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Yes, yes, and absolutely yes about the debt ceiling being a big deal. I don't know if the US will default. It concerns me that no-one is asking that question. It's also possible that some unpredictable event will happen in the next few months.
The US government has already quietly implemented "extraordinary measures".
Is it a coincidence Trump is shrinking the US Government everywhere (including funding for programs that are a minuscule percent of the US budget?
I'm extremely confused how Trump is legally allowed to continue pushing the secret service to its breaking point and spend an insane amount of government money to subsidize his lifestyle CHOICES at a time when the US government is running low on money.
Trump could give free good apartments/houses and sufficient living expenses to every homeless person in the USA, and free healthcare to millions with all of the government money being spent on himself.
In some countries, its a serious crime for government representative at any level to waste such an insane amount of public money.
jhm
Well-Known Member
This week will boast the top 5 highest closing prices ever, so long as we close above $286.04.
So not only have see seen a new ATH, but we appear to remain solidly at a new peak. I think $300 will become the new $200.
So not only have see seen a new ATH, but we appear to remain solidly at a new peak. I think $300 will become the new $200.
Welcome to the ignore list.
Yes, yes, and absolutely yes about the debt ceiling being a big deal. I don't know if the US will default. It concerns me that no-one is asking that question. It's also possible that some unpredictable event will happen in the next few months.
The US government has already quietly implemented "extraordinary measures".
Is it a coincidence Trump is shrinking the US Government everywhere (including funding for programs that are a minuscule percent of the US budget?
I'm extremely confused how Trump is legally allowed to continue pushing the secret service to its breaking point and spend an insane amount of government money to subsidize his lifestyle CHOICES at a time when the US government is running low on money.
Trump could give free good apartments/houses and sufficient living expenses to every homeless person in the USA, and free healthcare to millions with all of the government money being spent on himself.
In some countries, its a serious crime for government representative at any level to waste such an insane amount of public money.
You are beating a drum here and I cannot figure out why. I despise Trump, and there are a LOT of macro concerns but this is like #101 on my top 100 things to be worried about in a Trump admin. The debt ceiling has historically not been a problem. For 100 years, congress just passed a resolution to increase it. It was only a problem during the Obama Admin because the repubs could turn it into a political football, threatening to send the US into default if they didn't get their way on something, budget cuts was the main one. Now they control both houses of congress and the White house. There is zero reason to expect ransom. And if they want to cut the budget.... they just can. And Are. So they just need to bother to pass the bill, and assuming they still have the knowledge to pass a bill with bi-partison support, it will happen.
Debt ceiling "X" date to hit in October or November
While we have decent capex guidance, Tesla's been super vague about SG&A and R&D. Which is probably totally reasonable since I don't think they have a solid grasp on where those are going either. I do remember a comment some time back that it "wasn't going to double" if that helps.
All right, super helpful. That was my guess but I had very little to back it up, since it's so dependent on how their partnership deals are structured, which is confidential information. In that case SolarCity *will* be showing profits every quarter. Which is good.
Thanks!
Depends on the impact of R&D, restructuring costs, and SG&A growth.
If I were to guess? I'd say not in Q1. But I could be wrong. Decent chance they will.
If I were to guess further? I'd say not in Q2, but I'm not nearly as certain of that. I'd say 50/50 odds.
If I were to guess even further? I'd say not in Q3 because Model 3 ramp-up costs will swamp it, but I'm even less certain of that, and I sure wouldn't bet against it.
In Q4? Well, they might show a loss if R&D and SG&A ramp up massively, but I'm expecting them to show a profit.
Thing is they're teetering around breakeven, so predicting loss vs. profit is hard. What I can predict is that they will do way better than consensus analyst estimates, where the mean estimate is actually *worse* than the Q4 results, which is just not going to happen.
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Ah, a coreligionist! Hail Eris!
Remember who you're talking about. Many republicans would gladly attempt to attach some insane policies to a debt ceiling raise , even if it caused harm to millions of people. That's exactly what happened the last time, and a deal was reached in the last
Republicans Want to Hold the Debt Ceiling Hostage Without Looking Insane. Good Luck With That.
Many Republicans are very opposed to raising the debt ceiling, and would only agree to raise it as a quid pro quo, and would have no qualms demanding the impossible.
If the debt ceiling isn't raised and the US economy stops functioning, these same people would pound the table blaming it on the Democrats or republicans who are "too far to the left", as an attempt at a long term "power play" (strategy).
Oh, no. What's a poor Moderator to do now?
I think I'll go eat a hot dog.
I think I'll go eat a hot dog.
My wife once ate dog as a child in her native Thailand. But she won't eat beef. Buddha's father was reincarnated as a cow, you know. After paying our taxes and in response to the recent airstrike in Syria: "Now there is blood on my hands," she said.
Generally speaking the market close was better than I expected, albeit with modest volumes. After all it is Friday. I shall partake of a Scottish product and feel good about the week as a TSLA investor . Otherwise there really is nothing to celebrate, politically anyway.
I love a good haggis too. Enjoy sir.
With all due respect, do you understand that there is a difference between the actual spending (budget) and the debt ceiling? You are right that many republicans are against spending, even if it means hurting people, and they can hurt all the people they like by slashing the budget. But not raising the debt ceiling just hurts Wall Street, which as far as I can tell is their core constituency. So expect 1) Reduced budget spending, particularly on social safety net items, and 2) the debt ceiling to be raised in good order.
As a *human being* there is risk here. As an *investor* much less so.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Solar + Tesla battery storage offered in new-build Queensland homes
Nice to see Powerwall 2 become standard on new homes down under. Now if we could get some solar roofs down there too, that would be super.
Nice to see Powerwall 2 become standard on new homes down under. Now if we could get some solar roofs down there too, that would be super.
@luvb2b i took a quick stab at trying to back into the numbers using the 2016 10-K, the 4Q2016 shareholder letter and the 2016 Q3 10-Q; i was a little surprised at the numbers i ended up with:
$47.3 million in energy storage revenue
$60.7 million in energy storage cost of revenue
$13.4 million gross loss
I am happy to email you the quick and dirty spreadsheet i used to populate the numbers on this if you would like to check my work -- i did this really quick and it could probably use another set of eyes. PM me if you'd like to see the spreadsheet.
Interestingly enough, the 4Q2016 shareholder does comment that gross margin was lower than planned due to scaling production capacity in Q4 for energy storage products to accommodate future growth.
Another comment -- for the nine months ended 9/30/16, energy storage revenue and cost of revenue was as follows:
$50.0 million in energy storage revenue
$50.5 million in energy storage cost of revenue
$0.5 million gross loss
Also, this spreadsheet has a solid listing of energy projects; could be helpful in trying to get at the revenue numbers
hope this helps,
surfside
$47.3 million in energy storage revenue
$60.7 million in energy storage cost of revenue
$13.4 million gross loss
I am happy to email you the quick and dirty spreadsheet i used to populate the numbers on this if you would like to check my work -- i did this really quick and it could probably use another set of eyes. PM me if you'd like to see the spreadsheet.
Interestingly enough, the 4Q2016 shareholder does comment that gross margin was lower than planned due to scaling production capacity in Q4 for energy storage products to accommodate future growth.
Another comment -- for the nine months ended 9/30/16, energy storage revenue and cost of revenue was as follows:
$50.0 million in energy storage revenue
$50.5 million in energy storage cost of revenue
$0.5 million gross loss
Also, this spreadsheet has a solid listing of energy projects; could be helpful in trying to get at the revenue numbers
hope this helps,
surfside
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thank you. helps a lot. i had put together the same thing from the 10k not having seen anything else. i thoroughly appreciate your validating that work.
the implications to me are 1. that gross margins have a lot of room to go higher as gigafactory output scales. 2. q4 revenue was almost equal to first 3 quarters combined, which is fantastic growth.
the implications to me are 1. that gross margins have a lot of room to go higher as gigafactory output scales. 2. q4 revenue was almost equal to first 3 quarters combined, which is fantastic growth.
you're welcome. another thing worth remembering is the comment in the 4Q 2016 letter that long term they expect energy storage (potentially inclusive of the solar business - it isn't clear from the letter) margins to be similar to automotive gross margins.
surfside
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