate of fires in Tesla are very low, seeing a car burn into NOTHING, while the ICE counterpart is still largely intact makes me realize that there is SOME truth to the whole burning batteries story the haters like to push. Also, it is fairly obvious here that the X caught on fire and then it spread to the Focus (one picture shows the X consumed in fire while the Focus barely has a fire at the very front of the car).

Just like everything else, the truth is somewhere in the middle. While the batteries are not nearly as dangerous as the haters like to tell everyone, they also aren't nearly as safe as we Tesla fans want to believe. Tesla cars that catch on fire almost always burn completely with nothing like but a frame when the fire is extinguished. Had those people not been able to exit the car, there was absolutely ZERO chance of survival. That statement may also be true of the Ford Focus.

I sure wish we could get better stats on car fires - especially by model year. If most ICE car fires are in cars 5 year or older, then that cannot be compared with the rate of fires in Tesla's cars since Tesla doesn't have cars over 5 years old yet (the Roadster withstanding since there simply aren't enough to really gather meaningful stats from).

I have been looking to buy my wife, and eventually my daughter a Tesla for a couple of years now. But, I can't lie. Videos like the one in the link give me great pause.

Afaik, up to now zero people have died in a burning Tesla. Actually, zero people even got burned. Except for some shorts.

 

[EinSV]

Hello everyone. Longtime lurker here (also TSLA and Model S 75D owner) who's been impressed with the conversations in these investment forums. Just one interesting observation/question. The most reasoned, well thought out, reality-based bear arguments seem to be brought up by the bulls. Those arguments make me temper my feelings for TSLA to more reasonable levels. That's a good thing.
And the most poorly thought out, anecdotal, fact-twisty arguments are brought up by the true bears (2 in particular), which, paradoxically, make me overly optimistic about TSLA. Am I alone in this?

Sorry if this derails the conversation, but I just wanted to weigh in.

You are not alone.

IMO, most of the bears on social media post 98% nonsense and most of the other 2% has already been discussed, usually ad nauseum. Fire discussion is a case in point. The goal is to manipulate sentiment, lately without success.

 

[JBRR]

Hello everyone. Longtime lurker here (also TSLA and Model S 75D owner) who's been impressed with the conversations in these investment forums. Just one interesting observation/question. The most reasoned, well thought out, reality-based bear arguments seem to be brought up by the bulls. Those arguments make me temper my feelings for TSLA to more reasonable levels. That's a good thing.
And the most poorly thought out, anecdotal, fact-twisty arguments are brought up by the true bears (2 in particular), which, paradoxically, make me overly optimistic about TSLA. Am I alone in this?

Sorry if this derails the conversation, but I just wanted to weigh in.

I try to read all the bear theses I can find.
At this point I'm so heavily invested in TSLA that I want to watch this basket of eggs very closely.
So far it has only made me more confident in my bet.

I try to mimic someone much smarter than me as much as possible:
"“It’s bad to have an opinion you’re proud of if you can’t state the arguments for the other side better than your opponents. This is a great mental discipline.”

"It’s waiting that helps you as an investor, and a lot of people just can’t stand to wait.”

"“You’re looking for a mispriced gamble,” says Munger. “That’s what investing is. And you have to know enough to know whether the gamble is mispriced. That’s value investing.” At another time he added: “You should remember that good ideas are rare— when the odds are greatly in your favor, bet heavily.”

- Charlie Munger

Charlie Munger on Getting Rich, Wisdom, Focus, Fake Knowledge and More

 

[Yggdrasill]

I've been suspecting that Tesla was intentionally keeping supercharger deployment down to a dull roar this year because supercharger V3 was imminent. The announcement of a coming very rapid expansion indicates to me that.

1. New superchargers will be V3.

Or

2. New superchargers are designed to be easily upgradeable to V3.

Note: I don't expect any crazy increases in charge speed with V3.

I expect that the Supercharger V3 will support at least 4 bays per charger. This could bring the total charging power per charger up to something like 500 kW. Going by the last renders, the Supercharger V3 might be even more massive, maybe it could distribute 1 MW across ten stalls or something.

 

[Fallenone]

OK on the accident in China. From what I've read in Chinese media/forum, the owner was with her boyfriend riding the Model X driven by their driver who just got his driver licence. According to Chinese law, the driver was not allowed to drive on highway at that time. Neither the driver nor the two passengers were wearing seat belts. Obviously, insurance company is not going to pay for the damage because so many faults were on the owner's side. As a result, she now wants to make Tesla pay. Hence this news is popping out now, instead of 2 months ago when it happened.

 

[AudubonB]

Afaik, up to now zero people have died in a burning Tesla. Actually, zero people even got burned. Except for some shorts.

Whence the expression: Pants on fire.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Yes, written by an adult, but a lazy one. As I understand it, Tesla earns the kind of profits on every "$100,000 car they sell to rich people" that other manufacturers would kill for. However, they are recycling those profits into company infrastructure to make the next big leap, which is the Model 3. Why is that so difficult to figure out? Or am I mistaken?
Robin

Agree. Still a bunch of terrible bear argument that can be disproved with a little research that nearly all writers neglect to do.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Just wanted to post the weather forecast for Shortsville: Shortsville, NY (14548) 10-Day Weather Forecast - The Weather Channel | Weather.com

I'm interested in what happens beginning on May 4. Looks like it could last for a while.

LOL lots of rain or what looks like tears.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Hello everyone. Longtime lurker here (also TSLA and Model S 75D owner) who's been impressed with the conversations in these investment forums. Just one interesting observation/question. The most reasoned, well thought out, reality-based bear arguments seem to be brought up by the bulls. Those arguments make me temper my feelings for TSLA to more reasonable levels. That's a good thing.
And the most poorly thought out, anecdotal, fact-twisty arguments are brought up by the true bears (2 in particular), which, paradoxically, make me overly optimistic about TSLA. Am I alone in this?

Sorry if this derails the conversation, but I just wanted to weigh in.

There is only one reason why shorts hang around these forums, and that is to manipulate people to sell the stock as much as they can.

Their time is better spent formulating some sort of exit strategy to avoid a short squeeze, but it may be too late.

 

[Papafox]

Regarding Tesla safety discussions, the global Tesla fleet has now covered nearly 4 billion miles. To point out one or two instances of driver-caused high speed collisions where the results were disappointing is folly, because in any other vehicle type the statistics would be far worse.

Also, a statement preceded by "To the best of my knowledge" indicates that exhaustive research has not been done to determine if there are one or two exceptions to the rule. The point is to say that occurrences of the point under consideration are so rare as to be negligible.

Nobody takes human life casually here, but as Elon Musk points out, perfect safety is an impossible dream. What Tesla is striving for, and accomplishing so far, is massive improvements in safety. I choose to drive a Tesla largely because my safety and the safety of my passengers is of paramount importance.

 

[AudubonB]

Just wanted to post the weather forecast for Shortsville: Shortsville, NY (14548) 10-Day Weather Forecast - The Weather Channel | Weather.com

I'm interested in what happens beginning on May 4. Looks like it could last for a while.

One of you with a Twitter account should send this to Mr Musk's account.....

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Note: I don't expect any crazy increases in charge speed with V3.

From what I understand, v3 may bring charging time to 5-10 minutes. I would call that a "crazy increase" in charging speed.

 

[DurandalAI]

Yeah, good luck telling them to go wait for 60 mins every 2-3 days to charge up at almost same or higher price than gassing up. Wasn't that the big time saver argument, that people don't need to stop for 3 mins every 2 weeks?

It may be a hurdle for a while, but I expect that just like more upscale apartment complexes have amenities such as swimming pools, exercise rooms, BBQ grills, and game rooms, that things such as a couple L2 chargers for each building won't be much of a struggle.
Work charging may be an option for some, along with other destination charging.

Of course, eventually you could just have your M3 drive itself to the local SC to charge itself. Probably a couple of years away, but probably so is Tesla catching up with the M3 reservations.

 

[stopcrazypp]

OK on the accident in China. From what I've read in Chinese media/forum, the owner was with her boyfriend riding the Model X driven by their driver who just got his driver licence. According to Chinese law, the driver was not allowed to drive on highway at that time. Neither the driver nor the two passengers were wearing seat belts. Obviously, insurance company is not going to pay for the damage because so many faults were on the owner's side. As a result, she now wants to make Tesla pay. Hence this news is popping out now, instead of 2 months ago when it happened.

Thanks for the update. Just as I suspected, they weren't wearing seatbelts (as is typical in China). It's pretty unlikely to smash their face like that if they were wearing seat belts, and the driver shouldn't have sustained as much damage if he wore a seatbelt. China really needs to change their anti-seat belt culture.

 

[jbcarioca]

From what I understand, v3 may bring charging time to 5-10 minutes. I would call that a "crazy increase" in charging speed.

Just for reality it might be appropriate to look at the Tesla patent, posted elsewhere on the forum, that shows both a physical underwear charging connection and an undercut cooling connection. the 5-10 minutes, if it happens, will probably use both parts of this patent or something similar, thus suggesting hat it might not be retrofittable, or at least not cheaply retrofittable.
Tesla Charging Patent
Tesla patent shows new way to automated high-speed charging with external cooling

When this or something like this has been deployed we might anticipate another sharp increase in TSLA share prices. How soon will something like this happen? I'll guess two years.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Dang, videos like this scare the crap out of me. While the statistics still show the rate of fires in Tesla are very low, seeing a car burn into NOTHING, while the ICE counterpart is still largely intact makes me realize that there is SOME truth to the whole burning batteries story the haters like to push. Also, it is fairly obvious here that the X caught on fire and then it spread to the Focus (one picture shows the X consumed in fire while the Focus barely has a fire at the very front of the car).

Just like everything else, the truth is somewhere in the middle. While the batteries are not nearly as dangerous as the haters like to tell everyone, they also aren't nearly as safe as we Tesla fans want to believe. Tesla cars that catch on fire almost always burn completely with nothing like but a frame when the fire is extinguished. Had those people not been able to exit the car, there was absolutely ZERO chance of survival. That statement may also be true of the Ford Focus.

I sure wish we could get better stats on car fires - especially by model year. If most ICE car fires are in cars 5 year or older, then that cannot be compared with the rate of fires in Tesla's cars since Tesla doesn't have cars over 5 years old yet (the Roadster withstanding since there simply aren't enough to really gather meaningful stats from).

I have been looking to buy my wife, and eventually my daughter a Tesla for a couple of years now. But, I can't lie. Videos like the one in the link give me great pause.

I can't help but to think there is no difference when you are dead in an ICE car with 100% burned vs 50%. I'm pretty sure it makes no difference to the victim.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Just for reality it might be appropriate to look at the Tesla patent, posted elsewhere on the forum, that shows both a physical underwear charging connection and an undercut cooling connection. the 5-10 minutes, if it happens, will probably use both parts of this patent or something similar, thus suggesting hat it might not be retrofittable, or at least not cheaply retrofittable.
Tesla Charging Patent
Tesla patent shows new way to automated high-speed charging with external cooling

When this or something like this has been deployed we might anticipate another sharp increase in TSLA share prices. How soon will something like this happen? I'll guess two years.

Elon tweeted about v3 back in December and said something along the lines of 350 kw power being children's toy.

I expect it to be announced in July with the Model 3 and installed starting 4Q17. They don't really need it until 1H18 since that's when the fleet will really start multiplying.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Hello everyone. Longtime lurker here (also TSLA and Model S 75D owner) who's been impressed with the conversations in these investment forums. Just one interesting observation/question. The most reasoned, well thought out, reality-based bear arguments seem to be brought up by the bulls. Those arguments make me temper my feelings for TSLA to more reasonable levels. That's a good thing.
And the most poorly thought out, anecdotal, fact-twisty arguments are brought up by the true bears (2 in particular), which, paradoxically, make me overly optimistic about TSLA. Am I alone in this?

Sorry if this derails the conversation, but I just wanted to weigh in.

2 bear thesis I can accept at this point is the manufacturing complexities still unknown to Tesla thus recks projections (even if this happens doesn't mean doom and gloom for Tesla). And God forbids something happens to EM. The other reasons publicly recycled are so twisted to the informed.