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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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Didn't see anybody mention it in here. Elon tweetstorm about Dad jokes? Seems like he's in a good mood again...
Yea, weather conditions for CRS-10 launch Saturday seems to be improving and should give us a spectacular first first stage daylight landing at LZ-1, if all runs flawlessly, so he is in an good mood...and hopefully, 2016Q4 Tesla results are better than anticipated too, or orders for Powerwalls and Powerpacks have been received in astronomical numbers...:) Or both, or some other surprising good news about Tesla.
 
Wow! Do not know what to make of it - in a span of 14 minutes shares available for shoring at Fidelity went from 678k to 0. I can't see so many shares shorted between the 1:45pm and 1:59pm. So either these shares are borrowed and shorting orders are made based on conditions that are not met yet (i.e. so many short cell shares are in the pipe line and could execute later today) or Fidelity for some reason decided to limit shares available for shorting (to 0).

Thoughts?

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I've been following this in Fidelity as well. It truly seems that the interest rate being charged is a more accurate indicator of what the shorts are up to, rather than the shares available.

I find it hard to believe that Fidelity would charge less than the maximum amount possible to lend shares.
 
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Does it mean SP will likely spring back up next week?
PS: Next week, we have earnings call which could swing the SP further

Dunno. I am thinking of working Max pain/option expiry into my trading calculus if this SP holds into friday (trading for other stocks, I'm holding TSLA forever). Will have to check next Max pain level, but I suspect at this point it is not so well defined for the next expiration date.
 
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Dunno. I am thinking of working Max pain/option expiry into my trading calculus if this SP holds into friday (trading for other stocks, I'm holding TSLA forever). Will have to check next Max pain level, but I suspect at this point it is not so well defined for the next expiration date.
TSLA pretty routinely ignores max pain. There is virtually no evidence to support that this is max-pain related. The bottom of the max-pain curve is usually pretty flat anyway.
 
Closed down $10.81.

I picked up two March $290's and two March 3 $300's, for the ER when the price was down $8. Would have saved about $100 if I had waited until close to the close. If the price is lower tomorrow and-or Tuesday I might buy a few more.
 
Thank you very much! It's a brilliant strategy that I didn't fully understand the implications of, until reading your post. Because you are using LEAPS as part of a strategy to accumulate shares instead of buying on margin for $120 per share? Congratulations on a brilliant trade!

The only way that I'd considered using LEAPS is to make money, which is different in some huge ways from accumulating shares.
Example, for other readers, if the SP drops by 20% to $800 per share in November 2018 and then recovers in February it doesn't matter with your strategy to execute your options, because you will own the same number of shares either way. But since I'm going to convert the LEAPS to money I'd lose $200 per contract or $20k total per contract!

If you are keeping the shares, and the "interest" is only 1 or 2 percent there is absolutely no reason to execute early. You might as well use the funds for something else in the meantime.

I have one question or suggestion. Since you were confident that the LEAPS will be profitable, probably by at least 200-300 percent, why didn't you buy more than you want to exercise, since the profit on the additional LEAPS could easily pay for the execution? Free is definitely better than $120 per share!

No more free cash at the time, basically.
 
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I agree with @MartinAustin because I typically see within a week or so prior to the earnings release, some will sell to lock in their profits. If you were to look at the graph for some stocks, you'll see the share price rise before the earnings, dip down a bit prior to a couple of days, then, if everything is good from the earnings, it shoots up the next day. NVDA and AMD show these trends that comes to my mind.

There's an entire category of "anti-event" technical-based short term stock traders who always sell stocks before earnings and buy back in after earnings because they don't want to be exposed to any stock movements from events. This is even more common among options traders (and the options market makers may well be hedging across the earnings date).
 
Dunno. I am thinking of working Max pain/option expiry into my trading calculus if this SP holds into friday (trading for other stocks, I'm holding TSLA forever). Will have to check next Max pain level, but I suspect at this point it is not so well defined for the next expiration date.

TSLA pretty routinely ignores max pain. There is virtually no evidence to support that this is max-pain related. The bottom of the max-pain curve is usually pretty flat anyway.

Volume is key. Triple-witching max pain day is a big factor too. If we keep seeing the 7M share days, max pain probably won't have much pull, but in light volume days, I've had to put on sunglasses due to the max-pain tractor beam that begins to shine.
 
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Currently showing max-pain at 272.50, up from 270 yesterday.... although that web site runs quirky enough I take that with a grain of salt.
 
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Volume is key. Triple-witching max pain day is a big factor too. If we keep seeing the 7M share days, max pain probably won't have much pull, but in light volume days, I've had to put on sunglasses due to the max-pain tractor beam that begins to shine.[/QUOTE/]

Given the max pain I was in/out of $270 puts all days as we danced around max pain. The trades, while profitable, did little to dent overall paper loss today
 
There's an entire category of "anti-event" technical-based short term stock traders who always sell stocks before earnings and buy back in after earnings because they don't want to be exposed to any stock movements from events. This is even more common among options traders (and the options market makers may well be hedging across the earnings date).

Yes, learning the hard way that this may be a prudent way to go for short term trades.
 
there's the other gap at $240 from Jan 19... might as well go and pick that one up too.

Hey myusername. Just wanted to acknowledge that you made very accurate calls on the rise to 280 and this recent drop. Nice job. Where next?

I plan to hold on to my shares through any drop but have no problem swallowing my pride and soliciting advise when someone's been right.

I also greatly value jesselivenomore, Trendtrader 007, DaveT, and a bunch of others.

Keep it coming. Thx.
 
there's the other gap at $240 from Jan 19... might as well go and pick that one up too.

I thought it filled that gap. I don't remember the exact numbers but I was trading as high as 239 and closed around 237, I forgot the news but it opened around 246 before settling in the low 240s. It was either the next day or day after it breached 240 briefly to 239.8 before recovering to 242. Doesn't that count as filling the gap? Though I wouldnt mind buying at 240 again. I am not sure about ER next Wednesday and have sold out of all my options. Hopefully a lot of good news about the future that should help the stock but I just have a feeling the market react neutral to negative.
 
I thought it filled that gap. I don't remember the exact numbers but I was trading as high as 239 and closed around 237, I forgot the news but it opened around 246 before settling in the low 240s. It was either the next day or day after it breached 240 briefly to 239.8 before recovering to 242. Doesn't that count as filling the gap? Though I wouldnt mind buying at 240 again. I am not sure about ER next Wednesday and have sold out of all my options. Hopefully a lot of good news about the future that should help the stock but I just have a feeling the market react neutral to negative.
Jan 18 high: $239.71
Jan 19 low: $240.75

and it hasn't been under $240 since Jan 18... technically... that's a gap... that was a fantastic run.
 
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