2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[WarpedOne]

Are there any channels we could use to gauge the PPA sell rate?
As I understand things, Tesla can sell as many PPA as they wish. Why wouldn't they sell as much as needed for a few M of total profit?
Just to prove a point and shot another hole into bear arguments, or bake another pie for wallstreet.

 

[1kEE]

I'm entertaining myself by day-trading weeklies.... gotta do something for fun after yesterday.

Watching it on a 3-minute chart and seems to be following the lower BB.

 

[Russianserg]

After selling at $270 yesterday, I went all in again at $267.70 this morning when it was looking like the stock was holding (and still is). Something tells me the potential short-term downside risk for this upcoming ER is worth it in case there's a surprise.

I totally agree. Where Tesla has seen some dives after the last two ER's I think that this one is too hard to predict. Last thing that I want to do is be left in the dust. I bought in at $247 and sold at $279, then bought back in at $266. We shall see.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I think you are leaving out their residual payments? That would add to the 256M. I fully expect the SCTY part to be a positive cash contribution, I just doubt it's magnitude will be enough for a GAAP profitable quarter for Tesla. Hope so though of course, I just find it unlikely.

My positional bet should lose big-time of they report another profit. I expect a lot of media "see Q3 was a one time trick" of they report losses, which I think will accelerate price drops.

Not sure I follow you. I was referring to cash transaction in which Solar City sold some PPAs of their books.

 

[vgrinshpun]

The Maximum Pain today is $270:

 

[1kEE]

...
$266 is the magic number... one scenario tomorrow is a quick drop sub $265 maybe to $262.50 and a recovery and pin at $266
...

Good call on the 266 number !!

 

[vgrinshpun]

Good call on the 266 number !!

Thank you! It was about time to move up off it.

 

[1kEE]

In the extreme short term, looks like a consolidation at 266 and move up from there?

 

[1kEE]

And now it bounced off the upper BB... Feels like algos are just playing off technicals today.

Have a feeling it will ride the upper BB for a little bit now....

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Are there any channels we could use to gauge the PPA sell rate?

I don't believe so, but you can bet that they pulled back significantly from PPAs or at least pushing PPAs in newer markets. Straight sales are instantly profitable and likely their focus during this reset period.

I suspect the PPA offering comes back as a new rebranded product within a couple quarters once they sort out how they want to sell it. Elon is likely scrapping their sales structure in favor of online sales with a massive referral scheme. Average sales cost was like $4-6k for each install, that's a lot of fat with which to create a better way.

As I understand things, Tesla can sell as many PPA as they wish. Why wouldn't they sell as much as needed for a few M of total profit?
Just to prove a point and shot another hole into bear arguments, or bake another pie for wallstreet.

PPAs are "sold off" all the time and I don't think they're holding too many on the books right now. Haven't tried to figure it out recently though.

If they've pulled back from PPAs as expected, the SCTY story should be a positive one this quarter as the harder they push the worse the books look(in the short term).

 

[myusername]

In the extreme short term, looks like a consolidation at 266 and move up from there?

View attachment 215198

look at the volume increase while trying to hold it up... and the volume decrease at $266... my guess is it drops back down... and closes around $265.50 or under.

 

[vgrinshpun]

look at the volume increase while trying to hold it up... and the volume decrease at $266... my guess is it drops back down... and closes around $265.50 or under.

My prediction is that we close at $269.99

 

[geneclean55]

Looking like a 270 magnet? How it behaves over the quiet lunch hours when it usually dips will be telling.

Also, guessing market will be less busy this afternoon with the long weekend ahead...so market-makers will probably get their preferred pin.

 

[1kEE]

look at the volume increase while trying to hold it up... and the volume decrease at $266... my guess is it drops back down... and closes around $265.50 or under.

I'm going to ride it up until it breaks away from the upper BB....

@myusername, just curious, how many years have you been in the game, and how many stocks do you "work" at any one time? I'm a total rookie but certainly appreciate hanging out with people that have done it for a while and it sounds like you have the feel for it.

 

[1kEE]

Looking like a 270 magnet? How it behaves over the quiet lunch hours when it usually dips will be telling.

Diverging from upper BB.. I'm thinking it will bounce around and drift up towards 270 after lunch.

 

[geneclean55]

I would be more than happy with a 270 close helped by MM. Up from yesterdays close, and still within realistic sight of ATH to keep traders interested if we get good ER news.

 

[Richgoogol]

i have a feeling that it will end in a positive note for the day

 

[myusername]

My prediction is that we close at $269.99

you're more right than me... i still don't think the gaps been filled... after 3 tries now.

 

[Nate the Great]

So should be anticipate a rally on Monday?

 

[MikeC]

So should be anticipate a rally on Monday?

No, the market is closed for Presidents' Day.