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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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VIP factory tour invites are out. Scheduled for June 2and 3. Will include q&a with Franz.

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This is a referral prize. Prize winners get 3 plus ones...

Need to crowd source our Franz questions!

AustinEV, my old buddy,
You realize that if that reservation is yours you're going to have a mighty easy time making friends on this forum between now and the factory tour.
Your good friend,
Papafox
 
I don't think the way it works if you make cars in China is that you have to split the profits 50-50. I think they would have to have a 50% partner for the manufacturing operation, which they would run on very tight margins, then the cars would be sold to Tesla at close to break even, then they would mark them up and sell them retail in China. I think Tesla would still keep most of the profit. I don't think Apple splits the profits 50%-50% with Foxconn for iPhones made and sold in China. I think the bigger concern with China is having your intellectual property stolen, which may not be much of an issue since they are open sourcing a lot of it anyways. I doubt that they want to open source the machine that builds the machine though, so that might be an issue.

You are referring to the mandatory 50% Chineese ownership.
As I posted here 2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion
This might actually change. Would be great if we hear about that on May 3rd.

Edit: overthere one of the links I posted was China to loosen JV ownership restrictions for foreign automakers
 
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Having a tunnel whose walls are close to the edges of cars will increase drag, because the air obviously needs to be pushed around the vehicle, and nearby walls would resist that movement. However, if the sleds were kept relatively close, this could be mitigated quite a bit.

Vaccuum would not be possible (what with people dying and such), but they could lower the ambient pressure with pumps. For example, just as you are at a certain cabin altitude on an airliner, they could reduce the pressure in the tunnels to the equivalent of 10,000 ft altitude or so. (Been awhile but as I recall passengers in aircraft mist be supplied with oxygen only when above 10,000 ft cabin altitude). With that, everyone would still be safe and able to breathe, but drag would be reduced quite a bit due to the significantly lower air density.

This would mean you'd need to create some kind of semi-sealing elevator, or you at least restrict the leakage and size your pumps to keep up.

Would require a complex energy/cost analysis to see if it would be worth it, so I won't try to speculate as to its feasibility.
 
some of us positioned into TSLA 327.50 calls extremely aggressively on Friday with the intention of creating a free credit spread with further down calls. These are weekly calls so for the strategy to work we need premium to spike early next week before earnings. So this brings me into my thinking into earnings bound the obvious very short term positive.

Multi-day is very positive on TSLA right now before this breakout, and add to that the fact that Thursday was the perfect opportunity to cause some sort of significant shake before earnings. There was a pull back Thursday with no follow trough Friday , instead we saw the pull back stalled. Perhaps its Hedge Funds knowing that the priority might be to relive excessive short positions. We also know that the borrowing rate to short is very low with a higher amount of shorts available on some platforms giving further credence to short covering on TSLA ahead of the Earnings Event. Again unlike some that want to see huge profits I wish to see any money made re invested. I would welcome losses as long as the model 3 release is on track for July area.

And all indications with the release candidate vehicle spotted , everything should be on track . This is no longer a new green behind the ears company as it was when model s and X first went into mass production. Instead those who are working on Teslas model 3 are now veterans of the X and the S, and I say veterans because these engineers would of most likely never gone into the car industry for there the best of the best seeking true challenges . Now these best of the best have the experience, and there task is to create 500k cars next year of a simpler vehicle created with ease of production in mind? I not only expect it to be released in time but the production numbers to stun wall street that keeps speaking of absolute delays as we saw with model S and X. They cant foretell the progressions of the talented in fields inherently foreign to them. Now that they are " VETERANS " after only 2 mass production cars, I am sure that goals meet but the lesser slower peers stuck in the past, can easily be surpassed buy this team shaping our very future.
 
And allow you to travel a long distance without using any of your vehicle's battery capacity.

That Tunnel Elon used as an example (i.e. Westwood flyaway to LAX) would be the perfect first Tunnel

As everyone knows, that 10 mile stretch of "The 5" between Santa Monica and LAX is ALWAYS bummer-to-bummer

I'd pay $10 bucks all the time to use the Tunnel.

Regarding Tunnel permits and right-of-way, I believe of you go deep enough, there's nothing in the way... no sewer lines, gas lines, pipes etc. nada

So, you'd think ultimately, once proven out, there should be little objection from anyone in govt or property owners.

Think about commercial airlines flying overhead. No one cares, right?
It just happens.
 
This is roofing market, residential and commercial, in Western USA States.

My point isn't that Solar Roof will be a tough sell.

My point is that 25% of the market will be an extremely easy sell. That is a whole lot of roofs for one Buffalo GF.

That premium market where people want more than asphalt/fiberglass roofs.

As soon as I can order the Slate Solar Roof, I will push the order button

I've purposely not reroofed my garage. It's old. The ceramic tiles are shot.

I'm waiting for Tesla Solar Roof.
 
I suspect a GigaFactory will be announced for China pretty soon, and it won't just be to build batteries: it will be a full-on factory for manufacturing Tesla cars too.

As for Boring Company, that video on Boring's home page makes zero sense to me. Why would you drive into town, park in one of those "sleds" that goes down into the ground (leaving a hole in the street for some distracted driver or pedestrian to fall into?) and then have the sled travel 120+mph away from that location on an underground "freeway"? Why not just mass transit? The whole notion of cars seems silly in that future vision.

There is effectively NO mass transit in LA. You can't from one part of LA to another via mass transit. It ain't Manhattan or Tokyo
 
That Tunnel Elon used as an example (i.e. Westwood flyaway to LAX) would be the perfect first Tunnel

As everyone knows, that 10 mile stretch of "The 5" between Santa Monica and LAX is ALWAYS bummer-to-bummer

I'd pay $10 bucks all the time to use the Tunnel.

Regarding Tunnel permits and right-of-way, I believe of you go deep enough, there's nothing in the way... no sewer lines, gas lines, pipes etc. nada

So, you'd think ultimately, once proven out, there should be little objection from anyone in govt or property owners.

Think about commercial airlines flying overhead. No one cares, right?
It just happens.

Great points! I read somewhere that cost of actual boring is only about 10% to 15% of the project cost of current tunnels for roadways and subways. Rest of the cost is in mitigating the impact to existing infrastructure above and other compliance measures.

A big difference here is that these new tunnels are unlike anything before in that they can go way deeper! As a consumer, do I care if the tunnel is 50 ft underground or 1000 ft? No, I don't. At that depth, costs related to other compliance measures will likely be vastly lower.
 
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That's an obvious and good one. I am also going to ask about the roadster and "the supercar" that I hope they do and see if he denies it.
I expect Roadster to be supercar. Easiest way to get cost of development of the car back, create hallo product and wall poster for the new generation of buyers :)

Now, is Roadster going to be able to go the the track for a driving events? (i.e. not race, but 20-30 min high speed) I doubt it, but if it is, and they resolve steering to something sensible and feelsome, I'm done with the Porsche. Can't stand going for a service there, not just because it's expensive, but dealers threat it as if it's a win-lose situation, and try to screw you any which way...
 
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I wonder how travelling in a tunnel changes the aerodynamics. Let's suppose that within a tunnel segment all vehicles travel in the same direction and speed. Thus, all the air around the vehicles is flowing with the same average velocity. Thus, aerodynamic drag has more to do with resistance to flow near the walls of the tunnel. So the tunnel itself can be very aerodynamic.

In segments where the speed needs to slow the cross-sectional area of the tunnel can expand. At an extreme, if the tunnel exits into open air. The cross-sectional area becomes infinite, and average wind velocity around vehicles becomes dictated by meteorology.

So I think Musk may be rethinking hyperloop. There the solution to aerodynamic drag was to evacuate the tubes, which itself has an energy cost to maintain. But you can also solve the problem just by fluid flow. There is a certain amount of energy needed to pump air through a tube at a given speed. So how does that compare the energy required to maintain a vacuum in a tube?

Nascar Drafting.
 
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I wonder how travelling in a tunnel changes the aerodynamics. Let's suppose that within a tunnel segment all vehicles travel in the same direction and speed. Thus, all the air around the vehicles is flowing with the same average velocity. Thus, aerodynamic drag has more to do with resistance to flow near the walls of the tunnel. So the tunnel itself can be very aerodynamic.

In segments where the speed needs to slow the cross-sectional area of the tunnel can expand. At an extreme, if the tunnel exits into open air. The cross-sectional area becomes infinite, and average wind velocity around vehicles becomes dictated by meteorology.

So I think Musk may be rethinking hyperloop. There the solution to aerodynamic drag was to evacuate the tubes, which itself has an energy cost to maintain. But you can also solve the problem just by fluid flow. There is a certain amount of energy needed to pump air through a tube at a given speed. So how does that compare the energy required to maintain a vacuum in a tube?

Nah. Hyperloop is separate distinct transport mode from City tunnels

Hyperloop goes 700mph between city pairs
 
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