2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[AudubonB]

. .. People buy Audie's, BMWs and MB with ...

Careful there, Buster. Really, really, CAREFUL. Moderators are standing by.

Audie

 

[22522]

Ok, so if your are saying Apple was running a similarly capital intensive business to Tesla, even though they outsourced actual production, that's a significant point. Would need to understand how because on the surface it doesn't make sense.

I do not have considerable supply chain experience so you might have point there if you do.

It kind of matters how you measure it.
I would guess that they are equally capital intensive within two orders of magnitude, if the basis is capital investment related to profit.
I would guess they are within one order of magnitude, if the basis is capital investment as a multiple of retail price of one unit.

 

[ggr]

I don't think this will be the final interior of Model 3, but I'm curious about others' thinking around this.

I don't see why Tesla would need to equip these cars with final interior yet.

I'm pretty sure that the interior would need to be final for crash testing.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I'm pretty sure that the interior would need to be final for crash testing.

I was referring to the interior of the cars that they are driving around.

 

[Bet TSLA]

The following is my (publicly available) article from August 2016 where I laid out how Bolt vs. Model 3 would play out, and that's exactly what has transpired.

Okay, I read it (but not the comments). What I see is a comparison of specs, mostly guessed at, and a conclusion that the Model 3 will be much better. What I don't see is anything about how things would "play out". For example, you say nothing about sales of Bolts over the first year.

 

[Snerruc]

Careful there, Buster. Really, really, CAREFUL. Moderators are standing by.

Audie

Sorry, I blame it on my damn iPad and. watching too many Audie Murphy movies this weekend. Also I was NOT disparaging German cars only giving examples.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

It's way too late in the game for release candidates to be undergoing final validation without the final interior.

I've watched Tesla for years and the automotive industry for decades. The chances of this not being final are close to zero.

Just because something has been done for decades doesn't mean it will always be so. Remember that Tesla went straight from Alphas to RCs without the typical Beta testing. Not sure this has been done before. I'm not saying it will happen, but I wouldn't put it past Tesla to surprise us at the July reveal with respect to the interior. I'll be buying the car no matter what so I don't mind either way

 

[dmckinstry]

Careful there, Buster. Really, really, CAREFUL. Moderators are standing by.

Audie

Don't be so sensitive. We know you can't be bought.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Is there an in-depth post/thread about potential for Tesla Logistics or Tesla Semi?

 

[Starno]

2018, Alexa Voice is going to be in Tesla cars.

0:46

 

[GoTslaGo]

Is there an in-depth post/thread about potential for Tesla Logistics or Tesla Semi?

There is a Tesla Semi thread:

Tesla Semi

 

[Mkorpal]

Just because something has been done for decades doesn't mean it will always be so. Remember that Tesla went straight from Alphas to RCs without the typical Beta testing. Not sure this has been done before. I'm not saying it will happen, but I wouldn't put it past Tesla to surprise us at the July reveal with respect to the interior. I'll be buying the car no matter what so I don't mind either way

But what else is there to surprise with? Elon has been pretty forward about no 2nd screen, no HUD, that sort of thing. They aren't going to go back on that.

It is what it is. It's sparse, efficient, and simplistic. Some people are going to love it, some will hate it. I don't remember, but I'm sure when the 1st Iphone came out people had the same reactions. And we know how that turned out.

 

[sub]

Don't know, but as the M3 isn't a hatchback, I highly doubt it.

Every sedan I can remember owning had fold down seats, including our current 335d BMW that also happens to have red rear turn signals (gasp!).

 

[dmckinstry]

Every sedan I can remember owning had fold down seats, including our current 335d BMW that also happens to have red rear turn signals (gasp!).

You've obviously owned higher end sedans than I.

 

[brian45011]

TE related news from the "crowded field with a lot of competitors and solutions": Redflow can't compete with lithium batteries on price in home market

Vattenfall partners BMW for battery storage at its largest UK onshore wind farm
San Diego Gas & Electric picks Powin for 26MWh California battery project

 

[22522]

2018, Alexa Voice is going to be in Tesla cars.

0:46

Is this source always correct?

I can see WEB app capability with windows of application, but the marriage seems odd from a host presence perspective.

"Hey, Alexa, tell me a joke."

I don't know how this sorts out. ( Yeah, I know office runs on Macs. )

 

[LargeHamCollider]

Vattenfall partners BMW for battery storage at its largest UK onshore wind farm
San Diego Gas & Electric picks Powin for 26MWh California battery project

Powin is using LiFePO4 batteries, probably from a Chinese OEM, I seriously doubt LFP will be able to compete with NCA on $/kWh delivered.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Powin is using LiFePO4 batteries, probably from a Chinese OEM, I seriously doubt LFP will be able to compete with NCA on $/kWh delivered.

Be careful with that line of thinking. Not sure if LFP can compete on $/kWh of battery capacity either, but I do know it's a more stable chemistry that can get more charge cycles, and that can tip the $/MWh delivered energy to a lower price than NCA.

Edit: rescinded. Brian's reply is more fact driven.

 

[brian45011]

Powin is using LiFePO4 batteries, probably from a Chinese OEM, I seriously doubt LFP will be able to compete with NCA on $/kWh delivered.

Powin is partly owned by a Chinese conglomerate : Asia Pacific Resources Development Investment Co., Ltd which also holds an interest in Boston Power.

About APRD

" Boston-Power has begun planned capacity expansions to reach 3 GWh at its Liyang factory and will be breaking ground on its new Tianjin factory which will reach 4 GWh and then 8 GWh in phases 1 and 2 respectively. Current investment for this expansion is estimated at $500 million. In addition to lithium-ion cell production expansion, Boston-Power will build an electric vehicle battery pack assembly plant in northwest China in Lanzhou which will be able to supply 40,000 packs per year for Xindayang’s Eco-EV business."

Eco-EV Manufacturer Xindayang Selects Boston-Power to Supply Lithium-Ion Batteries Packs for High-Volume Production Vehicle | Boston-Power

Here's the MSDS on Boston Power's trademarked cells. The cathode seems to be similar to Lithium Nickel Cobalt Oxide and the electrolyte is lithium hexafluorophosphate. No mention of iron phosphate.
http://www.bto.pl/pdf/07166/MSDS-swing-5300.pdf

Here's an MSDS for another manufacturer's LiFePO4 cells. Cathode is CAS 15365-14-7 vs BP's similar to CAS 113066-89-0.
http://www.power-sonic.com/images/p...fetyDataSheets/SDSForLithiumIronPhosphate.pdf

Regardless of the cell chemistry, $/kWh does not appear to be the sole determinant of how these projects are awarded. System integration, warranties, product service history, and technical support are also likely part of the evaluations.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Powin was also one of the companies participating in the BES deployments for Aliso Canyon Leak mitigation. They provided one of the smaller installations, 2MW, 8MWh, which used lithium iron phosphate prismatic modules.