One reason is that Google's approach relies on very expensive lidar. Also, Tesla is commercializing FSD in anticipation that it will be solved in the future. Google may not be willing to do that until it is fully ready. I don't believe Google was ever striving for EAP.
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The answer to that question is within the asking of another--
What exactly has Google/Alphabet been working on and why? The predominate guess is to commercialize the FSD within existing automakers as a license or buy cars, with it added, and operate as a Alpha-Uber. Regardless, there been little or no evidence of serious end-product integration work which makes both those assumption viable (LIDAR, physical integration will dramatically change the abilities of the software, etc.). In addition, Google has a history of 'working on' non-commercialized technology that goes no-where.
In short, Google has been working on 'something' since the 90s and Tesla makes the core commercialization delivery path.
Until, something threatens Google's core search business, this is a sideline (hark back to iOS inducing Android).
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I agree with what you said.. still though..
EAP has been a great source of halo for Tesla. It's interesting to me that no other company is even close to where Tesla is with EAP and also with OTA updates to improve the existing fleet's Autopilot capabilities.
Maybe I'm suffering from the Hindsight 2020 bias of "why didn't anyone else think of this?"
These two are entertaining. Both are seemingly intended to gather readers when they've nothing to say.
Saying that stock value is whatever it is, is absolutely true and totally useless. Zero information there.
Saying 'rational' valuation must wait until the future has happened is equally useless.
Thus, I offer my own 100% certain way to make profit. Buy low, sell high.
PaulRocket
Member
Obviously there will be. I'm asking what will happen to the first few thousands of Model 3 deliveries in Europe? It seems pretty obvious that they won't have a factory up and running by the end of 2018, or will they?
Somehow it seems likely they'll do something like the CKD kits of Tilburg to begin with, while the GF buildout continues. Tesla seems to have become quite adept at starting production in one place and gradually moving manufacturing as the factory becomes more capable. They've done that with motors, inverters, battery packs of both stationary and mobile types etc. Why would the European GF be any different? IMHO, the only questions are location and timing.
Hard to say. They won't have a factory in full operation by late 2018, but they could have something similar to Tilburg up and running. They could set up something like this in an existing building with minimal tooling. Another option is that they would simply pay the import duty for a period of time, until they are in a position to do manufacturing in the EU.
And of course, it's pretty much certain that the first shipments to Europe will go to Norway. Being outside the EU, there's no requirement that the manufacturing is done in the EU.
what other existing automaker sees the objective of driverless ride share as a 'source of halo' to their current business model?
trying to keep up with those Amazon-Fresh-Drones
Wal-Mart expands online grocery delivery via Uber to Orlando, Dallas
Wal-Mart expands online grocery delivery via Uber to Orlando, Dallas
1. Relies on LiDAR. Still currently expensive. Solid-state versions require four, one at each corner and even more computing power.
2. They didn't have a commercialization strategy, which was why Anthony Lewandowski left. They subsequently created and spun-off Waymo.
3. Their goal is Level 5, which ultimately means robotaxis. They likely wanted to be the OS / HW / taxi-network provider -- but which auto company would play? Who's capable of making enough EVs? Who's going to design a robotaxi? It's still premature given that they're still a couple years away from affordable LiDAR. This is one of the reasons I think Apple will build their own little iCar.
Tesla
1. Using solely vision, radar, and ultrasonics. Cheap and available now. Starting with L2 autonomy.
2. OTA update system already in place
3. Not playing by the "rules"
ValueAnalyst
Closed
This is helpful, thank you.
I'm not sure if the assumption that all fully autonomous cars need to be all-electric is a safe assumption.
I agree that all cars will one day be all-electric, but it's unclear that all FSD will be all-electric in the medium term.
Not all fully autonomous cars, but all robotaxis. It's an important distinction.
An ICE robotaxi can't compete with an EV equivalent on price per mile, maintenance, automation. It's why the CEO of Uber said he'd buy every Model 3 that was fully self-driving and why GM is using the Chevy Bolt in their Lyft trials. Volkswagen is similarly trialing an EV in that environment. Robotaxis will be EVs or they'll be priced out of the market.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
An ICE robotaxi does not have to compete with EV robotaxi to exist in the medium term. It just has to beat ICE/Uber driver for now.
The reason why most co's are using EV's to test is because that is the long-term likely outcome, but I'm talking about the next 3 to 5 years.
That is true ... until an EV robotaxi comes along. So why start a business that's viable only for a very short while? First mover advantage? Maybe.
But, consider the up-front costs of such an endeavor -- buying cars twice? Getting a full-service gas station to play along? Mechanics on stand-by for bi-weekly oil changes?
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I think it's the only chance some ICE manufacturers have to maintain some profitability while making long-term investments in Gigafactories.
I think there will be a few year period where some ICE manufacturers (e.g. GM) can benefit from FSD before Tesla/others can ramp EV production.
This is why it's so extremely important for Tesla to ramp Gigafactories as quickly as possible.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Elon-Tesla strategic planning.
Edit Addition:
I answered the wrong question! The question I answered is why the heck is Tesla the only oem to commercialize FSD/EAP plus figure out a way to reduce include the complete safety suite on every car, even though most of them have been making cars for decades?
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Reciprocity
Active Member
Because the ICEv will be worn out in a short period of time anyway, so its basically a disposable short term solution. The other reason? Who are these robotaxi companies going to get EVs from? No one makes enough of them as it is and the ones being made in any real numbers are $100k or Nissan leafs that die in 5 years as well. If you want to build a robotaxi company today, you only have a couple of choices and none of them are good. In 5 years, there will be a lot more EVs being pumped out and there will be sufficient options.
BTW, interesting article we can all relate to in the Harvard Business Review:
The author argues that classic metrics like market share and market penetration need to be flipped into something he calls problem penetration.
Aha!
Tesla Shows How Traditional Business Metrics Are Outdated
The author argues that classic metrics like market share and market penetration need to be flipped into something he calls problem penetration.
Aha!
Tesla Shows How Traditional Business Metrics Are Outdated
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
I believe that the reason is that it's much easier to implement control of an EV than an ICE.
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