2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Gerardf]

Look what Keef Wivaneff posted, was even to much for Spiegel :



Do not want to make this bigger than it is, but people like that are not always harmless fools.
Guy is definetly getting more extreme in his hate for anything Musk.

Maybe this should be send to the NHTSA, As I understand they have still not deleted his filings.

 

[Mike Smith]

Solar roof: A very expensive product, which many rich people will want to buy, and only one company offers. Tesla can name their margin on something that's probably going to cost around $50,000. Plus the battery they'll sell with it and (being rich people), probably a car. Why aren't the analysts understanding and valuing this.

 

[mrdoubleb]

I don't remember any post here about this Barclay's research note published last Thursday about possible shock events ("Black Swan events") to the commodity markets in 2017.

Appearently delivering the Model 3 on time is one of them.

 

[Mike Smith]

Look what Keef Wivaneff posted, was even to much for Spiegel :

View attachment 209775

Do not want to make this bigger than it is, but people like that are not always harmless fools.
Guy is definetly getting more extreme in his hate for anything Musk.

Maybe this should be send to the NHTSA, As I understand they have still not deleted his filings.

I just read back through a few days of his tweets. There's some pretty disturbing stuff in there directed toward Elon. I assume his security team is aware of this guy?

 

[oneday]

I added estimated Model 3 revenue to my spreadsheet based on my assumptions for ASP. 42k USD for base Model S (based on Musk tweet), 48k USD for 70 kWh pack and 63k USD for 80 kWh pack. I've based the ASPs on my thoughts for option pricing, but the numbers are probably low for 2017: Attempting to price out options for Model 3 (Part 2!)

View attachment 209767

Gigafactory output spreadsheet.zip

Great data in that sheet. Thanks.

Just curious how you came up with the 31.164 GWh annualized output for Jan 2018. Tesla's stated goal is to begin 2018 with an annual run rate of 35 GWh. Are you just assigning an Elon time factor to this goal?

I drew up a couple curves to estimate 2017 cell production. I assumed Tesla would exit 2017 with 35 GWh of annual run rate.

These include a linear curve, linearized e^x, and typical e^x exponential curve.

Calculating area under the curve gives us 2017 production if any of these curves actually match gigafactory production.
Linear = 17.5 GWh
Linearized e^x = 14.62 GWh
Exponential e^x = 8.52 GWh

Now the problem is, I have no idea what kind of ramp Tesla/Panasonic plans to achieve. Maybe it will be linear. Or more of a step function, which would model to linear. Or possibly an exponential step model, i.e. Slowly get a line up and running to capacity, then repeat with the next line.

If Tesla produces 100,000 model 3's with an average battery size of 60kWh that's 6 GWh. So if Tesla only produces the lower end of my curves that only leaves 2.52 GWh for Tesla energy.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Great data in that sheet. Thanks.

Just curious how you came up with the 31.164 GWh annualized output for Jan 2018. I remember hearing or reading somewhere Tesla's stated goal is to begin 2018 with an annual run rate of 35 GWh. Are you just assigning an Elon time factor to this goal?

This was my semi-pessimistic ramp. It could go faster.

 

[All Your Bases]

I just read back through a few days of his tweets. There's some pretty disturbing stuff in there directed toward Elon. I assume his security team is aware of this guy?

I believe Keef is rather harmless from a security standpoint.

Below is Keef's big moment of fame, a moment he desperately tries to reenact with Tesla as the chosen victim.

He even composed a song about the alleged solar scam in the video, and performed this in his local Aussie boozer. That self embarrassing video has, sadly, been removed from youtube.

 

[oneday]

This was my semi-pessimistic ramp. It could go faster.

Got ya!

Did you break out anywhere your estimated GWh of production from the gigafactory for 2017. What is your estimated 2017 production in GWh from that chart? And to reach that are you assuming 13ah for ea 2170 cell?

 

[vgrinshpun]

Look what Keef Wivaneff posted, was even to much for Spiegel :

View attachment 209775

Do not want to make this bigger than it is, but people like that are not always harmless fools.
Guy is definetly getting more extreme in his hate for anything Musk.

Maybe this should be send to the NHTSA, As I understand they have still not deleted his filings.

Abusive posts like that should be reported using Twitter "report" button as soon as you see them.

This feature works as I had a while ago two abusive posts by Mark Spiegel removed.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Got ya!

Did you break out anywhere your estimated GWh of production from the gigafactory for 2017. What is your estimated 2017 production in GWh from that chart? And to reach that are you assuming 13ah for ea 2170 cell?

I'm assuming 14 Wh/cell for TE (NMC chemistry) and 20 Wh/cell for TA (NCA chemistry). (These are my best working estimates. I would help *immensely* if someone could dissect a Powerwall 2... I can't buy one because they don't sell them here. :/)

And I haven't broken out annual production in GWh. Currently I'm at work, so I can't do anything with the spreadsheet, but a few calculations tell me the figures are 5.19 GWh for TE and 4.51 GWh for TA, 9.7 GWh total.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Abusive posts like that should be reported using Twitter "report" button as soon as you see them.

This feature works as I had a while ago two abusive posts by Mark Spiegel removed.

I've reported this tweet and encourage anybody with twitter account to do the same. The more reports it gets, the sooner it will be removed. This crap should not stand. Note that "Report Tweet" feature under "More" button is available on the desk top version (not available on mobile versions). After selecting "Report Tweet" there are several options to provide further detail on the reasons for reporting. I chose "It is abusive or harmful" and then "Threatening violence or physical harm".

 

[KLC13]

I've reported this tweet and encourage anybody with twitter account to do the same. The more reports it gets, the sooner it will be removed. This crap should not stand. Note that "Report Tweet" feature under "More" button is available on the desk top version (not available on mobile versions). After selecting "Report Tweet" there are several options to provide further detail on the reasons for reporting. I chose "It is abusive or harmful" and then "Threatening violence or physical harm".

I totally second that. Keef has already blocked after I showed him (multiple times from different accounts) that he doesnt care for ppl's safety but just personally hates Musk. If he cared about safety of ppl, he would at least tweet once about VW emissions and GM ignition switch (which costs $0.5) scandal that killed many

 

[vgrinshpun]

I totally second that. Keef has already blocked after I showed him (multiple times from different accounts) that he doesnt care for ppl's safety but just personally hates Musk. If he cared about safety of ppl, he would at least tweet once about VW emissions and GM ignition switch (which costs $0.5) scandal that killed many

There are three more of his tweets that I reported. Hopefully others will join me in reporting so the tweets are removed.

 

[T1989]

Personally I wouldn't prefer to get his tweets removed. These tweets need to stay up, as future reference for our children and grandchildren. Besides, it would be easier for non-tesla fans and new people to the EV industry to see how crazy these people actually are.

 

[JRP3]

Personally I wouldn't prefer to get his tweets removed. These tweets need to stay up, as future reference for our children and grandchildren. Besides, it would be easier for non-tesla fans and new people to the EV industry to see how crazy these people actually are.

I'm inclined to agree. Removing them will make him appear saner than he really is. Let the light shine on his lunacy.

 

[mikevbf]

Solar roof: A very expensive product, which many rich people will want to buy, and only one company offers. Tesla can name their margin on something that's probably going to cost around $50,000. Plus the battery they'll sell with it and (being rich people), probably a car. Why aren't the analysts understanding and valuing this.

Actually what I am excited about the solar roof announcement is what Musk said in a later Solar City acquisition meeting, that the solar roof parts and labor would cost the same as replacing the roof with the same roofing material that solar tiles imitate, thus making the solar all bonus. It is a no brainer if you you had planned to replace your roof with something such as slate even if the roof's orientation and shading is less than ideal. The solar benefit is essentially free which is HUGE. There is so much in the pipeline, I would imagine very few analysis have an accurate picture of how big Tesla will become in the 5 to 10 years. I am betting for anyone who can stomach the swings for the long hold will be amply rewarded.

 

[brantse]

Actually what I am excited about the solar roof announcement is what Musk said in a later Solar City acquisition meeting, that the solar roof parts and labor would cost the same as replacing the roof with the same roofing material that solar tiles imitate, thus making the solar all bonus. It is a no brainer if you you had planned to replace your roof with something such as slate even if the roof's orientation and shading is less than ideal. The solar benefit is essentially free which is HUGE. There is so much in the pipeline, I would imagine very few analysis have an accurate picture of how big Tesla will become in the 5 to 10 years. I am betting for anyone who can stomach the swings for the long hold will be amply rewarded.

I believe Musk said that it would be less expensive than installing a new roof along with a comparable PV system. I don't think the PV is "free".

 

[neroden]

It's supposed to be good news that he's a liar instead of delusional?!

I don't think it's *news* that Trump's a liar. He was actively contradicting himself from one day to the next, specifically saying what each audience wanted to hear. Even most of the Trump supporters I've communicated with admitted openly that he was lying -- when he said A to the first audience and Not A to the second audience, they assumed the one they wanted to believe was the true statement and the other one was the lie. :eyeroll: So the good news is that he's a sane liar instead of a delusional liar, I guess?

 

[racer26]

I believe Musk said that it would be less expensive than installing a new roof along with a comparable PV system. I don't think the PV is "free".

You are incorrect.

Musk said "Its looking like it will be cheaper than a traditional roof, even before you account for the electricity generated". This was at the SCTY vote's webcast.

He also said "If its cheaper than a traditional roof, lasts longer than a traditional roof, looks fantastic, AND generates electricity for you, why wouldn't you buy it?".

 

[neroden]

They can do cold weather indoors.

Still cheaper to do cold weather indoors in Buffalo or Detroit or Ann Arbor than in California.