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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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AustinEV, my old buddy,
You realize that if that reservation is yours you're going to have a mighty easy time making friends on this forum between now and the factory tour.
Your good friend,
Papafox

I don't make friends now? :oops:

Well, as it happens I have 3 plus ones and 2 ppl identified. I have invited a fourth via pm. So at the risk of kicking off a sitcom style kiss-ass party pm me if you want to be considered for backups. I will give priority to excellence in tmc community contributions :)
 
AustinEV, my old buddy,
You realize that if that reservation is yours you're going to have a mighty easy time making friends on this forum between now and the factory tour.
Your good friend,
Papafox
so @Papafox , are you offering a guest a visit of a week or 3 on Kaua'i if somebody snags an invite? Is that your bid?
 
I don't make friends now? :oops:

Well, as it happens I have 3 plus ones and 2 ppl identified. I have invited a fourth via pm. So at the risk of kicking off a sitcom style kiss-ass party pm me if you want to be considered for backups. I will give priority to excellence in tmc community contributions :)
Take papa fox - have a nice meal and send me the bill. You both are great contributors. Papa is a great contributor and deserves to go!!!
 
Multi-day is very positive on TSLA right now before this breakout, and add to that the fact that Thursday was the perfect opportunity to cause some sort of significant shake before earnings. There was a pull back Thursday with no follow trough Friday , instead we saw the pull back stalled. Perhaps its Hedge Funds knowing that the priority might be to relive excessive short positions.

Seems that "the street" has no clue that Tesla is about to blow away earnings. When will they wake up? Thursday!
 
Seems that "the street" has no clue that Tesla is about to blow away earnings. When will they wake up? Thursday!
Or they have poured their profits into tooling the mysterious M3 which the market believes does not exist. Seeing a M3 mule in Cincinnati Instagram post by Jordan Hart • Apr 29, 2017 at 4:13am UTC would be a canary in the coal mine moment for the market... Seeing an M3 so far from silicon valley shows us that it is no longer a bay area toy car.
 
Regarding Tunnel permits and right-of-way, I believe of you go deep enough, there's nothing in the way... no sewer lines, gas lines, pipes etc. nada

So, you'd think ultimately, once proven out, there should be little objection from anyone in govt or property owners..

This is why elevators. A ramp that drops 500ft in a quarter mile (1320ft) would compete for the steepest road in the world, and look like this: Grade (slope) - Wikipedia
That above case would require, for all intents and purposes (need to de-ramp at the bottom), 3 times more tunneling than an elevator, or in other words would be similar muck removal effort as 3 elevator shafts, and wouldn't require dealing with the extra politics, extra engineering, and extra land cost of a "shallow" tunnel for the first few hundred feet.

As I understand, one of the reasons subway stations cost so much more than the tunneling itself is you have to be much, much more careful of supporting/not disturbing what's overhead, since it's <50-100ft above you. Almost none of that applies if it's just a simple shaft straight down. That savings alone would more than cover the cost of the elevators, and probably a considerable (if not all) chunk of the sleds.
 
Some GF thoughts:
1. Coincidence that the number of GF's was increased by one after Elon met with China's Vice Premier?

2. We know that in the future Elon is planning to combine GF's with vehicle manufacturing. I think that huge GF's planned to accommodate TE, solar tiles and panels plus every type of vehicle (M3, MY and Semi's etc.) make more sense than several smaller factories.

3. Depending on financing and timing this might be a huge catalyst (e.g. funded by Norwegian pension fund) or a negative (e.g. funded by selling shares). I expect that this will be the former.

4. More information at the shareholders meeting?
 
This is why elevators. A ramp that drops 500ft in a quarter mile (1320ft) would compete for the steepest road in the world, and look like this: Grade (slope) - Wikipedia
That above case would require, for all intents and purposes (need to de-ramp at the bottom), 3 times more tunneling than an elevator, or in other words would be similar muck removal effort as 3 elevator shafts, and wouldn't require dealing with the extra politics, extra engineering, and extra land cost of a "shallow" tunnel for the first few hundred feet.

As I understand, one of the reasons subway stations cost so much more than the tunneling itself is you have to be much, much more careful of supporting/not disturbing what's overhead, since it's <50-100ft above you. Almost none of that applies if it's just a simple shaft straight down. That savings alone would more than cover the cost of the elevators, and probably a considerable (if not all) chunk of the sleds.

The ramps would be circular. How are you going to build single car elevators for a million commuters at rush hour?

They have a circular parking garage here in Chicago that is likely 6-7 stories. Same thing only instead of going up, you go down. As a matter of fact, my thought is that you enter that garage and go down to enter the tunnels and cars arriving go up from the tunnels to park.

Still not buying a million sleds and tens of thousands of single car elevators that go down hundreds of feet? I'm no elevator scientist, but that sounds expensive and complicated. Ramps are not so complicated or expensive.
 
I will give him full credit for throwing away failed ideas quickly and making very fast U-turns. Usually.

To reply to myself... don't underestimate the value of this. It's a *very rare* attitude/ability which Musk has. It's a talent which could have saved hundreds or thousands of companies which failed. It compensates for innumerable mistakes. It would have saved Kodak, it would save GM right now, etc. etc.
 
Nah. Hyperloop is separate distinct transport mode from City tunnels

Hyperloop goes 700mph between city pairs
I never equated the two. There is a fundamental difference between traveling in a vacuum to reduce drag than floating along in a current. One is about air density and the other is air speed. If you are in a tunnel where the average wind speed is say 120 mph than you encounter no aerodynamic drag travelling 120 mph in the same direction.

In hyperloop, Musk seems to envision near zero wind speed because what low density air the is in front of the pod is sucked through the pod and ejected out the back. So the hyperloop pod is still traveling about 700 mph faster than the air around it. Like an airplane at high altitude it still has a very high wind speed, in spite of low pressure. But a vehicle traveling 120 mph within a stream of air also flowing at 120 mph has a wind speed of zero, regardless of the density of that air.

BTW, does anyone know if the speed of sound is a problem for hyperloop? I suspect that evacuating the tube does something to help the approach to mach 1.
 
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I am floored by the negativity on the Boring Company plans on this board. It sounds exactly like Seeking Alpha with a bunch of armchair experts going on about what an idiot Elon is to try an build an electric car. This venture may not work out, and he may loose money, but I would be willing to bet all my money, that whatever problems any one of us can imagine with the plan, he has at least thought of, and has well reasoned first principle reasons for starting where he is starting. To say he hasn't researched the problem is insane!
In regards to bottle necks at the elevators, and expensive sleds, my guess is that the sleds are mostly about safety and reliability. If a single privately owned car broke down, lit on fire, ran out of charge, collided with another car, etc, in one of these very small tunnels it would be a total cluster F to sort out. Also, if "traffic" is going that fast, there is going to have to be very precise control of high acceleration/ deceleration , and merging control for cars entering and exiting the system with no visibility since it is branches in a tunnel.

The other thing I would guess regarding the capacity concerns would be that at least in the beginning these would follow a model much like Tesla cars. In the beginning they would be very expensive, limited capacity, and mostly for rich people that don't want to wait around in traffic. They don't nessesarily need to replace the freeways and get millions of cars through this system, to make it a successful venture if they can build it cheap enough. It could be $10 a mile and I am sure there are plenty of rich people in LA in a rush to the airport that would be happy to pay it. For the common folk, Tesla network minibuses, could pack lots of density in at a much lower price per person.

On the question of ramps vs. elevators, my guess is that the reasoning is that vertical shafts would be orders of magnitude cheaper to permit and build, once in place they could easily dug deeper and extended as more layers of tunnels are dug in the future. They would not only be used for entry and exit, but for moving between layers of tunnels. It was not shown this way in the video, but the elevator thing seems to me like it would move a lot more cars if they could figure out a way to make it a pair of shafts with the platforms moving up in one shaft, and down in its twin, kind of like a ski chairlift. I'm sure it would be tricky engineering, but probably possible.

If they can figure out how to make all this work profitably, and demonstrate it as such, it seems like the kind of long lived, steady income producing asset that Trillions of dollars of pension fund, sovereign wealth funds, etc, are dying for in this low rate environment. Once built, these tunnels could be a cash cow for a century or more.
 
I am floored by the negativity on the Boring Company plans on this board. It sounds exactly like Seeking Alpha with a bunch of armchair experts going on about what an idiot Elon is to try an build an electric car. This venture may not work out, and he may loose money, but I would be willing to bet all my money, that whatever problems any one of us can imagine with the plan, he has at least thought of, and has well reasoned first principle reasons for starting where he is starting. To say he hasn't researched the problem is insane!
In regards to bottle necks at the elevators, and expensive sleds, my guess is that the sleds are mostly about safety and reliability. If a single privately owned car broke down, lit on fire, ran out of charge, collided with another car, etc, in one of these very small tunnels it would be a total cluster F to sort out. Also, if "traffic" is going that fast, there is going to have to be very precise control of high acceleration/ deceleration , and merging control for cars entering and exiting the system with no visibility since it is branches in a tunnel.

The other thing I would guess regarding the capacity concerns would be that at least in the beginning these would follow a model much like Tesla cars. In the beginning they would be very expensive, limited capacity, and mostly for rich people that don't want to wait around in traffic. They don't nessesarily need to replace the freeways and get millions of cars through this system, to make it a successful venture if they can build it cheap enough. It could be $10 a mile and I am sure there are plenty of rich people in LA in a rush to the airport that would be happy to pay it. For the common folk, Tesla network minibuses, could pack lots of density in at a much lower price per person.

On the question of ramps vs. elevators, my guess is that the reasoning is that vertical shafts would be orders of magnitude cheaper to permit and build, once in place they could easily dug deeper and extended as more layers of tunnels are dug in the future. They would not only be used for entry and exit, but for moving between layers of tunnels. It was not shown this way in the video, but the elevator thing seems to me like it would move a lot more cars if they could figure out a way to make it a pair of shafts with the platforms moving up in one shaft, and down in its twin, kind of like a ski chairlift. I'm sure it would be tricky engineering, but probably possible.

If they can figure out how to make all this work profitably, and demonstrate it as such, it seems like the kind of long lived, steady income producing asset that Trillions of dollars of pension fund, sovereign wealth funds, etc, are dying for in this low rate environment. Once built, these tunnels could be a cash cow for a century or more.

Bears are about to call you out for being an Elon "cheerleader" in 3..2..1..
 
I expect Roadster to be supercar. Easiest way to get cost of development of the car back, create hallo product and wall poster for the new generation of buyers :)

Now, is Roadster going to be able to go the the track for a driving events? (i.e. not race, but 20-30 min high speed) I doubt it, but if it is, and they resolve steering to something sensible and feelsome, I'm done with the Porsche. Can't stand going for a service there, not just because it's expensive, but dealers threat it as if it's a win-lose situation, and try to screw you any which way...

Exactly - Sunset Porsche in Portland wants $250 just to change the oil - a job that takes me only 20 minutes and provides me with most of the used oil I need for the entire year for my chainsaw bar oil. Porsche service shop pricing isn't just unnecessarily expensive, it is insulting. We have said many times that we would trade ours in for a Tesla if there was more than just a couple charging stations in our entire state
 
We have said many times that we would trade ours in for a Tesla if there was more than just a couple charging stations in our entire state

But you already have more than a couple. There are already 5 open sites. And there are another 5 just outside the Idaho border. It does seem like a couple, or maybe 3, more would cover the state much better. (especially the central part.)

And while they show plans to add 3 more this year it doesn't look like any of them will be in the central part. (It seems like Lewiston and McCall would make great additions.)
 
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the premium are just not that juicy for writing puts. the at the money 310-315 doesn't even protect you beyond a 2%-3% move lower. and i'm already long a lot delta from in the money calls, so if the report goes poorly i will be taking a lot of heat. would rather not add more heat with puts which offer little upside.

i think if i wasn't so long delta the puts would make sense as they would automatically have me add exposure on the way down. in my situation i'll be better off to reduce exposure on the way down.

Admittedly my May 12 340 puts have only about $3 worth of premium, but they provide lots of leverage. I wrote them a couple of weeks ago when TSLA was at 302. So I'm covered for only 1% down, but with almost 13% of upside. How much upside do you need? I've also written some Jan '19 450 puts, which leaves lots of upside room.
 
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Wow.. No math about the Boring company! I am disappointed in all of you in an investor thread.

$5 a trip in the tunnel on a sled.
Operates year 'round so that's $1825 for one sled one car a day for a year.
Someone mentioned 100,000 sleds that's $182Million at one trip a day per sled.
Everyone that goes to work has to go home so double that. $365 Million a year.

That's just one trip in and one trip out for each sled. I would guess the sleds are going to make a lot more trips per day than just one in and one out during the work week. IF a sled can make the trip in and out in an incredibly long time of an hour that is actually 24 round trips a day. Cutting that in half since demand will be low at night. That now brings our yearly money coming in to $4.3 Billion.

No one bases a company to only deliver a product for a year so now lets just say the system lasts for only 10 years.
$43B...... Someone else want to back out the costs involved?

This may only pay off in the USA. Most people outside the US don't seem to understand Americans love for their cars which I never understood because people in other countries love their cars too. I have always thought the way to get mass transit to pay for itself in the US is to somehow mass transit the entire car but I never could figure out how. My thought was similar to Elon's idea but to take the car to the parking garage not pick up on the street. Ques would be too long in the street. It already cost to park in a garage so the garage fee would only go up from the $10-$20 to $20-$35 (example). Some parking structures are already underground so all that in needed is merging.

As far as the elevator... That's just lack of detail in the animation. I always thought of it more like a vertical corkscrew lift. One motor turning a giant corkscrew. Sleds on all levels of the corkscrew. Sleds are held stationary so room for four sleds per corkscrew level. With this method you never have an "opening" for people or cars to fall down. Kind of like the circular ramp in parking garages today but since it is automated you turn the circular ramp and not the car timing the entry so movement can be much faster and more fluid. Hard to describe I guess.
 
I never equated the two. There is a fundamental difference between traveling in a vacuum to reduce drag than floating along in a current. One is about air density and the other is air speed. If you are in a tunnel where the average wind speed is say 120 mph than you encounter no aerodynamic drag travelling 120 mph in the same direction.

In hyperloop, Musk seems to envision near zero wind speed because what low density air the is in front of the pod is sucked through the pod and ejected out the back. So the hyperloop pod is still traveling about 700 mph faster than the air around it. Like an airplane at high altitude it still has a very high wind speed, in spite of low pressure. But a vehicle traveling 120 mph within a stream of air also flowing at 120 mph has a wind speed of zero, regardless of the density of that air.

BTW, does anyone know if the speed of sound is a problem for hyperloop? I suspect that evacuating the tube does something to help the approach to mach 1.

In 2015 I did a 50 state tour in my Model S 70, with much emphasis on extending the range (superchargers were not as plentiful as they are this year). My discovery was that substantial improvements in mileage could be achieved by drafting behind a semi-truck, but most of us already know that. The interesting discoveries were that you could get a nice improvement in mileage by simply following another vehicle such as a pickup truck. Additionally, I discovered something I called "whole traffic drafting" in which a fast moving flow of traffic that wasn't varying its speed much allowed for many of the mileage improvements you'd achieve drafting behind a big truck. If Elon could set four or five of the vehicles in motion with little or no space between the propulsion devices, large savings in energy would result in much the same way that a train is very efficient aerodynamically.

I discovered that falling in behind a semi-truck at 65 mph was just as efficient as slowing to 50 mph (and a whole less scary in heavy traffic). During the trip my energy-stretching techniques changed from slowing down (when in moderate to heavy traffic) to finding a rather large vehicle and following it. I didn't even have to follow it particularly closely. The biggest negative of following a big truck was breathing diesel fumes. I only did this when I needed to stretch my range to reach my destination.
 
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