2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[bdy0627]

Hi Guys. Haven't posted in a while, but wanted the perspective from this board in particular. I’m letting the wisdom of crowds decide if I allow Jalopnik access, but It’s not looking good.

Tesla Model S60 on Twitter

I’m not trying to be cute, but the coverage of Tesla by Jalopnik has been pretty terrible. I’m a strong advocate for EVs in general, and for what Tesla is trying to accomplish in transitioning the planet to sustainable transportation.

Jalopnik . . .not so much. The feedback I've been getting is that they are bottom-feeding trolls.

If you have a different take, or there is some perspective that you personally, could share, I’m open.

Taking delivery of my first Model 3 this afternoon.

I suggest no. Their coverage bias is generally negative and tends to paint Tesla in a negative way.

 

[callmesam]

I have the same opinion of Jalopnik as you do, but I voted yes anyway. Maybe they're just ignorant.

Thanks for the feedback. I guess my main concern is participating in a hit-piece. What if there is a paint scratch . . .

I suggest no. Their coverage bias is generally negative and tends to paint Tesla in a negative way.

Thanks for the feedback. My initial thought was yes. Then I got concerned.

P.S. I'm doing it anonymously if I decide to provide the access.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Thanks for the feedback. I guess my main concern is participating in a hit-piece. What if there is a paint scratch . . .



Thanks for the feedback. My initial thought was yes. Then I got concerned.

P.S. I'm doing it anonymously if I decide to provide the access.

No one knows how the build quality of your M3 better than you, if you think it's up to snuff then go for it. If not, then no. If not sure, then invite your closest family/friends to see it in person and see if they can find anything wrong with it. Family may be better for this since they won't hesitate to be mean to you.

 

[N5329K]

If it's not up to snuff, shouldn't everyone know about it?
Robin

 

[callmesam]

No one knows how the build quality of your M3 better than you, if you think it's up to snuff then go for it. If not, then no. If not sure, then invite your closest family/friends to see it in person and see if they can find anything wrong with it. Family may be better for this since they won't hesitate to be mean to you.

They want to come to the delivery.

 

[viridi]

callmesam - I have a fair amount of experience with the press, in particular unfriendly press. I would not give Jalopnik access. Just my two cents.

 

[Waiting4M3]

They want to come to the delivery.

Then no, I'd be taking all my family and friends out to drive this thing, Jalopnik can wait.

 

[Waiting4M3]

If it's not up to snuff, shouldn't everyone know about it?
Robin

Depend on the problem, if it's a minor issue that can be fixed by Tesla easily, and if it's not prevalent, then what would be gained focusing on that? Every car makers/dealers do the same thing, you check for things like alignment, paint chips, if you see something the dealer will fix it. Everyone knows that's what you do when you buy a new car but no one ever writes an article about it, unless when it's a Tesla. Edit: what I was thinking when I said " notup to snuff" is if the OP thinks there are any minor issues that will be taken out of proportion by Jalopnik, then he should not let them review it.

If there is a serious problem and Tesla is not fixing it, then go to the media to raise awareness.

 

[callmesam]

If it's not up to snuff, shouldn't everyone know about it?
Robin

Nope.

Depend on the problem, if it's a minor issue that can be fixed by Tesla easily, and if it's not prevalent, then what would be gained focusing on that? Every car makers/dealers do the same thing, you check for things like alignment, paint chips, if you see something the dealer will fix it. Everyone knows that's what you do when you buy a new car but no one ever writes an article about it, unless when it's a Tesla. Edit: what I was thinking when I said " notup to snuff" is if the OP thinks there are any minor issues that will be taken out of proportion by Jalopnik, then he should not let them review it.

If there is a serious problem and Tesla is not fixing it, then go to the media to raise awareness.

I've never had an issue that Tesla wouldn't (eventually) fix. I'm not worried about a scratch. I don't want to be a part of an article about a scratch.

 

[30seconds]

I would recommend against. I've had plenty of experience with the press (in a different field) and I wouldn't expect Jalopink to deviate from their prior stance on Tesla no matter how perfect the Model 3 is.

 

[elasalle]

Dec. 29th 2017 5:26 am ET
(Electrek)We are getting our Tesla Model 3 – What do you want to know ?

...Sure enough, he received an invite to configure in the second batch of invitations and he is taking delivery today

 

[Hogfighter]

I agree in part, but if something is going to constantly change or iterate, it's going to mostly be software. To me, it's software that will mostly contribute to the 5k-10k ramp, only because I cannot figure any other way they ramp that much without large capex. The ramp will be speeding up the robots which is controlled my software and machine learning as it relates to the timings required to hit the required speeds. Things are going to be moving so fast with a high density of robots at many of the stations along the production line that they will require not just good software, but software that can adapt small variances dynamically. This could include slowdowns and bursting where variances occur across multiple stations. Almost like one large organism that adjusts dynamically to the changing flow. So I would expect the software to never be completed with thousands of changes per year to improve speed, lower error rates, improve quality above and beyond the original design. I believe Elon once stated that they made thousands of changes to S/X production over a year for this very reason.

Software is also one area that Tesla can differentiate itself as a manufacturer. It had already done so in the car but now more then ever, the software for manufacturing is going to be 10x more complex and valuable as more and more automation and speed are implemented.

Tesla was clear that going from 5k to 10k was very little capex with 100% confidence. Tesla must have a lab already running a small subset of these same processes at very high speeds to have that kind of confidence. We have seen examples of machine learning from open ai where robotic arms are trained without actually writing code. I would imagine there is some overlap between open ai and Tesla.

To me, full alien dreadnaught will require better robots. The robots will be trained like a human, only a human with thousands of arms and sensors. The robots will need to be made is space X materials with very high quality motors for extremely fine control. The physical weight of the arm and tooling will become an issue and I'm surprised it's not already at 10k/w. Also the physical size of the robot arms required to do specific Jobs. This is where the design of the car is critical as it will allow large enough openings for robots to do work inside the car. The most common example is the wiring harness. The harness must be simplified and the robots able to reach every nook and cranny inside the chassis.

Quality control is another major areas where computer vision and machine learning can improve speed and quality. We did this in the print industry with high speed cameras that took pictures of every print to verify color and adjust automatically. Every robot arm and station could have cameras taking pictures of every detail and comparing them to a huge database of perfect welds or assignments of parts. Looking for cracks or stress marks like machine learning is used today to look at x-rays and diagnose things missed by doctors.

In short, I don't think Tesla will save any capex/r&d on the software any time soon. But the software will contribute the most to long term capex savings by doubling the number of cars that can be made by the same machines, facilities and people. All of which will contribute positively to cash flow. We just have to get from here to there, which means 1k/w - 5k/w - 10k/w. Alien dreadnaught is probably a decade away but the same number of robots might be able to build 20k/w though might require Space X materials for tooling and arms.

Certainly agree, and thanks for the insight. My point was that the uncertainty and risk associated with opening an identical factory is far less. Replicating the wheel is far cheaper and easier than inventing it.

 

[N5329K]

Here's a new Model X review that is fair, essentially positive, and still calls Tesla out for not getting the details right. I think that's a pretty sound model, don't you?

Robin

 

[Reciprocity]

Certainly agree, and thanks for the insight. My point was that the uncertainty and risk associated with opening an identical factory is far less. Replicating the wheel is far cheaper and easier than inventing it.

No doubt but Tesla doesn't seem to like to do things the easy way. I highly doubt factories will be a copy, but more of an iteration. And more then likely, by the time they are built and start running, they will have iterated based on things learned in the year+ the building was being built and populated with it's machinery. If they are making thousands of changes a year, then an exact duplicate won't work, but this will mostly be software and tooling. Depending on if they build a new facility or leverage an existing building like they did in Fremont, There could be layout changes that require the machine learning algos to take some time to update, but I'm sure they will make every effort to limit that stuff. Are they going to build mega factories that can build cars, batteries, solar and even semis. They would be smart to do that, but maybe it's s bridge to far. Certainly batteries and cars at a minimum.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Here's a new Model X review that is fair, essentially positive, and still calls Tesla out for not getting the details right. I think that's a pretty sound model, don't you?

It was fair enough. But Tesla is working on a lot of the niggles.

- Ghosting windshield. This has been resolved on newer cars.
- Auto-dimming for signs. It didn't say what software version was used. This was bad before, but I find it to be fairly good now. It can be expected to be continually improved, though. It's only been out something like three months for AP2.
- Bad navigation. There's major changes planned for early 2018. *Hopefully* they will resolve a lot of the issues.

 

[DragonWatch]

My wife suggests you consider a new girlfriend My wife has chewed my bottom on several occasions for investing her IRA in Tesla; but now she totally loves her MX and her stock is finally making numbers. So, life is good Even at these numbers Oh, by the way we celebrate our 44th anniversary Saturday

@Starno For what it is worth and update, a few days into our meeting she challenged my height:-( I was 1/2" shorter than her, now with all my running with backpacks I am almost 3" shorter than the good 'ol days:-( I asked her to marry me a week later and the rest is aging Oh yeah, she referred to my last girlfriend as dog face ~ she is a tough one She was/is tougher than most marines when it comes to caring for the family while I played army

After coaching (jC, she is a fiscal conservative) today we moved money into her ROTH IRA and then bought Tesla shares

We are looking into adding to our all things Tesla, a solar roof with 3 PWs. Waiting for the call now Sometimes the rain here in the NW is a pain ~ but love the green:-(

It would be helpful of Tesla went green this afternoon Happy New Year to one and all

 

[Reciprocity]

It was fair enough. But Tesla is working on a lot of the niggles.

- Ghosting windshield. This has been resolved on newer cars.
- Auto-dimming for signs. It didn't say what software version was used. This was bad before, but I find it to be fairly good now. It can be expected to be continually improved, though. It's only been out something like three months for AP2.
- Bad navigation. There's major changes planned for early 2018. *Hopefully* they will resolve a lot of the issues.

I also don't think he realizes there is an override for the fwd, that also gives you the option to always open full at that location in the future. The doors are sensitive, but I think it's best to be conservative and not have them scratched/dented. I have a Dec 2016 model x that had none of those issues. No ghosting, the nav has never been great with traffic but otherwise fine, and auto dimming had been an issue but the lights are so good that I never find myself needing high beams. And btw, not many 6-7 seaters have a ton of space in the boot, and no others have a frunk. Basically know super huge escalades and range Rovers for the Brits. Model x also had that mini van like well in the back with the removable conver which has advantages over most 7 seaters. All but mini vans actually.

Lastly, if you're going to do a review and test of a Tesla. Get a damn adapter for home charging. It's like one of the killer features of an electric car. Waking up to a full tank at home and at many hotels.

Pretty good review over all.

 

[candersoh]

The Near Future of Electric Cars: Many Models, Few Buyers
The Near Future of Electric Cars: Many Models, Few Buyers

anyone read this one today? "Magna International Inc., for example, the largest auto supplier in North America, is having vigorous debates over whether to add capacity to tool up for electric cars when its executives don’t see much demand for them over the next eight years. "

 

[DragonWatch]

@callmesam For what it is worth, I received my (our) MX on the 31st of March 2017 sight unseen. Tesla delivered to my garage and between James and my son-in-law it was inspected. Tesla and I worked together for 2Q17 numbers. When my wife and I returned home on the 1st of April we touched it and then went to bed. It was not until the 2d that we actually took it out for our maiden flight. James had pointed out to my son-in-law two tiny swirls (pinhead size) in the dark blue metallic paint. When I saw the issues, both my wife and I blew it off.

All issues with Tesla/MX have been resolved in a timely manner and without fuss ~ period.

If you are worried, as a retired army officer I am nitpicky, and annale:-( FYI ~ I have been called worse. I also love the car, my wife loves the car, and my children are afraid to drive it ~ they are funny

Hey ~ up front ~ my wife dropped a drill battery on the hood within the first week Now Xena (MX) has a dimple. Maybe after her (Xena) next detail I'll have it popped out at my expense. Do not worry, this car is the first and only object to be named by us in over 44 years

Now looking into a Tesla solar roof, so you have a ways to catch up to me

 

[DragonWatch]

The Near Future of Electric Cars: Many Models, Few Buyers
The Near Future of Electric Cars: Many Models, Few Buyers

anyone read this one today? "Magna International Inc., for example, the largest auto supplier in North America, is having vigorous debates over whether to add capacity to tool up for electric cars when its executives don’t see much demand for them over the next eight years. "

Yes, I read your attachment article. That article fits the FUDar scenario for me:-( Granted I do not have too many friends, but the folks I talk to are aiming towards EV. In and around Olympia, WA we are at or near 50% with Prius' and Leafs with a sprinkling of Teslas. So, I am not so sure that M3 backlog is a sign of lacking interest by the general public. While GM is pumping out hundreds of their Bolts, they neither have a backlog, nor is there an indication they are about to produce 1K a month anytime soon. So. . .

Thanks for attaching the article ~ good to read.