2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Isn't it convenient how every pundit and journalist in the world is thrilled to flood the news feed with "Tesla issues recall" (Ignoring the word "Proactive"), but only a few people wrote articles about "Tesla owner walks away unscathed after driving his Model S off a 400 foot cliff"?

 

[Mkorpal]

Funny story...

I took my grandma's 2007 Toyota Yaris to the service center today due to the Takata airbag recalls - appointment was scheduled 3 weeks ago, little did I know we'll have a Tesla recall today.

After I first called them 3 weeks back to agree on the date, the guy called me back later that day, saying that based on the VIN number, the car is involved in another recall (cross beam) so the repair will take 3 hours.

So I took the car to them this morning, picked it up after work, and was surprised to see 3 items on the (zero amount due) bill. Oh yeah.. turns out the car is involved in a 3rd recall as well (something about greasing the front electric window microswitch ?).

Now, mind you, this wasn't even the first time for this car - as we had to take it back once already due to the stuck accelerator pedal recall, not to mention both rear shock absorbers needed to be replaced a few weeks after the original delivery due to a manufacturing issue (both were completely broken and knocking against the housing...)

So that's 4 recalls and 1 serious manufacturing defect for you on one of the most popular models of the world's No1. car manufacturer.

This is what gets me when people freak out that Tesla may or may not run a testing program on the Model 3 that may or may not be less thorough than the major manufacturers testing programs. How many recalls happen even with those testing programs.

 

[Turing]

Isn't it convenient how every pundit and journalist in the world is thrilled to flood the news feed with "Tesla issues recall" (Ignoring the word "Proactive"), but only a few people wrote articles about "Tesla owner walks away unscathed after driving his Model S off a 400 foot cliff"?

Like when spilling a few dozen gallons of cleaning solution at the gigafactory where no one was hurt, made Reuters business top stories with scary headlines "Chemical spill at Tesla". Ridiculous.

 

[Mike Smith]

Tesla launches new Powerwall and solar integration in the ‘Tesla Mobile app’

There should be lots of positive talk about TE on the earnings call.

 

[kenliles]

the cnbc spot the anchor kept trying to drag the guest expert to saying it was a big deal - even though he kept repeating it was a nonevent

Actually that's the fake real news.
The real fake news is outright lies.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

As the April 28th deadline approaches, the GOP is promising there won't be a government shutdown or default. The media is beginning to discuss this, but appears to believe the GOP has a plan for comprehensive tax reform and raising the debt ceiling. I'm far from convinced. Did Fox really say the GOP plans to give themselves one week to put together a deal? ONE WHOLE WEEK? Maybe instead of taking a big vacation they should have spent the past few weeks working on a viable plan!

Congress grappling with shutdown threat as funding deadline zooms into view

Trump's next big economic test could turn into a crisis

https://www.usnews.com/opinion/thom...whos-to-blame-if-theres-a-government-shutdown

 

[moe.salih]

Neuralink and the Brain's Magical Future - Wait But Why

 

[adiggs]

Yes, but apparently this is 'one of the worst auto blunders of all time'.

This article apparently comes from the school of thought that goes something like this:
- serial killers are bad
- Charles Manson was a serial killer, and his gender was male
- where does @adiggs rank
-
- where do where Charles Manson is a man - where does

Elon - we want to buy more shares. Maybe there's some little nut or gear that could possibly be a problem?
-Tencent

I'm still laughing.

Or maybe we just edit that a little bit:
Elon - we want to buy more shares. Maybe there's some little nut or gear that could possibly be a problem?
-TMC Investor's Forum

 

[Intl Professor]

So that's 4 recalls and 1 serious manufacturing defect for you on one of the most popular models of the world's No1. car manufacturer.

With our 2001 Lexus LS430 we had a problem with the steering column rubbing against something and making a noise whenever it was indexing. Fixed two or three times over a two year period. The last time involved a replacement as it was defective in some way. No recall notice was issued! Just the normal way of doing business with a luxury car. That model and make tied with Prius for most reliable of all cars that year by Consumer Reports. N of one but just saying....

 

[brian45011]

Proxy filed Definitive Proxy Statement

No new directors?

 

[AlMc]

Proxy filed Definitive Proxy Statement

No new directors?

Well, if they are taking suggestions I would be fine with you, DaveT, Luv, Ken, Surfside, esk or Neroden.

 

[jhm]

Is there any analysis on how Elon/Tesla may choose to breakdown battery capacity between Auto vs Energy? One factor I can think of, according to their plan to reduce carbon emission, is which would get the most bang for the buck in terms of removing carbon dioxide production.

According to this, EV emits 0.23kg less CO2 per mile vs gasoline car. A 85kwh MS, at 12000 mi/yr, 85kwh of battery saves you 2,760kg of CO2.

According to this, on average electricity sources produce 1.22lb (0.55kg) of CO2 per kwh of power generated, peakers probably produce a lot more CO2 per kwh. If the same 85kwh battery is put to energy storage and displaces peakers, and if it is cycled once per day, it eliminates the need to generate 85kwh of electricity per day, we get 0.55 * 85 * 365 = 17,063kg of CO2.

So it seems that battery putting into TE would drastically be more efficient in cleaning up CO2 than TA. My question then is, how will this effect long term Gigafactory allocation to TE vs TA?

The long term allocation across all battery makers will depend on how many GWh are need to power all motor vehcles versus how many GWh are needed for zero emissions power generation and distribution. My own speculation into this suggests the world will need about 10TWh/year for vehicles and 3 TWh/year for grids. So that's a long term view. In the short run, however, it depends on how quickly these respective markets will grow.

 

[mmd]

Tesla Workers File Charges With National Labor Board as Battle With Elon Musk Intensifies – Capital & Main

Workers at Tesla’s Fremont, California electric car factory have filed a unfair labor practice charge with the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB), accusing the company of illegal surveillance, coercion, intimidation and prevention of worker communications. The employees, who have been attempting to organize the approximately 7,000 workers at the plant through the United Auto Workers, claim that Tesla violated multiple sections of the National Labor Relations Act, which protects the right to unionize.
..
“This confidentiality agreement is clearly in violation of the Wagner Act and recent NLRB rulings,” said labor historian Nelson Lichtenstein of the University of California, Santa Barbara.

 

[AudubonB]

Moderator Note:

I have created a platform for discussing Neuralink; at present it sits in the Off Topic sector. Presumably it will some day have its own "anchored" site. Please contribute your thoughts there: The Neuralink Master Thread

 

[mmd]

The long term allocation across all battery makers will depend on how many GWh are need to power all motor vehcles versus how many GWh are needed for zero emissions power generation and distribution. My own speculation into this suggests the world will need about 10TWh/year for vehicles and 3 TWh/year for grids. So that's a long term view. In the short run, however, it depends on how quickly these respective markets will grow.

The world could wait for 200 Gigafactories for 10 TWh/year (100 years?) to begin the transition. Or it could churn out hybrids like bullets from machine gun, if it thinks global warming is important.

Toyota Corolla MPG (Fuel Consumption)
Toyota Corolla: 168g/km.
Toyota Prius hybrid: 70g/km
1 100 KWh battery pack of Tesla Model S 100 => 67 Toyota Prius => 58% of 168g/km * 67 CO2 eliminated => Emissions from 39 cars gone.

 

[dc_h]

Reading through the TSLA 2016 10-K, this passage stood out to me;

"Gigafactory 1 is being built in phases so that Tesla, Panasonic, and other partners can begin manufacturing immediately inside the finished sections and continue to expand thereafter. Gigafactory 1 is currently expected to attain full production capacity by 2020, which is anticipated to be sufficient for the production of approximately 500,000 vehicles annually as well as for the production of our energy storage products."

This doesn't rhyme with how I have understood their 2020 guidance.
Should I chalk this up to a poorly written 10-K?

tsla-10k_20161231.htm

I'm not sure if anyone responded to your post, but this is an interesting find. GF1 is Nevada. The implication that they plan on making 500,000 cars in Sparks, in addition to output from Fremont, where they intend to double the plant size is a bit interesting. known capex plans, and plans in place for at least 1mm cars a year by 2020. This is the sort of info TT007 and ValueAnalyst should be getting excited about. Only one other GF by 2020 and they could be making close to 2mm annualized by the end of 2020.

Hope these Grohman guys start to realize how busy they are going to be for the next 10 years.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

watching various media coverage on this recall - cnbc and street.com for example - i am starting to feel i understand why there are so many complaints about fake news. the cnbc spot the anchor kept trying to drag the guest expert to saying it was a big deal - even though he kept repeating it was a nonevent.

Following Tesla news manicly is exactly what lead me to distrust big news sources that I'd previously trusted. There was clearly a financial agenda (pro or con) behind 95% of the Tesla stories in Google news. After looking at other companies I found the same in the coverage of Apple and other hot stocks.

Now I just expect it.

 

[neroden]

Sorry this is more of an example of worst "journalism" of all time, if it can be called journalism.

The term is "journamalism"
Urban Dictionary: journamalism

 

[neroden]

@Turing: Doubt it but it is an interesting theory. I am with 'luv' on this: I think we are stuck in the 300-307 range till ER. I am not complaining because 2-3 weeks ago I did not think we would see $300 till the '3' *on time* launch.

Given that "till ER" is less than two weeks... and I also had the same view as you... yeah, not really complaining.

 

[jhm]

If the dummy tiles are truly cheaper then slate or tradition materials, why wouldn't they make non-solar roofs out of it today? I think Elon noted something to the effect that he didnt understand why it had never been done because glass is such a durable, inexpensive material and is also cheaper to work with then other materials. Many roofs are a form of fiberglass and asphalt so glass is not such a foreign idea for a roofing material.

OMG, it's not enough for Elon to go after gasoline with EV car, diesel with EV trucks, jet fuel with hyperloop, but he wants to rid the world of asphalt with glass shingles. I guess he could take a tip from the French and pave roads with glass solar tiles.

The whole damn barrel, Elon, the whole damn barrel.