Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Status
Not open for further replies.
Except, Musk did not go on and on that the doors should be RE-designed to what everyone else had -- he just acknowledged the mistake and the hubris behind it. And in my logical reality, that's a whole different kettle of fish than what you were saying. I didn't have a problem with you stating that once, although I disagreed. But I was getting really tired of it by the 100th time.

Moderator-edited with an in-situ eraser.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
For those who aren't checking the Model 3 forums, there are numerous photos of release candidates and a couple photos of the front interior.

There is mass anxiety and handwringing over features, configurations, and pricing. Feels like Macrumors forum in 2010 right after Gizmodo obtained a stolen iPhone 4 prototype and posted pictures for the lulz.
 
For those who aren't checking the Model 3 forums, there are numerous photos of release candidates and a couple photos of the front interior.

There is mass anxiety and handwringing over features, configurations, and pricing. Feels like Macrumors forum in 2010 right after Gizmodo obtained a stolen iPhone 4 prototype and posted pictures for the lulz.

How many have actually canceled their reservations?
 
How many have actually canceled their reservations?

My general sense is not many, but only Tesla would have the real numbers.

This late in the game (between 30-60 days from full reveal), there is really no benefit to canceling a reservation and losing one's place in line. There are fence sitters who are waiting to see what happens with options and pricing.

Both iPhone 4 and iPhone 5 prototypes elicited mass freakout/panic on Macrumors, with various people saying the prototypes must be fake.., terrible design blah blah. And then the 4 and 4s went on to propel iPhone to dominance. The 2012 iPhone 5 design proved so popular that it forms the basis of the 2016 iPhone SE (still sold today).

The Model 3 has the right exterior looks. The reaction to the sheet metal and proportions is nearly universally positive. It's the interior and single 15" display that is freaking some people out.

If Tesla's interior design turns out to be functional and charming despite the unconventional instrumentation, this will be their iPhone 4 moment. That's my intuition.
 
My general sense is not many, but only Tesla would have the real numbers.

This late in the game (between 30-60 days from full reveal), there is really no benefit to canceling a reservation and losing one's place in line. There are fence sitters who are waiting to see what happens with options and pricing.

Both iPhone 4 and iPhone 5 prototypes elicited mass freakout/panic on Macrumors, with various people saying the prototypes must be fake.., terrible design blah blah. And then the 4 and 4s went on to propel iPhone to dominance. The 2012 iPhone 5 design proved so popular that it forms the basis of the 2016 iPhone SE (still sold today).

The Model 3 has the right exterior looks. The reaction to the sheet metal and proportions is nearly universally positive. It's the interior and single 15" display that is freaking some people out.

If Tesla's interior design turns out to be functional and charming despite the unconventional instrumentation, this will be their iPhone 4 moment. That's my intuition.

Totally agree. You will get some cancellations but others will step in to take their place. In my 'neck of the woods', their will be a delay in purchase but not a cancellation. The delay for many in less temperate climates will be for AWD. IMO, it will have a much bigger influence on early uptake of reservations than the changes in the interior. My first model S was good in the snow but I did end up with a 'D' just to 'make sure' I was protecting my family as in the last 10-15 years we have only purchased AWD for daily drivers.

Of the reservations I placed for my immediate family, extended family and friends (9), my small data base indicated that only two will take RWD model 3s. The rest will wait for AWD.
 
My general sense is not many, but only Tesla would have the real numbers.

This late in the game (between 30-60 days from full reveal), there is really no benefit to canceling a reservation and losing one's place in line. There are fence sitters who are waiting to see what happens with options and pricing.

Both iPhone 4 and iPhone 5 prototypes elicited mass freakout/panic on Macrumors, with various people saying the prototypes must be fake.., terrible design blah blah. And then the 4 and 4s went on to propel iPhone to dominance. The 2012 iPhone 5 design proved so popular that it forms the basis of the 2016 iPhone SE (still sold today).

The Model 3 has the right exterior looks. The reaction to the sheet metal and proportions is nearly universally positive. It's the interior and single 15" display that is freaking some people out.

If Tesla's interior design turns out to be functional and charming despite the unconventional instrumentation, this will be their iPhone 4 moment. That's my intuition.

People are complaining about if the wheel is simple or Mercedes level when millions have rockets flying over their heads.
 
best look so far at M3 interior dash
Tesla Model 3: best look at the interior and Model 3’s unique dashboard to date

18766771_10213290431843155_1269389426786253013_o1-e1496015275482.jpg
 
The delay for many in less temperate climates will be for AWD. IMO, it will have a much bigger influence on early uptake of reservations than the changes in the interior.
Of the reservations I placed for my immediate family, extended family and friends (9), my small data base indicated that only two will take RWD model 3s. The rest will wait for AWD.

Great observation @AlMc. My reservation and that of a friend living in Vermont, won't be exercised until AWD is available.
That Tesla has deferred M3 AWD is another proof they are dead serious about meeting targets for production, deliveries and ramping this year. I.e. even an option/feature of great importance and involving no unproven technology is being deferred to further reduce the chance of anything going amiss and delaying stated target dates.

So when will AWD be added? I don't recall when Tesla has said it will become available.
My guess is they will 'surprise' everyone and beat what they've suggested by a good margin. As soon as a second M3 assembly line goes into operation, they could use that to build just AWDs and reduce any risks from a line set up to do both RWD and AWD. My guess is that reaching 5K per week by end of the year is considered important enough, they will wait until Q1 2018. However if the resources available after the ramp is considered well in hand are free to get an AWD only line built, I could see AWD happening as early as Q4. That is a stretch, but I believe Q1 is very likely.
 
Tesla is to automakers what Apple was to Nokia circa 2007, says Marc Andreessen

The contrast between 1992 vs. 2007 is interesting, but completely ignores the lead Tesla has with its Gigafactories.

Isn't there a clear difference between between AAPL and TSLA that never gets mentioned though? AAPL outsourced all of its manufacturing...making it a far less capital intensive business than TSLA. AAPL de-risked a lot by doing that...

Fyi, I'm new here. In the market for a new 75D but need to find one of the few with a solid roof.
 
  • Like
Reactions: neroden and Lessmog
Of the reservations I placed for my immediate family, extended family and friends (9), my small data base indicated that only two will take RWD model 3s. The rest will wait for AWD.
Opposite here in southern California. Of the dozen or so family and friends who have Model 3 reservations, all but one are pleased that the 2WD will be the first of the available versions.
 
  • Like
Reactions: SunCatcher
Opposite here in southern California. Of the dozen or so family and friends who have Model 3 reservations, all but one are pleased that the 2WD will be the first of the available versions.

Model3Tracker.info is currently showing 32% of registered users plan to order RWD.

That number has increased a bit (2%) since the AWD/RWD timing announcement and since many people won't bother to update the tracker it could easily underestimate the number that are planning to order RWD if they can get it sooner than AWD. Model3Tracker.info
 
  • Informative
Reactions: erthquake and gene
Opposite here in southern California. Of the dozen or so family and friends who have Model 3 reservations, all but one are pleased that the 2WD will be the first of the available versions.
I've reserved the Model 3 for my older daughter in MO. She doesn't know that yet, but have asked her about her electrical outlets an whether any of their cars have AWD. She told me none do and their winters haven'i been bad lately. OTOH I may still want to get her the AWD version for better range and performance, depending on cost.
 
Isn't there a clear difference between between AAPL and TSLA that never gets mentioned though? AAPL outsourced all of its manufacturing...making it a far less capital intensive business than TSLA. AAPL de-risked a lot by doing that...

Fyi, I'm new here. In the market for a new 75D but need to find one of the few with a solid roof.

Insourcing and outsourcing both have positives and negatives. Both Apple's and Tesla's business models, on the hardware front, are similarly capital intensive when one considers the full supply chain.

Also, I don't subscribe to the Private Equity thinking that less capital intensity is necessarily better.
 
Insourcing and outsourcing both have positives and negatives. Both Apple's and Tesla's business models, on the hardware front, are similarly capital intensive when one considers the full supply chain.

Also, I don't subscribe to the Private Equity thinking that less capital intensity is necessarily better.
Automotive News publishes regular articles about the automotive construction process including almost every element of the supply chain. A common almost daily commentary is related to repatriation of the supply chain be builders of vehicles in the US. It typically goes about like this:
Gentex hires robots as production moves stateside
or this:
http://www.autonews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20170529/OEM10/170529799/1221
They always end out showing that increased automation is crucial for quality control and efficiency, and is very capital intensive.
If there is a "Private Equity thinking that less capital intensity is necessarily better" it is most certainly quite wrong-headed. I'm fairly certain that the only common failing of private equity is a general habit of wanting a quick high payoff, thus hampering technological innovation. Even that is a far from universal failure, IMHO.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
I don't think this will be the final interior of Model 3, but I'm curious about others' thinking around this.

I don't see why Tesla would need to equip these cars with final interior yet.
bad dumb question. do the back seats fold down flat? that is a deal killer for the wife, wom compares everything to the Prius interior. we have lots of "stuff" (finally got rid of piano!!)
 
bad dumb question. do the back seats fold down flat? that is a deal killer for the wife, wom compares everything to the Prius interior. we have lots of "stuff" (finally got rid of piano!!)
Not folding flat is a shirker design move that hurts market share, utility and everyone else who works for the company. I don't see Elon letting that get by.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.