2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Intl Professor]

Don't be so sensitive. We know you can't be bought.

Or, at least for us the price is too high (unlike TSLA).

 

[gigglehertz]

The pre-2004 Prius didn't have fold-down seat, and it didn't sell well.

I don't think it was the seats that was the issue. 2004 was right around the time I was thinking of buying a Prius. It didn't seem to get much attention outside of California until it won some car of the year or other which is when I first remember hearing about hybrids, then demand went crazy. I put down a deposit on one in San Antonio and was told there was about a 10 month wait since Toyota didn't anticipate that kind of demand in the US. I few weeks later they called to inform me it would probably be more like a year and a half, and did I want to test drive something else on the lot? I cancelled my reservation since I needed a new car to drive on my cross country move to the left coast so bought the cheapest car I could afford at the time. I don't remember thinking "oh boy finally folding seats" it was more like "oh wow what's a hybrid?"

 

[Waiting4M3]

I don't think it was the seats that was the issue. 2004 was right around the time I was thinking of buying a Prius. It didn't seem to get much attention outside of California until it won some car of the year or other which is when I first remember hearing about hybrids, then demand went crazy. I put down a deposit on one in San Antonio and was told there was about a 10 month wait since Toyota didn't anticipate that kind of demand in the US. I few weeks later they called to inform me it would probably be more like a year and a half, and did I want to test drive something else on the lot? I cancelled my reservation since I needed a new car to drive on my cross country move to the left coast so bought the cheapest car I could afford at the time. I don't remember thinking "oh boy finally folding seats" it was more like "oh wow what's a hybrid?"

I had wanted a hybrid around 2002-2003 when the Iraq war was happening, I didn't want the 2000-2003 model solely because of the non-folding backseat. But again the 2000-2003 model was kinda under the radar, so maybe it didn't see because Toyota didn't really want to sell it and most people haven't heard of it.

 

[austinEV]

Interesting read from NYT about why there is no Trump market freakout:

https://nyti.ms/2sgplsf

 

[MitchJi]

Interesting read from NYT about why there is no Trump market freakout:

https://nyti.ms/2sgplsf

Thank You! Very useful.

Probably should be posted in the macro thread as well.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Too many are short TSLA?

Once considered the titans of Wall Street, hedge fund managers are in trouble

 

[Starno]

If Amazon has the potential to be worth 3 trillion dollars :

A big VC investor thinks Amazon could be worth $6,000 per share

Social Capital's Palihapitiya says Amazon will one day be worth $3 trillion

I don't see why Tesla wouldn't have this potential as well. 18 000 dollars SP for the win.

#Yourenotatruelongunlessyourtargetis18000

 

[austinEV]

If Amazon has the potential to be worth 3 trillion dollars :

A big VC investor thinks Amazon could be worth $6,000 per share

Social Capital's Palihapitiya says Amazon will one day be worth $3 trillion

I don't see why Tesla wouldn't have this potential as well. 18 000 dollars SP for the win.

#Yourenotatruelongunlessyourtargetis18000

I am going to sell at 998, rebuy at 850 and go long for 18,000. #weaklong

 

[Mike Smith]

Given that Elon had said he'd be directly overseeing the development of the M3 production line, I think it's very telling that he's taken the kids on a vacation to Australia. Things must be going very well.

 

[austinEV]

Given that Elon had said he'd be directly overseeing the development of the M3 production line, I think it's very telling that he's taken the kids on a vacation to Australia. Things must be going very well.

I just want to interject AustinEV's second law: "Elon being happy and living like a successful rich guy does not imply that his companies are running perfectly" Every time we read tea leaves like this it turns out to be a useless indicator. Prior to every bad ER he is happy and tweeting and having a ball. His happiness is not tied up in knots with the knowledge that the stock ticker might go down for a week, in the way that mine is.

(AustinEV's first law: "Concerning a rumor, the most boring of all possibilities is almost certainly the truth")

 

[Fallenone]

Late heads up, Jose Salazar from SCE is going to talk about the Mira Loma project with Tesla tomorrow 11:20 am at UCSB. The talk is free and open to public. Finding parking spots at UCSB could be an issue though.

2017 Emerging Technologies Review

 

[Mike Smith]

I just want to interject AustinEV's second law: "Elon being happy and living like a successful rich guy does not imply that his companies are running perfectly" Every time we read tea leaves like this it turns out to be a useless indicator. Prior to every bad ER he is happy and tweeting and having a ball. His happiness is not tied up in knots with the knowledge that the stock ticker might go down for a week, in the way that mine is.

(AustinEV's first law: "Concerning a rumor, the most boring of all possibilities is almost certainly the truth")

Sure, but this isn't about his mood or tweeting, this is Elon deciding he can go on vacation.

 

[AlMc]

Uber fires former Google engineer at center of self-driving suit with Alphabet’s Waymo

UBER fires Levandowski.

 

[austinEV]

Sure, but this isn't about his mood or tweeting, this is Elon deciding he can go on vacation.

It might be going very well, very poorly, or something in between. He might have figured this is his last window to get out with his family before things get really nasty (like now they are just setting up robots and rails and he can't help that). I would be more impressed with a mid July vacation. But even then, it can also mean its so botched up that he cannot help it. Like a supplier is 4 weeks late and he can call and bitch from the beach, so he goes on vacation.

 

[TMSE]

Uber fires former Google engineer at center of self-driving suit with Alphabet’s Waymo

UBER fires Levandowski.

Levandowsky must have cashed out most of his share of the over $600m he got selling his company to Uber. Uber got duped here, and they can't do much about it.

Levandowsky can retire now to a nice private island or start another company to sell 6 months later to another sucker.

 

[Bobfitz1]

It might be going very well, very poorly, or something in between. He might have figured this is his last window to get out with his family before things get really nasty (like now they are just setting up robots and rails and he can't help that). I would be more impressed with a mid July vacation. But even then, it can also mean its so botched up that he cannot help it. Like a supplier is 4 weeks late and he can call and bitch from the beach, so he goes on vacation.

No way someone that driven would take a vacation with 6 weeks to go if things were not on track. He'd be sleeping on the factory floor with his A team right beside him!

 

[Starno]

No way someone that driven would take a vacation with 6 weeks to go if things were not on track. He'd be sleeping on the factory floor with his A team right beside him!

Exactly.
Elon only cares about the fundamental (like everyone should normally), that's why he might seem to make happy tweets even if the SP might go the down route sometimes.

If he takes a vacation that means the fundamentals are going great. Otherwise he'd spend all his energy trying to fix it. And not go at the other side of the planet.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I just want to interject AustinEV's second law: "Elon being happy and living like a successful rich guy does not imply that his companies are running perfectly" Every time we read tea leaves like this it turns out to be a useless indicator. Prior to every bad ER he is happy and tweeting and having a ball. His happiness is not tied up in knots with the knowledge that the stock ticker might go down for a week, in the way that mine is.

(AustinEV's first law: "Concerning a rumor, the most boring of all possibilities is almost certainly the truth")

I understand that his mood doesn't swing with ER, after all by the time of ER, everything is done and audited, what can he do? But when it comes to ramping up production, I think Elon's engagement (or apparent lack of) does have some significance.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Levandowsky must have cashed out most of his share of the over $600m he got selling his company to Uber. Uber got duped here, and they can't do much about it.

Levandowsky can retire now to a nice private island or start another company to sell 6 months later to another sucker.

Pretty much the norm for a lot of guys from Google's self-driving team

http://jalopnik.com/google-paid-****-you-money-at-self-driving-car-projec-1792306694

 

[Waiting4M3]

No way someone that driven would take a vacation with 6 weeks to go if things were not on track. He'd be sleeping on the factory floor with his A team right beside him!

So if things go badly, you have to have a sleep over and snuggle with the boss, that's one way to motivate people