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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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I'm having a bit trouble to wrap my head around that 95% opex not associated with S/X. Of course there's ton of opex due to D&A of asset not used for S/X (GF most obviously). But 95%? That's like saying almost all those Tesla stores and employee are basically a waste if they are not going for 3 and other products.

A breakdown on their opex:
Before SCTY integration in 2016: $500-500M per Q, about 38% of which is RND (~$200M) and the rest SG&A
After SCTY fully integrated (Q1 2017): $925M, $322M RND and $600 SG&A.

Even if $0 was spent on S/X RND, and we assume SCTY is adding $300M of SG&A that has nothing to do with S/X, that leaves $300M in SG&A. If only 5% of the $925M is related to S/X, that's only $46M. There's a huge gap between $46M and $300M. How can this be?

I think one major thing you're leaving out is the massive investment that's going on in Superchargers and sales/service centers, which will be leveraged for Model 3, but I generally agree with you. The calculation must be leaving out all depreciation and all employee-related costs in SG&A, which is not reasonable.

The "RBC report" article just doesn't add up.
 
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I think one major thing you're leaving out is the massive investment that's going on in Superchargers and sales/service centers, which will be leveraged for Model 3, but I generally agree with you. The calculation must be leaving out all depreciation and all employee-related costs in SG&A, which is not reasonable.

The "RBC report" article just doesn't add up.
Would reduction in force severance packages from Solar City be included?
 
If you think your X is too flashy and you want your $100k car to look like a $25k Prius FAB Design has got you covered.

fab-tesla-x-001-e1495733506355.jpg


A new Tesla Model X aftermarket body kit unveiled by FAB Design
 
I think one major thing you're leaving out is the massive investment that's going on in Superchargers and sales/service centers,
This is where the 95% number not making sense here. I agree there are more superchargers and stores built than needed to support current S/X. But no way it's that much more. Otherwise they should be totally overstaffed now. But the service they are delivering to S/X, albeit decent, is no where near that level. Also Tesla wouldn't bother to double these within this year.

If 95% not associated with S/X is referring to CapEx, then that's entirely normal. But it was referring to OpEx, especially a ~20% EBIT margin was talked about immediately.
 
This is where the 95% number not making sense here. I agree there are more superchargers and stores built than needed to support current S/X. But no way it's that much more. Otherwise they should be totally overstaffed now. But the service they are delivering to S/X, albeit decent, is no where near that level. Also Tesla wouldn't bother to double these within this year.

If 95% not associated with S/X is referring to CapEx, then that's entirely normal. But it was referring to OpEx, especially a ~20% EBIT margin was talked about immediately.

I definitely see where you're coming from. Even though I generally agree with you that the "95%" calculation is probably not allocating expenses appropriately, I guess I'm looking at it slightly differently:

Say a sales location costs Tesla ~$300k per year to operate and it has so far sold 500 Model S/X cars per year.... Tesla still has to expense that full amount, essentially at a $600 per car rate.

When the Model 3 comes out and that sales location is now selling 5,000 cars per year with 5x the staff (so say ~500k per year to operate since some is fixed lease costs), then the rate drops to $100 per car.

GAAP does not capture this leverage benefit. It also doesn't capture the benefit of having that sales location there for two years before the Model 3 comes out, expanding the brand value for Tesla. And imagine that Tesla has already hired the 2-3x the people for training purposes six months before the Model 3 ramps up. GAAP doesn't adjust for that either; there's no capitalizing of salespeople salaries. :D

GAAP generally can be conservative for high-growth companies, and Tesla is a super-high-growth company....

This explanation cannot be applied to all high-growth companies, but in Tesla's case, I believe this is how the GAAP vs. non-GAAP divergence is playing out (among other things). It's all situation/company based.

To reiterate though: I generally agree with you that the "95% not applicable to S/X" comment doesn't make much sense and shouldn't be taken at face value, but I also think Tesla will see much higher SG&A leverage than most expect.
 
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This is where the 95% number not making sense here. I agree there are more superchargers and stores built than needed to support current S/X. But no way it's that much more. Otherwise they should be totally overstaffed now. But the service they are delivering to S/X, albeit decent, is no where near that level. Also Tesla wouldn't bother to double these within this year.

If 95% not associated with S/X is referring to CapEx, then that's entirely normal. But it was referring to OpEx, especially a ~20% EBIT margin was talked about immediately.
My guess is that the 95% number is in reference to the increases in expenses for this year, not the total expenses, and they just made an error in writing it up.
 
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Correct me if I'm wrong...The Chinese are struggling to bring funds over to America. Thus issues with all these Chinese startups and the housing market in CA isn't as hot. I hear the Chinese government is cracking down on foreign investment.
The restriction on outflow of money is mostly on individual level (partially contributing to the run-up of bitcoin - buy in CNY then sell for USD, bypassing regulations). LeEco's cash crunch is more of their own problem. Their business in China is also facing problems because of lack of cash.
 
I definitely see where you're coming from. Even though I generally agree with you that the "95%" calculation is probably not allocating expenses appropriately, I guess I'm looking at it slightly differently:

Say a sales location costs Tesla ~$300k per year to operate and it has so far sold 500 Model S/X cars per year.... Tesla still has to expense that full amount, essentially at a $600 per car rate.

When the Model 3 comes out and that sales location is now selling 5,000 cars per year with 5x the staff (so say ~500k per year to operate since some is fixed lease costs), then the rate drops to $100 per car.

GAAP does not capture this leverage benefit. It also doesn't capture the benefit of having that sales location there for two years before the Model 3 comes out, expanding the brand value for Tesla. And imagine that Tesla has already hired the 2-3x the people for training purposes six months before the Model 3 ramps up. GAAP doesn't adjust for that either; there's no capitalizing of salespeople salaries. :D

GAAP generally can be conservative for high-growth companies, and Tesla is a super-high-growth company....

This explanation cannot be applied to all high-growth companies, but in Tesla's case, I believe this is how the GAAP vs. non-GAAP divergence is playing out (among other things). It's all situation/company based.

To reiterate though: I generally agree with you that the "95% not applicable to S/X" comment doesn't make much sense and shouldn't be taken at face value, but I also think Tesla will see much higher SG&A leverage than most expect.

Think about the leverage on the Fremont facility going from 100k/ year to 250k to 500k
 
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Teslanomics YouTube channel has some data points on GF model 3 battery module investment. A bit late to make that decision now? Maybe this is for another line?


Well, it is clear that they want to have the capex expenditure as late as possible so that there isn't a lot of investment sitting around doing nothing. It is hard to sort out the numbers. 20 what a day per what per how many employees? There are bits of data, but not enough. Looking at 10 minutes to 10 seconds to support 5000/week. So right now, 5000/60=~80/week for the manual process. That's probably fast enough for July's production. If they have been doing this for a month already, that's enough for ~1000 cars in July and August, which is about right to start up production. 3 months to get at least one line of robots in place for bigger volumes in September. They can also add employees temporarily to increase the production speed.

If some of the analysts have gotten some of the inside info like this, but wrongly assume how long that bottleneck would be in place, then I could see how they would have the wrong conclusion on annual production volumes. Management's guidance obviously is informed by the overall set of plans.
 
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Sometimes I take the shuttle to work. I really enjoy talking to people. I like hearing about what's going on in their lives, because mine consists of reading 16 hours a day, seven days a week, and occasional hip hop lessons. Boring.

I've noted this before, but I'm noticing a surge in Elon Musk/Tesla/Model 3 related chatter. At least five people were chatting among themselves about Model 3. They still think it's a $50,000 rich-person car, but at least now they know what it is. "What's the high-end version one?" they asked me. One step at a time.

Then I come to my office and I log in to TMC, where we talk about battery chemistries and how much a roofer gets paid.

I really love this forum.
 
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A bit more detail in this article:

EXCLUSIVE: Tesla Model 3 battery pack details, Musk approves $216M budget for production line at Gigafactory 1

Also:

According to our source, the base Model 3, as of now, will start at 60kWh. This capacity comes in higher than what we originally expected and will meet the “at least 215 miles” of range that Tesla had first announced for the vehicle. Tesla is reportedly concentrating on the production of the premium battery at first, which is slated to be 74kWh, and likely badged as a Tesla Model 3 75.

As far as the battery modules:

Model 3 Battery Module Lines 1, 2 and 3 are capacitized to produce 5,000 cars/week by running parallel at 61 second ideal cycle time (TAKT) time operated at 75% overall equipment efficiency (OEE).

and
the Model 3 will utilize only 4 modules containing the larger and higher energy density 2170 lithium ion cell.

But all of this is to delay the capex... basically, they can have one of the 3 lines up and running for over 1,600 a week up and running in Q3. That capex won't hit until Q4. It is possible some of the rest won't hit until Q1.

Edit: downgraded to 1,600 a week instead of 2,000 a week to accommodate bigger battery sizes and the overall rate of 5,000.
 
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Possible tariffs to German autos coming to US
Trump reportedly slammed German carmakers and threatened to stop their sales in the US
How does market treat this-- old story and not going to happen, tsla trends with all autos, tsla benefits as gets a pseudo competitive edge in us luxury market...

Most of these cars are US manufactured. I don't think Trump really understands that. I even read that BMW (who are producing most of their SUVs in US factories) are the biggest exporter of cars from the US.
 
Most of these cars are US manufactured. I don't think Trump really understands that. I even read that BMW (who are producing most of their SUVs in US factories) are the biggest exporter of cars from the US.

In 2014

BMW Group sold 396k cars in the US.

It manufactured 364k cars in the US (capacity is 450k) and exported roughly 70% of those.

BMW currently produces X3,X4,X5,X6 and will produce X7 in S Carolina.

BMW US Manufacturing Company - Wikipedia
BMW Group Sales Figures - GOOD CAR BAD CAR
 
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