2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[LargeHamCollider]

LFP gets you more cycles but, at least in the incarnations I've dealt with, has relatively poor calendar life and half the gravimetric energy density.

Also the points mentioned by Brian re selection criteria are true; I'm not saying LFP can't compete full stop, just saying I don't think it can compete in one specific (but important) metric which, imo, is a significant liability in the long term.

 

[schonelucht]

Vattenfall partners BMW for battery storage at its largest UK onshore wind farm
San Diego Gas & Electric picks Powin for 26MWh California battery project

Leclanché storage pipeline grows to 450 MWh as 2016 revenue rises 56%

 

[JBRR]

Colin Mckerracher on Twitter

"My team tracks all commissioned and announced EV lithium-ion battery manufacturing globally. Serious ramp-up coming over the next 4 years."

Author believes this ramp will result in oversupply. Thoughts?

 

[mrdoubleb]

Colin Mckerracher on Twitter

"My team tracks all commissioned and announced EV lithium-ion battery manufacturing globally. Serious ramp-up coming over the next 4 years."

Author believes this ramp will result in oversupply. Thoughts?

At this poi t in EV adoption there still is a price barrier for many, so oversupply would mean lower prices which would tap into that unsatisfied demand.

However if the Germans and China are really as serious about this as they appear to be, I don't see how that supply of cells is not already sold.

 

[Starno]

Is this source always correct?

I can see WEB app capability with windows of application, but the marriage seems odd from a host presence perspective.

"Hey, Alexa, tell me a joke."

I don't know how this sorts out. ( Yeah, I know office runs on Macs. )

No he's far from being always correct. But he's really good at seeing trend and patterns.

I think the marriage is actually good.
Imagine :
" Hey, Alexa, command 2 packs of milk, rice, ... " (amazon fresh foods)
" Hey Alexa, at what time is .... "
" Hey Alexa, how far I am from ... "
" Hey Alexa, what is the weather going to be this afternoon "
" Hey Alexa, what is Tesla stock price right now "
...
--------

Basically everything you want to do with your smartphone but you can't because you're driving.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Colin Mckerracher on Twitter

"My team tracks all commissioned and announced EV lithium-ion battery manufacturing globally. Serious ramp-up coming over the next 4 years."

Author believes this ramp will result in oversupply. Thoughts?

Hold on. I'm still laughing.

 

[Willuknight]

No he's far from being always correct. But he's really good at seeing trend and patterns.

I think the marriage is actually good.
Imagine :
" Hey, Alexa, command 2 packs of milk, rice, ... " (amazon fresh foods)
" Hey Alexa, at what time is .... "
" Hey Alexa, how far I am from ... "
" Hey Alexa, what is the weather going to be this afternoon "
" Hey Alexa, what is Tesla stock price right now "
...
--------

Basically everything you want to do with your smartphone but you can't because you're driving.

I think the biggest advantage will be media control. Google Voice is pretty good, but I hear Alexa is better at more complicated situations.

 

[22522]

No he's far from being always correct. But he's really good at seeing trend and patterns.

I think the marriage is actually good.
Imagine :
" Hey, Alexa, command 2 packs of milk, rice, ... " (amazon fresh foods)
" Hey Alexa, at what time is .... "
" Hey Alexa, how far I am from ... "
" Hey Alexa, what is the weather going to be this afternoon "
" Hey Alexa, what is Tesla stock price right now "
...
--------

Basically everything you want to do with your smartphone but you can't because you're driving.

I don't think Elon wants Tesla to be a sub brand of Amazon, unless that is his exit strategy.

 

[Reciprocity]

Colin Mckerracher on Twitter

"My team tracks all commissioned and announced EV lithium-ion battery manufacturing globally. Serious ramp-up coming over the next 4 years."

Author believes this ramp will result in oversupply. Thoughts?

His projections only equate to less than 2 million EVs total produced between 2017 and 2021 (960MWh at average 50KWh pack size), so no. Still very much supply constrained. Though I do agree completion is coming and we would all be silly to discount it. Texas instruments made the first CPUs and where are they today? A hundred chip companies have come and gone. I'm not saying Tesla will be Texas instruments, but no matter how hard you think it is, if there is demand, it is human nature to aggressively fill it. Now everyone might be blind to fact that there is demand, but I'll don't that.

Edit.. hah wrong decimal place. Almost a terawatt hour in 4 years from 100GWh. I think his projections seems reasonable. I still think if companies are going to build that many batteries, they are going to be soaked up by cars and storage and there will not be an over supply. I think we are decades away from that time. It will become as commodity as micro chips but you wont need to replace the batteries every 2 years.

 

[22522]

Colin Mckerracher on Twitter

"My team tracks all commissioned and announced EV lithium-ion battery manufacturing globally. Serious ramp-up coming over the next 4 years."

Author believes this ramp will result in oversupply. Thoughts?

Good thing you are not asking for facts, from me at least!

I think:

China is going to make sure Chinese manufacturers do well.
Germany will not let BMW or Mercedes fail. They would rather be invaded by Russia. (At least that is what the headlines say).

So the oversupply will be of vehicles that are not particularly self consistent. Driver's cars with numb steering. And luxury cars that create a sticky relationship at the dealer service department with a profit center motivation.

It seems like these companies design for the empty set, and people living on brand memories.

In the limit, you get Tesla competing with inferior products from command economies (actually, as you have today with Tesla competing with companies that take customers for granted. The product definition behaviors are kind of the same - Body by Fisher...)

Good thing you were not asking for facts!

 

[vgrinshpun]

The key in the difference

Colin Mckerracher on Twitter

"My team tracks all commissioned and announced EV lithium-ion battery manufacturing globally. Serious ramp-up coming over the next 4 years."

Author believes this ramp will result in oversupply. Thoughts?

I don't see it happening.

He predicts 280GWh of annual production capacity in 2021. Assuming 60kWh pack this is enough for a global annual production of 4.7M cars - in 2021. Given that current global automobile (light duty) production is close to 90M cars/year, and taking into account that by 2021 EV will most likely achieve cost parity with ICE, I just do not see how annual global production of 4.7M EV will even come close to meeting demand for EVs. Him talking about oversupply is obviously based on assumption that EVs will not reach cost parity with ICEs, which is a screaming contradiction with his prediction of 280GWh battery production capacity.

 

[brian45011]

Leclanché storage pipeline grows to 450 MWh as 2016 revenue rises 56%

I was looking at this company as a possible investment but could not readily find an ADR symbol:

"Energy storage solution company Leclanché SA has launched its new Marine Rack System (MRS), a modular, Lithium-ion battery system – the first of its type approved by international certification body DNV-GL...The Leclanché MRS will be used on the E-ferry in Denmark, the world’s largest 100 percent electric ferry by battery capacity, equipped with a 4.3 MWh Leclanché Lithium-ion battery and scheduled for launch later this year....In Scandinavia, there is the potential to convert nearly 200 ferry routes to electric within the next decade; Europe-wide over 1,000 ferries could be converted. The Leclanché MRS could also be used in other marine applications including hybridization and peak shaving of auxiliary loads of cargo vessels and cruise ships.

New Marine Battery System from Leclanché

 

[schonelucht]

I was looking at this company as a possible investment but could not readily find an ADR symbol:

Does the ISIN help you? Leclanché ǀ Shareholder information

 

[Ugliest1]

And luxury cars that create a sticky relationship at the dealer service department with a profit center motivation.

Hahahahaha, "sticky relationship". Great writing.

 

[kenliles]

New Note from MS-Jonas

Electric vehicle demand to skyrocket, but won't kill gasoline just yet

 

[zdriver]

Specifically, Jonas envisions a model where private car ownership declines, while "megafleets" of autonomous cars ferry passengers around at low costs, reducing the cost per mile from as much as $1 per vehicle mile today (76 cents per mile in the U.S., according to AAA) to as little as 20 cents over time.

Wait, didn't Adam just release a note saying Waymo could be valued at >$70bn, based on some insane $1.25/mi?

Yes.
Google's Waymo could eventually be a $70 billion company (GOOGL) | 05/23/17

But if Waymo can find a way to improve on the Morgan Stanley's modeled revenue of $1.25 per mile and 1% of global miles driven, Nowak and Jonas see a scenario in which the company's value could increase to roughly $140 billion.

 

[erthquake]

New Note from MS-Jonas

Electric vehicle demand to skyrocket, but won't kill gasoline just yet

Jonas's prediction is so devoid of logic, I don't know where to begin. Maybe he's shorting oil and giving a chance for his investors to get out of their long position. He's almost becoming a contra-indicator.

 

[Bet TSLA]

teslanewsfeed.com seems to be dead again
502 Bad Gateway
nginx/1.10.0 (Ubuntu)

 

[Curt Renz]

Tesla article published minutes ago by Fred Lambert of Electrek: Tesla’s stock (TSLA) rises to new highs as Model 3 gets closer to production

 

[Waiting4M3]

Every sedan I can remember owning had fold down seats, including our current 335d BMW that also happens to have red rear turn signals (gasp!).

The pre-2004 Prius didn't have fold-down seat, and it didn't sell well. As much as people complain about the HUD, the dash, to me a usable trunk/backseat is a much bigger deal. Tesla has said that they can fit a surfboard or bike in the M3, I don't see how it would be possible without the backseat being able to fold down.