2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Some additional "color" on the Texas legislature stalling on the Tesla bill (article's about the Buffett Bill, but provides good context): Warren Buffett visits Capitol and "Buffett Bill" is born

WTF Texas, why do you keep re-electing such crony capitalists?

Money Quote:
"
O’Connell, the Tesla representative, said the fast-tracked Buffett bill flies in the face of the “two immutable truths” that auto industry lobbyists promised O'Connell he would discover in the hallways of the Texas Capitol.

“One is that manufacturers cannot be dealers, and [the other is] that we don’t do carve-outs in the franchise practices act, or more generally, here in this Legislature,” O’Connell said. “And this seems to fail both of those tests.”
"

 

[zdriver]

And...

At least Cummins got a public hearing. A bill being pushed by Tesla Motors — arch enemy of an auto dealer network that has pumped millions into the campaign coffers of Abbott and others — is heading into oblivion faster than the company’s sleek Model X.

I'm confused, I thought the bill pushed by Tesla is failing? This seems to imply it's gaining votes, albeit not nearly as fast as the Model X sales are rising...

 

[Bobfitz1]

So if things go badly, you have to have a sleep over and snuggle with the boss, that's one way to motivate people

Lol. If things are going badly enough that Elon is sleeping at the factory, you better be there too if he has a question for you, rather than home in bed!

 

[racer26]

Levandowsky must have cashed out most of his share of the over $600m he got selling his company to Uber. Uber got duped here, and they can't do much about it.

Levandowsky can retire now to a nice private island or start another company to sell 6 months later to another sucker.

Only if he isn't in jail for IP theft.

 

[MitchJi]

I just want to interject AustinEV's second law: "Elon being happy and living like a successful rich guy does not imply that his companies are running perfectly" Every time we read tea leaves like this it turns out to be a useless indicator. Prior to every bad ER he is happy and tweeting and having a ball. His happiness is not tied up in knots with the knowledge that the stock ticker might go down for a week, in the way that mine is.

(AustinEV's first law: "Concerning a rumor, the most boring of all possibilities is almost certainly the truth")

It might be going very well, very poorly, or something in between. He might have figured this is his last window to get out with his family before things get really nasty (like now they are just setting up robots and rails and he can't help that). I would be more impressed with a mid July vacation. But even then, it can also mean its so botched up that he cannot help it. Like a supplier is 4 weeks late and he can call and bitch from the beach, so he goes on vacation.

He better concentrate on his day job because since his comments about the stock being overvalued his tip ranks score has taken a beating (thankfully!) .

 

[D-egg-O]

Not sure if this was posted here already.

Tesla - Specialized Disclosure Report

 

[geneclean55]

Interesting tweet from a noted Tesla hater

 

[ValueAnalyst]

More automation means more fixed costs or capital commitments upfront, but it lets you reduce end unit costs significantly due to large scale production it enables.

Moreover, a fully automated plant has mostly knowledge workers as opposed unskilled/semiskilled labor. This alone is a good reason to automate.

Does anyone know over how many units (per units of production methodology) the company will be depreciating the Gigafactory cap-ex?

 

[LargeHamCollider]

Does anyone know over how many units (per units of production methodology) the company will be depreciating the Gigafactory cap-ex?

A great question for anyone attending the shareholders meeting to ask.

 

[schonelucht]

Link from a known bear but it is worth a read. SK Innovation will invest nearly $9B over the next years in EV batteries. Their first target is 10GWh by 2020. Longer term, they want to reach higher to 30% of the market by 2025 or 33GWh. SK Innovation Focusing on Becoming the Top Global Company in Markets for Electric Vehicle Batteries by 2025

 

[mmd]

Link from a known bear but it is worth a read. SK Innovation will invest nearly $9B over the next years in EV batteries. Their first target is 10GWh by 2020. Longer term, they want to reach higher to 30% of the market by 2025 or 33GWh. SK Innovation Focusing on Becoming the Top Global Company in Markets for Electric Vehicle Batteries by 2025

SK Innovation will be 10 GWh in 2020. Tesla will need to be at 25-30 GWh for 500,000 cars in 2018, and 50 GWh cell production by 2020 for 1 mil cars. OK, 100K of those may be Model S using 18650 from Japan. Still, 25 GWh is minimum they will need next year, running 2-3 months ahead of car production.
Was there any GF output number mentioned in the 10-K? In the last ER, we only heard Elon answer that question with a vague 'a lot'. Usually he is quite good with these big numbers.

Tesla Plans to Sell 500,000 Cars in 2018

While listening to the March 31 Model 3 reveal, I heard Elon say "Gigafactiry is operational now". That was 14 months ago. If tesla wants to produce more in 2018, full steam construction should be in progress by now.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Interesting tweet from a noted Tesla hater

View attachment 229049

Curious thing that he has Two Hats next to his name...interest payment on what's owed?

 

[Lessmog]

Curious thing that he has Two Hats next to his name...interest payment on what's owed?

Could just be a Herr Doktor Doktor thing -- I don't know anythinga bout the man, but the name sounds German.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Could just be a Herr Doktor Doktor thing -- I don't know anythinga bout the man, but the name sounds German.

It's actually a reference on my part to a bet which he never paid, so two hats would be interest owed. Then again, since he put the hats there, I doubt he would be referring to a bet he weaseled out of... and you are probably right.

Journalist Who Announced He’d Eat A Hat If Tesla Autopilot Worked Decides… Mmm, Nah

Although, interestingly, he had NO hats on his tweets back then...

 

[JBRR]

Smartkarma | Unlocking the Value of Independent Insight

I've spent a fair amount of time in Macau, and while I agree with the author that status and showing off wealth is more of a thing in China, I've also meet plenty of rich chinese who seemed mellow enough to not be turned off by the tesla showroom style and selling approach.

Curious as to what people who've lived in China think on this subject.

 

[RobStark]

Smartkarma | Unlocking the Value of Independent Insight

I've spent a fair amount of time in Macau, and while I agree with the author that status and showing off wealth is more of a thing in China, I've also meet plenty of rich chinese who seemed mellow enough to not be turned off by the tesla showroom style and selling approach.

You mean not every rich person in China is exactly the same?

And there are now showoffs among the Scandinavian wealthy?


It is not just Tesla, every premium automaker has the same approach in China. If not more elitist.

 

[JBRR]

You mean not every rich person in China is exactly the same?

And there are now showoffs among the Scandinavian wealthy?


It is not just Tesla, every premium automaker has the same approach in China. If not more elitist.

The author seems to imply that they are alike enough that it is a problem.
I'm countering with anecdotal experience and asking for input from others who might know more.

 

[dennis]

SK Innovation will be 10 GWh in 2020. Tesla will need to be at 25-30 GWh for 500,000 cars in 2018, and 50 GWh cell production by 2020 for 1 mil cars. OK, 100K of those may be Model S using 18650 from Japan. Still, 25 GWh is minimum they will need next year, running 2-3 months ahead of car production.
Was there any GF output number mentioned in the 10-K? In the last ER, we only heard Elon answer that question with a vague 'a lot'. Usually he is quite good with these big numbers.

Tesla Plans to Sell 500,000 Cars in 2018

While listening to the March 31 Model 3 reveal, I heard Elon say "Gigafactiry is operational now". That was 14 months ago. If tesla wants to produce more in 2018, full steam construction should be in progress by now.

The 4 sections under construction a year ago have been enclosed for quite some time and presumably are either finished or nearing completion. That represents 1/7 of the final building which is supposed to produce 105gWh cells 150gWh modules by 2022. 4 or 5 more sections are now enclosed and should be operational next year. They will have more than sufficient factory space to produce 25++ gWh in 2018. And they have already broken ground on the next phase for additional 2019 production.

 

[WarpedOne]

$337 and rising

Tencent, is that you?

 

[DurandalAI]

Interesting tweet from a noted Tesla hater

View attachment 229049

A year ago I was thinking that they could get out 30,000 in 2017, but this surprises even me. Of course, just because they have the parts doesn't mean they're using them, but hopefully you wouldn't order parts that you wouldn't plan on consuming in 30-60 days as that's just bad inventory management. While Tesla may not be able to deliver the 40-45,000 cars in 2017, this means they certainly THINK that they will.

Edit: I hope I'm wrong, and they DO deliver more than 30,000 cars, but since I made that prediction such a long time ago, I'll just stick with it so I can be pleasantly surprised.