2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[trils0n]

Still consider this battery warranty a shocker. It's like they have nowhere near the level of confidence in the 3 battery that they have in the S/X battery. Why?

Perhaps accounting for "unlimited" mile warranty claims on the most expensive component of 400k cars was a little daunting.

 

[schonelucht]

If Elon confirmed that they had over 500k reservations, and that if you order a 3 now, you will get it around the end of next year. Doesn't that imply that they are planning on hitting 10k a week much earlier in 2018 than is generally assumed? I haven't modeled it out or anything, but my wild guess is they would have to hit 10k/week around the end of Q1 to be able to hit over 500k cumulative by the end of 2018. Am I missing something?

Yes, overseas deliveries will only begin late 2018. So Tesla only needs to fulfil US demand by end of year to meet Elon's prediction. Guessing: 300k?

 

[FredTMC]

Just wanted to note that the long range version has a longer battery warranty (125k versus 100k miles) and a higher speed charger (32A versus 40A) and likely a bigger inverter (5.1 sec 0-60 versus 5.6).

Regarding the battery 100k mile coverage, I can pretty much say without any doubt, that if your battery fails at 110k miles or more, Tesla will ABSOLUTELY replace the battery for free. They don't want ANY negative press about batteries failing.

The warrenty coverage ending at 100K miles is simply about limiting their financial requirements for carrying big accounting risk exposure. That's all

In general, these batteries will last for many hundreds of thousands of miles

My MS has 88k. I'm not concerned about the battery. Not even a little bit

 

[Krugerrand]

I think it's fair to say Tesla's customers are primarily male. Did anyone see any females in the crowd?

Also, how is it only 2,000 people watching the webcast?!

The crowd on the 'floor' were employees. The crowd in the 'bleacher' were invited guests like those here from the forum et al...

 

[Yggdrasill]

Are Europeans happy with the width at 72.8"?

4.5 " or 11.43 cm narrower than the Model S. I was guessing 3" narrower.

It seems a big gripe from Europeans was that Tesla vehicles were just too wide for European roads.

A 2017 BMW 3 Series is 71.3" and a 2017 BMW 5 Series is 73.5".

Width should be fine, but Norway hasn't had much against the size of the Model S, anyway.

The two biggest negatives from the Norwegian view is:

- International deliveries start "late 2018".
- Nothing about tow bar. (Maybe coming in 2018?)

 

[techmaven]

If Elon confirmed that they had over 500k reservations, and that if you order a 3 now, you will get it around the end of next year. Doesn't that imply that they are planning on hitting 10k a week much earlier in 2018 than is generally assumed? I haven't modeled it out or anything, but my wild guess is they would have to hit 10k/week around the end of Q1 to be able to hit over 500k cumulative by the end of 2018. Am I missing something?

From: Stand and Deliver: Elon Musk Hands Off First Tesla Model 3 Production Cars

“I know I’m sandbagging a lot,” Musk said. “But we inherit force majeure risk from everywhere else in the world: floods, fires, tornadoes, sinking ships—you name it. If there’s anything that interrupts the supply chain before we accumulate enough parts, that will interrupt the production ramp.”

 

[techmaven]

Regarding the battery 100k mile coverage, I can pretty much say without any doubt, that if your battery fails at 110k miles or more, Tesla will ABSOLUTELY replace the battery for free. They don't want ANY negative press about batteries failing.

The warrenty coverage ending at 100K miles is simply about limiting their financial requirements for carrying big accounting risk exposure. That's all

In general, these batteries will last for many hundreds of thousands of miles

My MS has 88k. I'm not concerned about the battery. Not even a little bit

True... but in terms of margin looking at the $9k for the long range version, one has to assign COGS to these items.

 

[FutureTSLACEO]

The reputation of these car companies (from the article) is just going downhill from now on. The Detroit "big" car companies are also really behind.
Top German Automakers Sued in U.S. Over Two-Decade ‘Cartel’

This model 3 unveil just proved to the world that Tesla is the "world of the art" car/tech/utility/transportation company.

The reputation of Tesla in delivering the most innovative, consumer friendly, and environmentally conscientious products is top notched. It is phenomenal to witness how Tesla has pushed so many boundaries, from enabling us to buy cars online, creating a future of FSD, to electrification of not only the entire auto industry but the rest of the industries.

I just drove the Tesla Model 3, and it changes everything — the entire world will want this car

The entire world will indeed want this car and all products of Tesla. What more can I say, in Elon and Co., I trust.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

Are Europeans happy with the width at 72.8"?

4.5 " or 11.43 cm narrower than the Model S. I was guessing 3" narrower.

It seems a big gripe from Europeans was that Tesla vehicles were just too wide for European roads.

A 2017 BMW 3 Series is 71.3" and a 2017 BMW 5 Series is 73.5".

Hmm, it's 1849 compared with 1832 for VW Passat. It'll be tight in my parking space (the neighbor is already breaking my non-folding side mirrors forward in protest) Perhaps summon is available for M3?

 

[Out4aDuck]

Drag coefficient is 0.23. Must be very difficult to get to 0.21 without getting rid of the side mirrors.

The EV-1 had a drag coefficient of 0.19. If GM did it, it could not have been too hard.

 

[Krugerrand]

Everything I'm reading now is VERY positive on the Model 3 and with a good amount of details. It sounds like a homerun. I'm just scratching my head at the event.

As I said in another thread, the event wasn't for 'you', it was for the employees.

 

[schonelucht]

Just wanted to note that the long range version has a longer battery warranty (125k versus 100k miles) and a higher speed charger (32A versus 40A) and likely a bigger inverter (5.1 sec 0-60 versus 5.6).

Good points. May save 1-2% on GM for the base model. Although I guess the performance increase is more a function of max discharge rate for these cars than sized by the inverter. I don't think price delta there will be significant enough to offset production complication by having many more models.

 

[RobStark]

The EV-1 had a drag coefficient of 0.19. If GM did it, it could not have been too hard.

.22 plus Sexy is hard. Evidently.

.19 plus POS weirdmobile looks is none too difficult.

 

[myusername]

If Elon confirmed that they had over 500k reservations, and that if you order a 3 now, you will get it around the end of next year. Doesn't that imply that they are planning on hitting 10k a week much earlier in 2018 than is generally assumed? I haven't modeled it out or anything, but my wild guess is they would have to hit 10k/week around the end of Q1 to be able to hit over 500k cumulative by the end of 2018. Am I missing something?

"Doesn't that imply that they are planning on hitting 10k a week much earlier in 2018 than is generally assumed?"

that depends... what would you like to hear?... him literally saying "hopefully we'll hit 10k by the end of next year"?... or whatever it is you're after?

 

[Johann Koeber]

Are Europeans happy with the width at 72.8"?

4.5 " or 11.43 cm narrower than the Model S. I was guessing 3" narrower.

It seems a big gripe from Europeans was that Tesla vehicles were just too wide for European roads.

A 2017 BMW 3 Series is 71.3" and a 2017 BMW 5 Series is 73.5".

Sure I am happy.

The packaging of the M3 will appeal to European customers. It is more of a European Style than the S (let alone the X). It will do well over here.

 

[DITB]

You might PM @DITB

In HK, it wasn't just "an incentive". Cars in HK cost over twice as much after taxes (in the higher end of the spectrum). From being totally exempt of FRT (the tax you pay the first time a car is registered), it's now only "a little cheaper". Tesla DID stock some, before the decision (they must have seen it coming), but sales after that has gone to a round ZERO.

It's repeating what happened in Denmark. The fossil fuel and ICEV industries have too many ties to politicians in both Hong Kong and Denmark. A very stupid time to back out of EVs, before they are even up and running. But hey, it's just deferring the inevitable. It's won't be long before people realise that even without incentives, EVs beat the pants off of ICEVs except for ONE special discipline: Driving non stop for 800 miles, with only one bathroom break. Yup, some people enjoy driving a fossil fuel burner for 12 hours non stop - and for now, that little percentage can't be helped.

 

[FredTMC]

True... but in terms of margin looking at the $9k for the long range version, one has to assign COGS to these items.

Not sure what exactly you mean... that's okay, it's late.

If an owners Model 3 battery stops working at 130k miles, Tesla will (in my arrogant opinion) take five mins to pull out the battery and replace it with a used battery pack with less miles and send you out the door. Win/win

They'll take the failed battery back to the GF, and "remanufacture" it by removing the bad battery "bank of cells" and replace it with a working bank of cells with similar life left as the other cells. Then this pack will get repurposed to another car since this pack still has life left in it.

Again, just my opinion. That what I'd do. Their cost for repairing the pack isn't close to the cost of a brand new pack with brand new cells.

This is somewhat similar to early Drive Units failing. No muss, swap it out with a ReMan DU

Also, I didn't make it up to the event tonight. Had personal conflicts. Darn. I'll go to Semi or Model Y etc

Cheers

 

[techmaven]

Not sure what exactly you mean... that's okay, it's late.

If an owners Model 3 battery stops working at 130k miles, Tesla will (in my arrogant opinion) take five mins to pull out the battery and replace it with a used battery pack with less miles and send you out the door. Win/win

They'll take the failed battery back to the GF, and "remanufacture" it by removing the bad battery "bank of cells" and replace it with a working bank of cells with similar life left as the other cells. Then this pack will get repurposed to another car since this pack still has life left in it.

Again, just my opinion. That what I'd do. Their cost for repairing the pack isn't close to the cost of a brand new pack with brand new cells.

This is somewhat similar to early Drive Units failing. No muss, swap it out with a ReMan DU

Also, I didn't make it up to the event tonight. Had personal conflicts. Darn. I'll go to Semi or Model Y etc

Cheers

My post was referring to @schonelucht option pricing gross margin, not about the warranty itself. Just that there is higher COGS for a higher warranty and other things that has to be factored when looking at the $9k "long range" option.

 

[sundaymorning]

As I said in another thread, the event wasn't for 'you', it was for the employees.

Something I also want to add, we are passed the "hype" stage. There's simply no need for it. With 500,000 reservations holders impatiently waiting for their vehicles, things can get out of hand quickly, and I assume most don't understand the meaning of production "S" curve. Many people think cars can be manufactured like it's a cell phone--fast and easy. With the world watching, Elon once again describes it exactly how he sees it, "production hell". His message is simple: be patient with us, we'll work hard, and walk through hell to get your car delivered... Remember when your kids wanted that video game console they couldn't get bc Sony, Xbox or Nintendo couldn't produce them fast enough, remember how frustrated your kids were? Adults are worse to deal with imo..

 

[Fallenone]

After reading nearly a dozen reviews from differently news outlets, I threw my worries about the drivability and spartan interior out of the window. I am however, worried about the production hell. If it is anything like the same term used for X, it's no good. Only saving grace is the customers going through this hell would be Tesla employee instead of Signature reservation holders.

I think we might be 280 to 390 range bound until next year. Depending on Aug 2 ER reaction, could be seeing sub 300 soon. If so, great opportunity.