2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[RobStark]

Except...it IS an American company leading the way! And Elon is behind the wheel.

Until CalExit that is....

 

[PaulusdB]

this article asserts that Tesla opened a Dubai regional office (even put it in the article title). this may well simply be a mistaken description of their pop-up store. I'll shoot an email to IR, but if anyone has better access to IR, perhaps you could check.

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/New...-Motors-launch-regional-office-in-Dubai-.html

Here are some snapshots of a Tesla stand in The Dubai Mall earlier today.
Hardly counts even as a 'pop up store', IMHO.

 

[esk8mw]

I took a skim. This isn't a SCTY lawsuit, it's the ridiculous one where the Spiegel-like creature recites a bunch of bear talking points and demands to inspect Tesla's corporate records because they claim Tesla was fabricating demand and lied in guidance and whatnot.

The court found fully in Tesla's favor, just as I predicted many months ago. I can't remember which member(s) I went back and forth on re: this case as I tried to convince them it was frivolous junk not worth giving a second thought to (might be on my list now)...but yea. You were wrong, whoever you were.

EDIT: The readable opinion is here if you want it Haque v. Tesla Motors, Inc.

You know what? I started reading it more closely and read the whole opinion. I highly recommend it.

This judge just EVISCERATES the plaintiffs' arguments. It's beautiful, really. It's rare to see a judicial opinion that is so definitive and protective of a party, especially a corporation. Usually it's the judge acknowledging that the company could have done more, should consider being clearer, etc., but the plaintiff didn't state the claim adequately/precedent supports the defendant on balance, etc. But no. He just blasts the weak arguments again and again without mercy.

Literally, this is the same thing as a frothing at the mouth short laying out all the bear talking points to a disinterested and intelligent third party (i.e., judge) and the response is just "nope!" In a strange way it reinforced all my reasons for staying long on TSLA. The judge answered all the talking points in pretty much the exact same way I would respond - and have been responding - on this forum. I bet the judge put Haque on Ignore after issuing his opinion, too.

 

[SPadival]

So is this Standards Australia draft guidelines some kind of political posturing manifestation or just garden variety cover their ass thing?

Just political posturing.. I think the PM is under pressure from his party MPs to go full tilt against renewables. But I don't think it will be popular with the voters. Lots of early solar adaptors here due to the isolation and high energy prices.

 

[Ugliest1]

Who will buy 200 cars at once at full prices, without first trying out a few?

Oh, I don't know. Perhaps this guy: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3515463/Inside-life-rich-Saudi-playboy-fleet-golden-cars-taken-London-storm.html

 

[RobStark]

Here are some snapshots of a Tesla stand in The Dubai Mall earlier today.

Tesla has that "kiosk" in a mall walkway but will open a regular store this summer in UAE.

 

[DurandalAI]

If it's a good ER, the rise will likely continue, he could then save the ammo of the release a couple weeks after ER to drag it out.

If M3 turns out to be on time, how many longs here will hold or buy more?

Depends on available capital, but assuming I had the availability, I would buy more. Then again, I would buy more right now if I could. (Oh wait, I just did.) I have a set amount transfer into my account weekly, giving me more to throw at Tesla when I see fit.

 

[RobStark]

How a GM sale of Opel could open door to purchase of FCA

 

[AudubonB]

I bet the judge put Haque on Ignore after issuing his opinion, too.

"Just shut the Haque up", perhaps?

 

[SteveG3]

Ron Baron will be on CNBC Wednesday FYI.........

Booyah.

nice. any idea what part of the day?

 

[mmd]

Oh, I don't know. Perhaps this guy: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3515463/Inside-life-rich-Saudi-playboy-fleet-golden-cars-taken-London-storm.html

Yep. Many Asian billionaires live in London, not Dubai.

Edit: Explain to me again, why he will be waiting 3-4 years i fhe could buy it much earlier in London?

Edit2: Answering to geneclean55's response below. What you said seems difficult to believe. UK cars drive on different side of the road. I will see the video you mentioned later. Difficult to believe they will be road legal.

 

[geneclean55]

Yep. Many Asian billionaires live in London, not Dubai.

Not quite correct. Many VERY wealthy citizens from the Middle East decide to escape the heat from their native countries, and hang out in London particularly during the summer months. They load up the supercars (with Middle Eastern car tags) and ship them over to the UK prior to their arrival. See 'Supercars of London' on youtube for more on this phenomenon.

 

[willowspuppy]

You know what? I started reading it more closely and read the whole opinion. I highly recommend it.

This judge just EVISCERATES the plaintiffs' arguments. It's beautiful, really. It's rare to see a judicial opinion that is so definitive and protective of a party, especially a corporation. Usually it's the judge acknowledging that the company could have done more, should consider being clearer, etc., but the plaintiff didn't state the claim adequately/precedent supports the defendant on balance, etc. But no. He just blasts the weak arguments again and again without mercy.

Literally, this is the same thing as a frothing at the mouth short laying out all the bear talking points to a disinterested and intelligent third party (i.e., judge) and the response is just "nope!" In a strange way it reinforced all my reasons for staying long on TSLA. The judge answered all the talking points in pretty much the exact same way I would respond - and have been responding - on this forum. I bet the judge put Haque on Ignore after issuing his opinion, too.

Footnote 97 was an absolute gem!

 

[GregRF]

You know what? I started reading it more closely and read the whole opinion. I highly recommend it.

This judge just EVISCERATES the plaintiffs' arguments. It's beautiful, really. It's rare to see a judicial opinion that is so definitive and protective of a party, especially a corporation.

Thanks for the recommendation. I cannot claim to read many legal documents but I find it hard to believe many findings quote The Princess Bride in its footnotes.

97 Pl.'s Opening Br. 2 (stating that for both 2016 Q1 and Q2 Tesla's lack of knowledge is inconceivable); THE PRINCESS BRIDE (20th Century Fox 1987) (Vizzini: "Inconceivable!" Inigo Montoya: "You keep using that word. I do no think it means what you think it means.").

Edit: Dammit willowspuppy beat me to it.

 

[MitchJi]

I took a skim. This isn't a SCTY lawsuit, it's the ridiculous one where the Spiegel-like creature recites a bunch of bear talking points and demands to inspect Tesla's corporate records because they claim Tesla was fabricating demand and lied in guidance and whatnot.

I think you meant:
This isn't the ridiculous SCTY lawsuit, it's the ridiculous one where...

 

[jhm]

I'm really curious, why people are so obsessed with multiple Gigafactories. What does "buy a Gigafactory" even mean? Panasonic won't be happy setting up equipment at so many places while they still need to sell 700 million of the 18650 cells to Tesla under the 2013 purchase contract.

Can you please explain the benefits of setting up another GF in the middle of a desert, while the largest mines and markets for Tesla's cars are all quite far away from there? Tesla may get some incentives to build a GF there, UAE encourages foreign direct investment. But how is it good for the shareholders? Is it really better to build a GF there vs. some other place?

Most of the electricity generated from solar can be consumed right away, or stored in electric cars by demand shifting. There is no reason to first store everything into batteries, then extract that energy back. EVs are a nice grid stabilizing agents if they can charge when supply is excess. V2G can even supply power if needed.

It is no wonder that storage is a tiny sliver of the total solar generation market. For example, India now has 50 GW solar production, but is only considering a 10 MWh pilot storage project in New Delhi. Battery storage is still expensive and often unnecessary.

It's quite simple. About 10 TWh annual capacity is needed to remove crude from the global energy market, about 3 TWh to remove all fossil fuels from the power market, and a bit more to cover the heating markets. For those of us interested in the global transition to renewables, the score is kept by GF capacity regardless who owns it.

Now if Tesla is developing a lights off GF, this would be excellent for an oil wealth country like UAE or Saudia Arabia. It will not require a lot of immigrant labor, but create high paying jobs. It will leverage super high insolation and not strain water resources. It will leverage shipping ports adapted to receive raw material and ship out finished goods. Finally, the future of oil comes down to competition between barrels and batteries. Countries that are extremely long on barrels need to hedge against competition from batteries. GF capacity is a natural hedge. Indeed, if they play it right they could use batteries as a way to force marginal oil producers out of the market and dominate what remains of residual demand for oil in a post peak world. So owning a significant share of global GF capacity retains the market power they have enjoyed in the oil market. Without it they surely lose market power to all other countries that build out GF capacity.

So why build out massive solar projects just to transmit power to Europe? That sort of export plan comes no where close to retaining any market power in anything. They'd be a simple price taker competiting with rooftop solar on Europe. They need rather to develop strong domestic industrial uses for that power and find ways to export goods and services.

For example, Saudia Arabia is working with GE to develop a plant that produces gas turbines. Sadly, the value of such a plant is disrupted precisely by batteries. So this actually could prove to be worthless economic diversification. So if the kingdom were to properly understand that GF capacity is the greatest threat to their national economy, they would do well not to invest in other things that are disrupted by batteries. So investing in transmission lines to Europe is just a dumb as investing in gas turbine fabs. What they need to invest in are things that will be economic engines in a world that runs on renewables and batteries. So I would recommend they own a share of GF capacity.

 

[jhm]

70% profit is derived from full sized trucks and full sized truck based SUV.

This does not include crossovers like Explorer, Escape,Edge and Flex. Or Lincoln MKC,MKK or MKT. These are based on front wheel drive car platforms and are the segment with highest sales growth. Most of the utility of a truck based SUV but drives like a car and gets the fuel economy closer to a car than a truck.

Oh I see, it's the gas rich end of the segments.

 

[stealthology]

So during Elon's presentation at the Dubai launch, when speaking of the Model 3, he says 'and hopefully that is going to get into production later this year'.

Hmm. Just thinking from a stock movement perspective with 2017 guidance coming up here in about a week.

 

[JBRR]

So during Elon's presentation at the Dubai launch, when speaking of the Model 3, he says 'and hopefully that is going to get into production later this year'.

Hmm. Just thinking from a stock movement perspective with 2017 guidance coming up here in about a week.

What else could he have said without disclosing new information?

 

[SteveG3]

nice. any idea what part of the day?

just saw this tweet from Baron funds...

Baron Funds‏@baronfunds
Tune in to @SquawkCNBC at 8am tomorrow morning and watch the live interview with Ron Baron

Baron Funds (@baronfunds) | Twitter