ValueAnalyst
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Agreed 110% and it's very frustrating that they are allowed to reduce the quality of this forum and waste everyone's time by spreading FUD.
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Agreed 110% and it's very frustrating that they are allowed to reduce the quality of this forum and waste everyone's time by spreading FUD.
So if this is to be believed 350,000+ people on the reservation list are likely or very likely to take delivery and many more are still thinking about it. (Not to mention the number of Model S/X buyers among those who say they are unlikely to buy the 3).
Cool.
Edit: @SebastianR beat me to it.
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Waiting4M3
Active Member
http://insideevs.com/july-2017-plug-electric-vehicle-sales-report-card/
Putting this in perspective, in Sep, 1500 M3 would already be around top 5 in US EV sales, and it's not even close to finish ramping yet, by the end of Dec the M3 could be at a Toyota Camry volume, outselling 3-series, A3/A4/S3/S4, C-class combined
Putting this in perspective, in Sep, 1500 M3 would already be around top 5 in US EV sales, and it's not even close to finish ramping yet, by the end of Dec the M3 could be at a Toyota Camry volume, outselling 3-series, A3/A4/S3/S4, C-class combined
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I think it's time that we drop comparisons to other EV sales/specs/volume/profitability and so on.
Model 3 is about choking ICE.
You have to like @wk057 :
A driver facing camera on the 3
Jason Hughes on Twitter
Thanks to @Lump for sending it to me
A driver facing camera on the 3
Jason Hughes on Twitter
Thanks to @Lump for sending it to me
The iPhone ships in 2007. RIM's revenue in 2007 was $3 billion. RIM's revenues grow to a peak of almost $20 billion in 2011, 4 years later. Amazing 7x growth. But in 2013, it's $11 billion, and by 2015, it's back down to $3.3 billion. Now it's $1.3 billion.
Blackberry's device shipments peak in 2011, well after the 2007 intro of the iPhone:
From: iPhone vs BlackBerry
In 2007 and 2008, plenty of people thought Apple's iPhone was destined to fail, or at least just be a small niche product. It wasn't obviously apparent to pretty much everyone that the trajectories would be vastly different until 2010. Stephen Elop’s “Burning Platform” memo wasn't until 2011, when Nokia went from dominance to WTF do we do now?
It isn't always obvious when something new comes along that it will be the disruptor. Sure, the signs are there, but can it really do it? The thought that millions of 12-14 year olds will be entrusted with carrying around $600-1,000 digital devices every day with $15-30 monthly payments was completely absurd to lots of people in 2007/2008. By 2012, not so much.
I stay out of shorting and out of commodities, but damn, there are some awesome opportunities to short oil. Did you know oil futures contracts currently trading extend out to DECEMBER 2025 ?!? This is absolutely not investment advice, since it's something I wouldn't even do myself, but the trajectory of oil prices by 2025 is pretty darn predictable (down down down) and the market isn't pricing it in -- they think oil prices will go up!
However, those far-out futures contracts are very thinly traded, so that does create serious problems with trying to make a bet there, problems I haven't been willing to investigate.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Particularly since one of TSLA's main priorities was to avoid MS canabalization.
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Very interesting. I've previously thought that the Model 3 would need a refresh before the self-driving taxi becoming a reality, where an interior cam would need to be included, but I guess it's ready out of the box.
An internal camera was the missing piece! HA!!Very interesting. I've previously thought that the Model 3 would need a refresh before the self-driving taxi becoming a reality, where an interior cam would need to be included, but I guess it's ready out of the box.
Elon really thinks robotaxis are going to happen with the current hardware.
Think for a second about why the main form of entry is from a smartphone, why there are no buttons in the car, why the glovebox is accessed through the touchscreen ......
Well, myusername, you're wrong. The electric car market as a whole has been growing at 50% y-o-y for quite a long time, and Tesla is tracking that growth rate. Tesla will probably fall very slightly behind that rate, but they are doing their best to keep up with it. No other company can do better (yes, I've checked all of them), so the only reason for falling behind is an increase in the *total number* of other companies involved, which is happening, but not to a significant extent. This only ends when we come close to 100% of cars being electric. We've modeled the terminal state over in one of jhm's threads.
Making a production line faster is hard.... but cloning a factory is easy.
You're wrong. You simply have not done the analysis.
BMW only produces 2.2 million cars per year. This will drop during the disapparance of gasoline cars. Tesla will be producing 500K cars roughly at the end of 2018 (probably a little later). Getting to 2.2 million? Well, it depends on capital raises and certain other decisions, but it should be before 2022.
As for "just another auto company", have you ever *heard* of "brand value"? Apple is "just another smartphone manufacturer", and makes technically inferior smartphones to Samsung, too, but they have a *brand*.
It's actually sort of interesting rebutting your arguments because they're so low-quality.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
They're keeping it close to their chest, but this is what I've gleaned:
- The solar roof is not going to go mass production until middle of next year, so insignificant contribution until 2019.
- Powerwalls and Powerpacks could start making a significant contribution as soon as this quarterly report, but more likely Q1 2018.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Wireless Neuralink - v.5
Total(ly) Recall - Johnny Cab
(naturally on Mars)
stealthology
Member
(12:50:00 PM): *BMW GROUP U.S. JULY 2017 SALES DOWN 14.8%
(12:50:06 PM): *BMW'S DUESMANN SAYS CO. NEVER DISCUSSED DEFEAT DEVICE USE: SZ
(12:50:06 PM): *BMW'S DUESMANN SAYS CO. NEVER DISCUSSED DEFEAT DEVICE USE: SZ
That's a pretty sneaky way of reporting numbers. "Unsure" is very different from "unlikely/very unlikely", and he doesn't break out the categories.
You can assume that the "unsure" people are just waiting for a test drive.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Wait, what.. I heard from @myusername that they make really nice cars. At that pace, Tesla does not have to grow to be as large as BMW, BMW is going to shrink to be smaller then Tesla.
erthquake
Active Member
It was a survey of Tesla owners. So it could mean they'll just get another S/X. Even if you could extrapolate that to all Tesla owners with Model 3 reservations, it would still have a small overall impact on reservation numbers. Basically meaningless.
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