2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[FredTMC]

What's this 8k tesla filed after the market closed?

 

[mrdoubleb]

1/3

Ok, ladies & gents, we are 5 work days away from the end of the quarter, so time for some speculation on deliveries based on some real-life data. I am going to split this to 3 posts to make it more digestible. This first one is some background.

As we all know, Q1 was great allover and in Europe it was actually a record quarter with 6609 cars delivered. But, due to the extraordinary January and February (December overhang), most of us were ready to see a sequential slide for the first 2 months of Q2 in Europe.

Surprisingly, May was so strong, that the finally tally caught up with Q1, quarter to date. According to our estimates, January + February saw 2538 cars delivered in Europe, while April + May came in at 2550. Wow.

Note that the following will be Norwegian data only, no guarantees the same is playing out all over Europe or the rest of the world. We also know that Q1 was further enhanced by the Hong Kong “end of incentives” rush. However, on the upside, Insideevs.com data suggest, that April+May in the US was about 1000 cars or 23% (!) higher, than January+February which is very bullish for Q2.

 

[FluxCap]

What's this 8k tesla filed after the market closed?

More money from the ABL, looks like:

tsla-8k_20170619.htm

 

[mrdoubleb]

1/3

Ok, ladies & gents, we are 5 work days away from the end of the quarter, so time for some speculation on deliveries based on some real-life data.

2/3

The data below is from the itanywhere.no registration stats for Model S and Model X. which is almost real time and has proven to be reliable so far.

Model S

Ok, so you can see the charts for the past 6 months, up until EOB today. On the X axis, you have the days, below that the months. Here are some highlights:

· Q1 started very unusually with the front-loaded January – normally the first half of the quarter is rather flat. (December overhang)
· Also, Q1 is the usual ups & downs with the end of quarter rush as the cars arrive, however Q2 is a steady continuous rise.
· At the same time in March, so 5 business days before the end of the quarter, we had 226 Model S delivered vs. 164 EOB today.
· That 226 was 75% of the 298 March ended with. If 164 is 75% of June, we should end with 218.
· However, notice the steady climb of Model S deliveries throughout the month and the quarter, unlike Q1. Maybe we won’t totally close the gap but it should be a lot closer than it appears today.

 

[mrdoubleb]

2/3

The data below is from the itanywhere.no registration stats for Model S and Model X. which is almost real time and has proven to be reliable so far.

Model S

3/3

Model X

Now this is a very bullish story. We see them same change of pattern between Q1 and Q2 as for S, but with a much stronger volume.

· Same time in March, X was at 315 vs 432 as of today.
· That 315 was 70% of the 446 March ended with. If 432 is 70% of June totals, we will end with 617.
· Will that happen? Probably not, but most likely X will have a much stronger June than March.

TL;DR

Same time Q1, Norway had 1009 Teslas delivered with 5 days to go vs. 897 as of today, however with the upwards trajectory of both S and super strong X deliveries heading into the last week, most of that difference can probably be made up. After all that’s just 20 cars per day during what normally is the busiest week of deliveries in the quarter.

 

[D-egg-O]

Tesla's warranty issue: PLEASE HELP

Before I describe my ordeal at Tesla Service Center, which has opted to no longer honor my extended warranty, I wanted to know if any TMC members here would know which Tesla corporate official I should contact to help resolve this matter (please PM me). The service personnel at Tesla Pullman in Costa Mesa, CA who goes by the name of "Joe" is not very helpful and is threatening to deal with. The not-so "TESLA EXPERIENCE" today makes me wonder if this has to do with the coming M3 launch, now that Tesla's fortune is starting to change, are they going to turn their backs on MS owners?

As many of you know I am a huge Tesla supporter since 2013 but this is unacceptable. I purchased a used MS through a private party, who gave me their word that the extended warranty would be transferable to the new owner (me). The owner even went as far as emailing Tesla to ask about the warranty transfer procedure (here is Tesla response):

This is Deen from Tesla. If you could send the information below to the new owner, we will update the vehicle in our system:

Thank you for contacting Tesla Motors and congratulations on your new purchase. In order to process the transfer of ownership for your vehicle and provide you with mobile app access we will need the following. * Color copy or photo of your current driver’s license or state ID. * Copy or picture of your title or registration * Email address you would like linked to your account (My Tesla email if account is already created) * Home or mailing address * Phone number Please send this info to [[email protected]%20][email protected] and we will begin the transfer process, this process can take up to 2-3 business days and once completed you will be notified by email. If you have any questions regarding this process feel free to give our Technical Support team a call 24/7 at 1-877-79-TESLA (83752). Sincerely, Your Name/Signature

Best.

Having followed Tesla since 2013, I know better than to buy a MS without an extended warranty. So after buying the vehicle in August 2016, I brought my paperwork into Tesla (Pullman) and talked to the clerk at the front desk. I asked him what type of paper work I needed to get the warranty transferred and how long the process would take. His response was that it will take several weeks and I can complete this paperwork "anytime." After showing him the above email, the Tesla clerk also assured me that the extended warranty would be transferrable "no problem" and that I can take my time. The transfer paperwork was completed on 9/29/2016. Tesla informed this to me via email:

Welcome to Tesla

Model S #Pxxxxxxx has been transferred to your Tesla account. You can manage your profile online or using the Tesla app. If you have forgotten your Tesla password, you can reset it here.

Two months after buying the MS, I brought the vehicle in for some repairs. The service team checked my extended warranty and I was good go. I had several repairs done to the vehicle and Tesla did not charge me.

Your Tesla service invoice is attached. If you have any questions, please contact the Tesla Service Costa Mesa service center.

Tesla Service Costa Mesa
3020 Pullman Street
Costa Mesa,CA 92626
714-641-3949
[email protected]

The above email was sent to me on 10/25/16. Several months later, I needed more repairs on the MS so I brought the vehicle in again, Tesla honored the warranty and did not charge me.

Hi XXXX,

Your Model S service appointment is confirmed for April 26, 2017, 05:00 PM at the Costa Mesa Service service center.

Today, I brought the MS in to complain about a "squealing noise" coming from the motor, the service rep drove with me and heard the noise every single time I accelerated. He went to talk to his supervisor and they both came told me "this was normal." Although I knew this isn't a normal issue because my friends also have MS's that did not have squealing issues, I did not argue. I simply said "so Tesla decided to no longer warranty this part? Bummer, Ok..."

As I started to check out a loaner, their service team member told me my warranty has been "voided" as of September 3rd 2016". I told them this is impossible because I brought the car in twice and Tesla has honored my extended warranty the past 10 months why would it suddenly change now? The service tech. brought over his manager and then someone higher up known as "Joe." Joe asked me to show him "paperwork" that proves my car is under extended warranty. So I pulled out my email from Tesla and showed him, this email was confirmed Sept. 29. However, Joe stated that his system shows the warranty was cancelled on September 3rd. I immediately told Joe how can this be when Tesla has been honoring my extended warranty for the past 10 months? Joe told me I got lucky and that Tesla should have charged me. A little bit of frustration going back and forth pursued and Joe told me "would you like for TESLA to retroactively charge you for all past repairs?" This was quite threatening, he also suggested that this was not Tesla's fault and brought up the word "lawyer", "what would a Tesla lawyer think about this?" he asked me.... I was shocked and could not believe the tone and manner in which Joe/Tesla has changed from serving customers to throwing them under the bus. He also tried to blame this on the previous owner, Joe stated that the previous owner pulled a fast one on me and cancelled the warranty before I dealt with Tesla. Again, I reemphasized that this wasn't my fault, and that Tesla told me I was good to go with the new warranty, which was also honored the past two times I brought in the vehicle. I told Joe I will be brining this up to corporate, his response was "I AM CORPORATE!\." Unbelievable, the ego here.... I told Joe that I will speak with someone higher than you capable of resolving this.

I then proceeded to call the old MS owner, he told me there were two things he bought in 2013 the Pre-Paid Service Plan and the Extended Warranty, and that he only cancelled the "Pre-paid Service Plan" and he never cancelled the "Extended Warranty." The Tesla service Tech heard our phone conversation and asked that the old owner forward me the email. So here is his email asking Tesla to cancel the "Service Plan":

Sent: Friday, August 26, 2016 12:35 PM
To: honolulu_service <[email protected]>
Subject: Cancel service plan

Hi,
I would like to cancel the service plan for the following vin: xxxxxxxxxxxxxx

I have sold the vehicle and will not be transferring the service plan to the new owner.

Thanks

Tesla responded:

Subject: RE: Cancel service plan
Date: August 29, 2016 at 3:17:47 PM PDT




Just letting you know your email was received and has been forwarded to the appropriate team for processing. It may take several weeks, so thank you for your patience.

If anything else is needed, we will get in touch with you.

Hope you've had a great weekend, and wishing you a nice week ahead!

Aloha,

I then attempted to reach out to Joe but he was on a "conference call" and that I should email him. I was so upset at the lack of proper customer communication and threatening manner coming from Joe that I had decided to ask for help here from TMC members, does anyone here know a Tesla corporate official that can straighten this out for me?

Thanks.

Have you tried PM'ing Jon McNeil?

 

[tander]

What's this 8k tesla filed after the market closed?

Sounds good to me, why not up things while they can?

 

[sundaymorning]

Have you tried PM'ing Jon McNeil?

Thanks for your quick response, no I haven't who is Jon by the way? Is he someone who works for Tesla or someone here on the forum? Would you happen to have his direct message info? Thanks again.

 

[FredTMC]

More money from the ABL, looks like:

tsla-8k_20170619.htm

Thx Flux. Yup. Increased ABL by $625m apparently. Increases ABL cap to $1.8B

 

[D-egg-O]

Thanks for your quick response, no I haven't who is Jon by the way? Is he someone who works for Tesla or someone here on the forum? Would you happen to have his direct message info? Thanks again.

VP of Tesla sales and service. He responded to the TMC community when a story about someone waiting 8 months for his Model S to get repaired went viral. Motley Fool story - Tesla Replacement Part Delays

 

[AlMc]

Thanks for your quick response, no I haven't who is Jon by the way? Is he someone who works for Tesla or someone here on the forum? Would you happen to have his direct message info? Thanks again.

Head of Service. He will help. Bypass the SC and go right to him

 

[tinm]

VP of Tesla sales and service. He responded to the TMC community when a story about someone waiting 8 months for his Model S to get repaired went viral. Motley Fool story - Tesla Replacement Part Delays

President of Worldwide Sales and Service, just for the record.

 

[tinm]

Tesla is talking to the music labels about creating its own streaming service

Tesla looking at doing a music streaming service may be the dumbest, most boneheaded, money-losing idea Elon (or whoever is responsible for it) has come up with yet.

Seriously: you do not make money in music. You lose money. The way the digital music industry works is, tech companies, under the impression they've built services for consumers to get streamed music, actually are simply transferring capital from their own coffers to the labels. No-one else makes money. The labels, that's it. Not even the artists really. This is the way it has always been. This is the way it will always be.

I suspect the reason Elon's looking at this is the SpaceX/Google low-earth-orbit satellite global wifi service (remember? Google sunk a billion into SpaceX for it). Surely every car in the Tesla fleet will be connected to it instead of (at least in the US) AT&T for its network connection back to Fremont. And no doubt Tesla would like to monetize the hell out of that satellite network. But this is a trap. It's going to cost Tesla a lot of money. It's bad.

I've worked in the digital music industry. I have friends who have worked at high levels all over the digital music industry. It's a trap. Don't go there, Tesla. You'll waste a ton of shareholder value.

 

[Crowded Mind]

Tesla looking at doing a music streaming service may be the dumbest, most boneheaded, money-losing idea Elon (or whoever is responsible for it) has come up with yet.

Seriously: you do not make money in music. You lose money. The way the digital music industry works is, tech companies, under the impression they've built services for consumers to get streamed music, actually are simply transferring capital from their own coffers to the labels. No-one else makes money. The labels, that's it. Not even the artists really. This is the way it has always been. This is the way it will always be.

I suspect the reason Elon's looking at this is the SpaceX/Google low-earth-orbit satellite global wifi service (remember? Google sunk a billion into SpaceX for it). Surely every car in the Tesla fleet will be connected to it instead of (at least in the US) AT&T for its network connection back to Fremont. And no doubt Tesla would like to monetize the hell out of that satellite network. But this is a trap. It's going to cost Tesla a lot of money. It's bad.

I've worked in the digital music industry. I have friends who have worked at high levels all over the digital music industry. It's a trap. Don't go there, Tesla. You'll waste a ton of shareholder value.

Would you feel differently if they eventually integrate streaming video as well, as a part of the Tesla Network, or not?

 

[sundaymorning]

Head of Service. He will help. Bypass the SC and go right to him

Thanks for the support and quick response guys. I received a call from Sandra the Manager at Tesla, Pullman who was alerted to this matter by Joe. I was told that this issue was above Joe's clearance and that he did follow proper protocol. The error that was made was due to a "clerical" error and was quickly resolved by Sandra after she was on the phone for 30 minutes with her people. This was more of what Tesla Service should look like and more representative of my experiences with them in the past. @D-egg-O thanks again for such a fast response. What a day... still love you Tesla!

 

[Ameliorate]

Thanks for the support and quick response guys. I received a call from Sandra the Manager at Tesla, Pullman who was alerted to this matter by Joe. I was told that this issue was above Joe's clearance and that he did follow proper protocol. The error that was made was due to a "clerical" error and was quickly resolved by Sandra after she was on the phone for 30 minutes with her people. This was more of what Tesla Service should look like and more representative of my experiences with them in the past. @D-egg-O thanks again for such a fast response. What a day... still love you Tesla!

Joe, or Jon? Maybe Joe has some redeeming qualities?

 

[mmd]

Thanks for the support and quick response guys. I received a call from Sandra the Manager at Tesla, Pullman who was alerted to this matter by Joe. I was told that this issue was above Joe's clearance and that he did follow proper protocol. The error that was made was due to a "clerical" error and was quickly resolved by Sandra after she was on the phone for 30 minutes with her people. This was more of what Tesla Service should look like and more representative of my experiences with them in the past. @D-egg-O thanks again for such a fast response. What a day... still love you Tesla!

Interesting. Does everyone with a "clerical error" issue need to post here in the investor section to get a proper resolution?
Did you delete your original post, or some mod did?

 

[geneclean55]

Interesting. Does everyone with a "clerical error" issue need to post here in the investor section to get a proper resolution?
Did you delete your original post, or some mod did?

I hear you get even quicker resolution to problems over on the Ford motors investors forum

 

[sundaymorning]

Did you delete your original post, or some mod did?

I deleted it myself as the issue was resolved in a timely fashion.

 

[SteveG3]

Tesla looking at doing a music streaming service may be the dumbest, most boneheaded, money-losing idea Elon (or whoever is responsible for it) has come up with yet.

Seriously: you do not make money in music. You lose money. The way the digital music industry works is, tech companies, under the impression they've built services for consumers to get streamed music, actually are simply transferring capital from their own coffers to the labels. No-one else makes money. The labels, that's it. Not even the artists really. This is the way it has always been. This is the way it will always be.

I suspect the reason Elon's looking at this is the SpaceX/Google low-earth-orbit satellite global wifi service (remember? Google sunk a billion into SpaceX for it). Surely every car in the Tesla fleet will be connected to it instead of (at least in the US) AT&T for its network connection back to Fremont. And no doubt Tesla would like to monetize the hell out of that satellite network. But this is a trap. It's going to cost Tesla a lot of money. It's bad.

I've worked in the digital music industry. I have friends who have worked at high levels all over the digital music industry. It's a trap. Don't go there, Tesla. You'll waste a ton of shareholder value.

Would their plan of seeing a fleet of Tesla vehicles go from the current vehicle average of 4% usage to something many many times that amount change the economics in your view?

Alternatively, Tela may see a future where they are competing with Apple, Google, etc. to sell the software for autonomous vehicle capability, and they don't want to look less attractive for not being able to bundle such capability with media services matching such companies' offerings.