ValueAnalyst
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Thanks for posting this. I won't go into much detail but a few things I would challenge you on:
1) Why cap S/X units at 125k/year since Model 3 and full autonomy will soon multiply Tesla's brand awareness across the world and "competitors" have not even started building their first gigafactories (i.e. zero competition for another 3-5 years). Model S/X have achieved current level of units with limited supercharger and service center networks, both of which are growing. Also note that Supercharger v3 speed will bring in a lot more customers to Tesla.
2) I think you may want to lower your ASPs for outer years. Recent Model S price drop shows Elon is not kidding about accelerating the world's transition to sustainable energy to as close as he can get it to the speed of light. On a side note - I'm curious to see if BMW/Mercedes will try to match it. I doubt that they will or can, which means further market share erosion for them. I wouldn't be surprised if Model S captures more than 40% of luxury sedan market in the US in 2H17 (which brings me back my point #1 above). In addition, with the recent large price drop Model S will quickly start eating into 5-series and C-class. I think your 125k/year estimate for Model S/X will prove very conservative. I think 150-175k/year combined is likely in 2018 and beyond.
3) Generally speaking, I think your automotive unit estimates are too conservative. Just to put it in perspective: you're projecting 1.4 million units in 2022, I'm projecting 4 million in 2020. Tesla is aiming to achieve 1.0-1.5 million cars/year (likely more since the Gigafactory max capacity estimate seems to multiply ever year like a family of rodents) with just Gigafactory 1. What do you think they'll do with "Gigafactories 3, 4, and possibly 5" that they just announced? Let them sit there and look pretty?
4) I would start Powerpack pricing at Rive's recent estimate of $400-600 (so say $500) and reduce it by the same 5-10% per year as you did. Note that the $250/kWh price Elon gave to Australians is just at the pack level. Rive's price includes inverters etc. so it's more complete for modeling purposes. Also - I think 4GWh for 2017 too aggressive as the company will be very busy with the Model 3, but your growth rate assumption of ~100% per year is too conservative. I'm assuming 2GWh for 2017, but 3x growth per year for the next five years. Remember: stationary battery business is expected to grow "several times faster" than the auto business, and auto business will have grown ~80-100% CAGR if Tesla achieves 500k guidance for 2018.
5) I would bring Powerwall unit projections closer to Model 3/Y units as most people who buy either of those cars will likely buy at least one and maybe two Powerwall(s), but I don't know how Tesla will meet this demand. I guess this explains the need to build three more Gigafactories.
6) I think 2018 revenue multiple will be higher but I agree with your estimates for outer years.
Thanks for the Tesla Energy project tab. Very useful and clearly shows the "superexponential" growth rate that Elon and JB have referenced a few times.
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