2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[racer26]

...I just lightbulbed on what exactly Elon meant in his tweet earlier.

Model 3's big pack is expected to be 75kWh.

Elon is talking about a compelling upgrade to old 60s in the form of some way to stick what is basically an off-the-shelf Model 3 pack into an S chassis.

 

[Dennisj00]

Surprise: 70% Of Millenials Do Not Want Electric Vehicles

What a surprise! They're not buying any car that their parents won't buy them since most are still living at home!

 

[WhiskeySauer]

1. Tesla said "later this year" not "at the end of last year" as you assume.
2. I never said Tesla took a year to break ground. In fact, from location announcement to Model 3 ramp-up is set to be 3 years vs. 5 years as you assume.
3. Even assuming Giga capacity at 1.5m, four gigafactories would procude 6m cars/year, and I assumed 4m/year by 2020. Fremont (not Freemont btw) is NOT capped at current rate; in fact Elon said they can achieve 20x production rate at Fremont.

Anyway. Good luck!

1) Fair enough. I'm not sure how this difference is significant, but it could be.
2) No... I assumed 5 years from announcement to full rate production... which is a lot different than saying how long it would take to go from location announcement to Model 3 "ramp-up". "Ramp-up" is not even a quantifiable metric. At what production rate would the Model 3 even enter and leave the "ramp up" phase?
3) Elon's exact words from that gigafactory are: "I'm confident we can get to at least one meter per second. So, a 20-fold increase." He isn't talking about what can happen at Fremont. He's giving a general estimation on what he thinks is the fastest production rate that could be achieved by the alien dreadnaught once they finish optimizing the machine that builds the machine. Elon has also gone on record multiple times that GF/Fremont is only alien dreadnaught 0.5 and that the high production volumes would occur in future gigafactories.

 

[SPadival]

Slight OT: Going off the fact that the base Model S now has an all glass roof as standard, I can now speculate that M3 base model will have the same. The reasoning behind this is they had to make it standard on the MS because it is standard on the more affordable, lower priced M3. I guess the all steel roof models will now become collector's item.

 

[jesselivenomore]

Surprise: 70% Of Millenials Do Not Want Electric Vehicles

Surprise: 30% of Millenials have heard of Tesla.

 

[jhm]

Slight OT: Going off the fact that the base Model S now has an all glass roof as standard, I can now speculate that M3 base model will have the same. The reasoning behind this is they had to make it standard on the MS because it is standard on the more affordable, lower priced M3. I guess the all steel roof models will now become collector's item.

Solid roof with nosecone, they don't make 'em like that anymore, Tesla classic!

 

[WhiskeySauer]

1. Tesla said "later this year" not "at the end of last year" as you assume.
2. I never said Tesla took a year to break ground. In fact, from location announcement to Model 3 ramp-up is set to be 3 years vs. 5 years as you assume.
3. Even assuming Giga capacity at 1.5m, four gigafactories would procude 6m cars/year, and I assumed 4m/year by 2020. Fremont (not Freemont btw) is NOT capped at current rate; in fact Elon said they can achieve 20x production rate at Fremont.

Anyway. Good luck!

Even if we give you the benefit of the doubt and assume he was talking explicitly about Fremont... That interview is from Sept 2016 when TSLA's production rate had just crossed an average ~75K cars/year. And guess what 20 times $75K/year is?

 

[dirtyofries]

KOLO8 on Twitter

#BREAKING: Hazmat crews responding to chemical spill at @TeslaMotors Gigafactory

Update:
Storey County Sheriff Gerald Antinoro confirms a hazardous materials crew is dealing with a reported chemical spill Monday afternoon at the Tesla Gigafactory at the Tahoe Reno Industrial Center.

Joe Curtis with the county says the spill is connected to the HVAC system. Several people have reported feeling sick, but it's not clear whether anyone has to be taken to a hospital, though there are ambulances on scene.

One portion of the factory has been evacuated as a precaution.


Edit: A disagree? Really?

 

[elasalle]

Slight OT: Going off the fact that the base Model S now has an all glass roof as standard, I can now speculate that M3 base model will have the same. The reasoning behind this is they had to make it standard on the MS because it is standard on the more affordable, lower priced M3. I guess the all steel roof models will now become collector's item.

Read somewhere(a while back), the glass roof gives more space for the robots to work on the interior stuff.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

1) Fair enough. I'm not sure how this difference is significant, but it could be.
2) No... I assumed 5 years from announcement to full rate production... which is a lot different than saying how long it would take to go from location announcement to Model 3 "ramp-up". "Ramp-up" is not even a quantifiable metric. At what production rate would the Model 3 even enter and leave the "ramp up" phase?
3) Elon's exact words from that gigafactory are: "I'm confident we can get to at least one meter per second. So, a 20-fold increase." He isn't talking about what can happen at Fremont. He's giving a general estimation on what he thinks is the fastest production rate that could be achieved by the alien dreadnaught once they finish optimizing the machine that builds the machine. Elon has also gone on record multiple times that GF/Fremont is only alien dreadnaught 0.5 and that the high production volumes would occur in future gigafactories.

Fremont is asembly. The quote you mentioned at the end is regarding gigafactory which is battery. Two different things.

My best understanding based on latest quotes/estimates: gigafactories can produce battery packs to supply 1.5m/year cars and Fremont can assemble 2m/year cars.

So 4m cars/year by 2020 will not be a problem if Tesla can bring two more gigafactories to full production by then but will need one more assembly plant.

Looking at how much this company has achieved in the last three years, I'm confident this is one of the possible outcomes, and in my opinion, the most likely outcome.

 

[DurandalAI]

Ummm, no. The 60kwh and 75kwh cars have the same physical 75kwh pack. This was just removal of a software limit. Essentially free money or an opportunity cost (depending on your views of how likely the owner was to upgrade at the previous $8500 price).

You cannot infer battery costs from this change.

Edit: crap didn't see ggr's response.

Yet, the estimates provided elsewhere are that Tesla is likely paying $130/kWh for its batteries around now. Others have mentioned that in this thread and elswhere, but as always, it's merely speculation...
Tesla is now claiming 35% battery cost reduction at ‘Gigafactory 1’ – hinting at breakthrough cost below $125/kWh

My guess that is that cost, even though it's just a software unlock, is actually pretty close to what Tesla pays for the cells currently, and that by the end of this year, the costs will be under $120/kWh for the new cell format.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Even if we give you the benefit of the doubt and assume he was talking explicitly about Fremont... That interview is from Sept 2016 when TSLA's production rate had just crossed an average ~75K cars/year. And guess what 20 times $75K/year is?

Regardless, the stock is currently priced for 500,000 cars in 2020, so even if I'm wrong by 6x, the stock is undervalued.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Yet, the estimates provided elsewhere are that Tesla is likely paying $130/kWh for its batteries around now. Others have mentioned that in this thread and elswhere, but as always, it's merely speculation...
Tesla is now claiming 35% battery cost reduction at ‘Gigafactory 1’ – hinting at breakthrough cost below $125/kWh

My guess that is that cost, even though it's just a software unlock, is actually pretty close to what Tesla pays for the cells currently, and that by the end of this year, the costs will be under $120/kWh for the new cell format.

Does this number matter anymore? Isn't it already way below the $180/kWh mark which I thought was the ice-equivalent cost mark? So from here on, Tesla has the lowest cost per kWh for batteries and needs to ramp up as quickly as it possibly can to meet demand.

 

[AcesDealt]

How does Apple not buy Tesla? It's about as close a match of needs as you get.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

How does Apple not buy Tesla? It's about as close a match of needs as you get.

It's very possible Apple already owns a stake in Tesla. It wouldn't necessarily be material and therefore require a disclosure due to how much Apple makes and how much cash Apple has.

It would be crazy for Apple to buy Tesla. It would make a lot more sense for Apple to invest in Tesla factories or in Tesla's supply chain.

 

[Ameliorate]

 

[Crowded Mind]

View attachment 223286

 

[schonelucht]

Wow. That reply changes a lot of suppositions on my end. Allowing older cars to upgrade their battery is a huge positive sign of confidence in not needing additional upsells! We will still need to see how it will turn out in practice. For example, will it be with 18650's or a new pack design based on Gigafactory product? And of course the price! But the mere possibility is an exceptional change in direction. Good work there. Also mitigates price devaluation of existing stock of cars due to today's price decrease.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

How does Apple not buy Tesla? It's about as close a match of needs as you get.

I answered your question a year ago: Apple Will Never Buy Netflix Or Tesla - Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) | Seeking Alpha

 

[mmd]

Solid roof with nosecone, they don't make 'em like that anymore, Tesla classic!

People have mixed opinion about the missing solid roof. Is the glass roof as good as solid roof under hot sun?
No more solid painted roof (Glasses or Sunroof)

Wow. That reply changes a lot of suppositions on my end. Allowing older cars to upgrade their battery is a huge positive sign of confidence in not needing additional upsells! We will still need to see how it will turn out in practice. For example, will it be with 18650's or a new pack design based on Gigafactory product? And of course the price! But the mere possibility is an exceptional change in direction. Good work there. Also mitigates price devaluation of existing stock of cars due to today's price decrease.

That tweet should be taken with a huge grain of salt. Elon replying "Yes" to the question of "hardware upgrading 2013 S60 to S75 for $2k" is really puzzling. Forget about the cost of the new 75 kWh battery. $2k barely covers just the labor charges.
Let's wait and see what the catch is here. Like, making the upgrade cost $2k for 15 seconds technically makes the reply correct. Then, the cost of upgrade jumps to $20K and dances between $15K to $20k.
Or something like "Upgrade your 2013 Model S 60 to a new S75 battery pack for only $2k! Just pay $1/mile driven on the old battery pack."

I'm still curious how many people have upgraded their roadster battery packs. The price tag was much higher though ($20k?).