2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[gigglehertz]

Mark B.S. is feeling the heat. From his twitter feed:

"Respect the technicals but don't defer to them" @todd_harrison But yeah, if $TSLA breaks the old high I'll have to cut the position size."

 

[Ulmo]

Solar City is telling me this April installation regarding the proposed contract they just sent me for my new PowerWall 2's

I gave them some goal options, and Tesla wasn't trying to undersell me on quantity; I was thinking of a range of 1 to 4 depending on my goals, and they put the max quantity in the proposal like it was nothing (they assumed covering every goal). I think they're ready to move forward faster than I am! I wish I had this in my hands last year, but this is definitely where I thought it could be getting to, and this is a good sign for the future.

 

[FredTMC]

Mark B.S. is feeling the heat. From his twitter feed:

"Respect the technicals but don't defer to them" @todd_harrison But yeah, if $TSLA breaks the old high I'll have to cut the position size."

Yeah. Burn baby burn. He'll cut his position down from the 500 shares short he currently holds to something less. Like 300 shares.

He's soooo small potatos. I'm irritated every time he's on TV.

The citron guy has real money. Mark is nothing

 

[mrdoubleb]

Mark B.S. is feeling the heat. From his twitter feed:

"Respect the technicals but don't defer to them" @todd_harrison But yeah, if $TSLA breaks the old high I'll have to cut the position size."

Well, according to our "real time tracker", Norway has surpassed 1200 cars for Q1. ITanywhere.no shows 1202 cars (479 S and 723 X). This is actually the best quarter for the S since Q2 2016 - just saying for those crying doom and gloom for Model S. For X, this is actually better than last quarter, and is just 10% behind Q3 which was the first full quarter of European deliveries. Not bad at all.

So, if this ~20% increase Q on Q in Norway, translates to a 10%+ growth globally, this should be better than most analyst estimates I seem to recall. To put it another way, Norway is ~5% behind Q3 last year, which was one of Tesla's best quarters.

Building on a close of ~$280 today, early next week may just be the perfect storm. Good luck Mark B.S.!

PS: ITanywhere.no can be a little off sometimes, but I would say +-10 cars maybe, not more.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Very surprised no-one commented on my last post. Why is no-one talking about the debt ceiling or the fact that the GOP is likely to sign into law a plan to Audit the FED?

House Committee Passes Bill To "Audit The Fed" | Zero Hedge

The US Treasury has been issuing hundreds of billions in debt to pay off existing debt, to prevent the $20 trillion Ceiling from being breached.

Republicans Face More Tough Votes After Health-Care Whiff - The Atlantic

‘The budget from hell’ and raising the debt ceiling: Republicans are not ready for this

Is Trump slashing the budget everywhere in anticipation of a government shutdown and a planned threat to allow the USA to "default"? I think defense spending and some other areas are exempt from the ban on new debt if the debt ceiling is breached

If his comments about the ACA are any indication of how he thinks, maybe he plans to let the US default, attempt to blame it on the Democrats, and somehow publically attempt to tie a default to the ACA?

I don't see how comprehensive tax reform or a tax holiday will fix these problems, unless Trump is planning to attempt to leverage his "tremendous experience" with bankruptcies.

 

[racer26]

Very surprised no-one commented on my last post. Why is no-one talking about the debt ceiling or the fact that the GOP is likely to sign into law a plan to Audit the FED?

I suspect because of two things

1) Many of us are not American and therefore only care about US political happenings insofar as they impact our investments.
2) Few people actually understand the debt ceiling and what it means.

I've watched youtube videos and read explanations before, and I still don't really get it.

Countries built on fiat currencies (which is to say, basically everywhere), can essentially just print more money (up to a limit that's difficult to define or explain). The US debt ceiling problem is as simple as lawmakers passing a bill to raise the debt ceiling again, and then its not a problem anymore.

 

[austinEV]

I suspect because of two things

1) Many of us are not American and therefore only care about US political happenings insofar as they impact our investments.
2) Few people actually understand the debt ceiling and what it means.

I've watched youtube videos and read explanations before, and I still don't really get it.

Countries built on fiat currencies (which is to say, basically everywhere), can essentially just print more money (up to a limit that's difficult to define or explain). The US debt ceiling problem is as simple as lawmakers passing a bill to raise the debt ceiling again, and then its not a problem anymore.

The debt ceiling isn't a problem. It was only a problem in last years because Republican lawmakers could use it to hold the country hostage to get some crazy concession from the white house. They hold it now so there is no reason to not just increase it. Dems will probably not do the same hostage taking, so it is a non issue.

 

[Xorbit]

Countries built on fiat currencies (which is to say, basically everywhere), can essentially just print more money

Agreed. Though most of the fiat, debt-based currencies are created by banks (in the form of mortgages) rather than governments. Still, the effect is the same - it debases your buying power. To counter this, I buy bitcoin, which I think is the best equity-based currency. If TCP/IP allowed for P2P information transfer, bitcoin enables P2P value transfer. I think it will do for finance what Tesla will do for logistics and energy.

 

[racer26]

The debt ceiling isn't a problem. It was only a problem in last years because Republican lawmakers could use it to hold the country hostage to get some crazy concession from the white house. They hold it now so there is no reason to not just increase it. Dems will probably not do the same hostage taking, so it is a non issue.

I think its less that they won't, and more that for practical purposes they can't, since republicans control basically the whole kit and kaboodle. (Congress, Senate, and White House)

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

I suspect because of two things

1) Many of us are not American and therefore only care about US political happenings insofar as they impact our investments.
2) Few people actually understand the debt ceiling and what it means.

I've watched youtube videos and read explanations before, and I still don't really get it.

Countries built on fiat currencies (which is to say, basically everywhere), can essentially just print more money (up to a limit that's difficult to define or explain). The US debt ceiling problem is as simple as lawmakers passing a bill to raise the debt ceiling again, and then its not a problem anymore.

If US defaults, or US debt is downgraded again, it will impact all countries. The economies of almost every country are directly tied to the USA.

I agree it is complicated. That's why more people should be discussing it, to fully understand it.

The last time this happened every news station in the world was discussing it in great depth. Remember what happened when Greece, a country with~3-4 million people was close to defaulting?

This is why I'm surprised there isn't more discussion about this. Instead, everyone is focused on Trump's diversions, lawsuits, and scandals. Maybe this isn't a coincidence?

Many republicans were elected because of their objection to raising the debt ceiling, and/or their support of a "skinny government", reduced regulations, etc.

Zero Democrats will support a debt ceiling raise that has GOP focused strings attached. Many Republicans will vote against a raise to the debt ceiling, irrespective of what the bill says. It's ironic the GOP has been regularly using the words "too politicized" as justification for opposing sane and well thought out regulations/bills.

 

[SPadival]

Cherry on the cake.

Extra portion of SpaceX rocket recovered from launch, Musk says

 

[Starno]

So guys,
What do you think the trend is going to be for TSLA next week ?

Is it more likely to see a 280 breakout, or a dip to 270 levels ?

 

[Turing]

If US defaults, or US debt is downgraded again, it will impact all countries. The economies of almost every country are directly tied to the USA.

.

Republicans will never let this happen in a situation where they will be blamed as they control congress and the WH. A lot of the hysterics they pulled while Obama was president was due to the fact that they correctly realized that most of the voting public doesn't really pay attention to or have the capacity to understand who controls what chamber of congress and who should be blamed for what. They just see dysfunction in Washington, both sides yelling at each other, and mostly just associate that dysfunction with the party/person that controls the WH.

 

[kenliles]

Cherry on the cake.

Extra portion of SpaceX rocket recovered from launch, Musk says

Excellent post @SPadival
Was wondering if this was of interest to the forum.

We should not underestimate this significance. It relates to Elon's possible next sub goal and advances SpaceX even further ahead of potential competitors. He's currently considering whether the original idea to re-land second stage moves forward or is abandoned. I'm hoping he goes for it

Here's a short article with some specifics from Elon that includes some of this discussion as well as other interesting details
How SpaceX's Historic Rocket Re-Flight Boosts Elon Musk's Mars Plan

Elon tweets even today:
"Considering trying to bring upper stage back on Falcon Heavy demo flight for full reusability. Odds of success low, but maybe worth a shot."

"Falcon Heavy test flight currently scheduled for late summer"

This is the kind of extraordinary challenge he lives for;
The kind that motivates him and his team;
and creates exceptional cross channeling to Tesla

GO- X

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Reddit user "electricmusk" who was first to report notes from the non-public investor call posted some new information.
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-some suppliers (there are hundreds - this set is less than 5) are experiencing 50% price reductions on similar parts from S to 3

-the smallest battery might be below 50kwh still hitting 215 mile range [in my opinion, this would be massive for margins, positive for TSLA holders, but I am skeptical]

-a different supplier indicated their model 3 parts have been shipping 10 units/week, and will ramp to 100 units/week in April, 1000 units/week in June, and 5000/week in Sept

-Model 3 may be farther along than people give them credit and Model Y is more like early 2020 - I was under impression it was early 2019 - will be very curious regarding the "next week" comment Elon Musk to reportedly share more info about the Tesla Model Y ‘next week’

anecdotally, I spoke with the manager of a car dealership who told me "the world will never go electric" a year ago, and this week just said "you're right, the world is going electric"
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Notes • r/teslamotors

Couple of months before reveal, Feb 16, I`ve guestimated that base model will be likely around 50KWh with around 215 miles. This was at the time when most everyone was estimating much larger batteries. Considering progress Tesla has made since then, and efficiency gains with Model S, I`d think 45-50KWh battery is still likely to be base battery. And it may be called 45, for marketing reasons, to allow model differentiation, while it`s actually 48KWh.
Oh, funny, I`ve forgotten this, but I`ve guessed that performance model would come a year later. I did think he would start from the most expensive non-P model though. Link is here:
Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

 

[Intl Professor]

GO- X

First time I've ever heard of a steerable parachute without a human bean guiding it (unless it was remotely done by that bean?).

 

[dennis]

Solar City is telling me this April installation regarding the proposed contract they just sent me for my new PowerWall 2's

I gave them some goal options, and Tesla wasn't trying to undersell me on quantity; I was thinking of a range of 1 to 4 depending on my goals, and they put the max quantity in the proposal like it was nothing (they assumed covering every goal). I think they're ready to move forward faster than I am! I wish I had this in my hands last year, but this is definitely where I thought it could be getting to, and this is a good sign for the future.

I had my site visit by SolarCity this week for the 2 Powerwalls I reserved. I was told to expect a proposal within 2 weeks and that installations are being scheduled about 30 days out. This is happening!

 

[jhm]

Cherry on the cake.

Extra portion of SpaceX rocket recovered from launch, Musk says

 

[SunCatcher]

Autonomous Nissan Leaf / Fully Charged

In case you missed it. Really worth a watch.

 

[Quesder]

Autonomous Nissan Leaf / Fully Charged

In case you missed it. Really worth a watch.

oh man it is so good. What should we do? Buy Leaf and Nissan stock shares?