2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[MartinAustin]

What does that have to do with Tesla stock?

Apart from that it gives journalists the catnip they desire - being able to put "Tesla" into their headlines

 

[D-egg-O]

What does that have to do with Tesla stock?

Apart from that it gives journalists the catnip they desire - being able to put "Tesla" into their headlines

 

[T34ME]

I can't believe this happened tonight. DW and I were taking our usual evening walk and she said she had been reading all these negative things about TESLA and their stock on the Internet. She asked if we shouldn't get out of TSLA while the getting is good. I went into apoplectic shock! I am not a sophisticated stock investor and she is even less so. I am a long but from reading this thread, I guess she would be called a "weak long." I tried to remain calm and reassure her. I told her about Puerto Rico, China deal, more countries phasing out ICE, SEMI, Boring, PowerWalls, and what a "short" is and what motivates them. These so-called annalists are really doing a job on TESLA and weak longs. She was ecstatic with TSLA in August and September but these last few days have been brutal from her viewpoint and has left her discouraged. I told her not to look at the stock on a daily basis, that is meaningless and counterproductive. I told her to read the positive about TSLA as well as the negative. I know she took my advice and viewpoint under serious consideration. We shall see.

I want to thank the participants in this thread (even the ones I have on ignore) for giving me some background and basis for addressing her concerns. I don't have much to contribute to this thread but I do read it faithfully. Thanks.

 

[Bet TSLA]

I want to thank the participants in this thread

If you are a long term buy and hold and investor you really shouldn't be reading a thread for traders. It will just get you confused and upset. Look at the stock at most once a quarter, better yet once a year. Tell your wife that the time to reconsider your position is on its yearly anniversary, and that all arguments should be saved up until then. Other approaches just help guarantee that you'll buy high and sell low.

Note: I don't mean all people need behave this way, but some should and I get the impression you're in that group.

 

[3Victoria]

While I am solid long, and not very sophisticated, I get a kick out of watching the fireworks. I think that one needs to be a contrary investor, when the majority are selling, its time to buy and vice versa. Of course, I do not heed my advice, since I am holding for the long-term, but its fun to watch and theorize.

 

[22522]

I can't believe this happened tonight. DW and I were taking our usual evening walk and she said she had been reading all these negative things about TESLA and their stock on the Internet. She asked if we shouldn't get out of TSLA while the getting is good. I went into apoplectic shock! I am not a sophisticated stock investor and she is even less so. I am a long but from reading this thread, I guess she would be called a "weak long." I tried to remain calm and reassure her. I told her about Puerto Rico, China deal, more countries phasing out ICE, SEMI, Boring, PowerWalls, and what a "short" is and what motivates them. These so-called annalists are really doing a job on TESLA and weak longs. She was ecstatic with TSLA in August and September but these last few days have been brutal from her viewpoint and has left her discouraged. I told her not to look at the stock on a daily basis, that is meaningless and counterproductive. I told her to read the positive about TSLA as well as the negative. I know she took my advice and viewpoint under serious consideration. We shall see.

I want to thank the participants in this thread (even the ones I have on ignore) for giving me some background and basis for addressing her concerns. I don't have much to contribute to this thread but I do read it faithfully. Thanks.

You probably can't see this, but I am also sort of long and read this thread, and learn a lot because it.

I cannot advise your family, but for me, the investment choices can be painted as Tesla or [General Electric.]

GE could do everything that Tesla does: wind farm with batteries in Austrailia, Solar grid for PR, Electric cars, but they focus on making money. What has that done to the stock price?

Ask her to do a google search on GE. Tell her that the GE tag line from 1979 to 2003 was, "we bring good things to life." Look at the sock price over that time period.

We Bring Good Things to Life - Wikipedia

Elon picked up the ball about improving people's lives for a while, while GE focused on profit margins. Now Elon is losing focus because he has some stupid profit margin metric, that he should just ignore while focusing on scale. One day he may look in the mirror and see the current GE, or other Fortune 500, CEO, but we have a little while yet.

 

[jhm]

I can't believe this happened tonight. DW and I were taking our usual evening walk and she said she had been reading all these negative things about TESLA and their stock on the Internet. She asked if we shouldn't get out of TSLA while the getting is good. I went into apoplectic shock! I am not a sophisticated stock investor and she is even less so. I am a long but from reading this thread, I guess she would be called a "weak long." I tried to remain calm and reassure her. I told her about Puerto Rico, China deal, more countries phasing out ICE, SEMI, Boring, PowerWalls, and what a "short" is and what motivates them. These so-called annalists are really doing a job on TESLA and weak longs. She was ecstatic with TSLA in August and September but these last few days have been brutal from her viewpoint and has left her discouraged. I told her not to look at the stock on a daily basis, that is meaningless and counterproductive. I told her to read the positive about TSLA as well as the negative. I know she took my advice and viewpoint under serious consideration. We shall see.

I want to thank the participants in this thread (even the ones I have on ignore) for giving me some background and basis for addressing her concerns. I don't have much to contribute to this thread but I do read it faithfully. Thanks.

I just ride these things out. I've held since the stick was priced at $54. When the media is screaming sell and the spirits of bulls are crushed, that's usually the best time to buy. For me, the best time to sell is in retirement when I need the income. So I just keep accumulating when others get discouraged.

I last bought at $336. If it drops to $324, maybe more. Otherwise I'll be happy to see the price hold up.

 

[avoigt]

About 6 months ago I checked the German used car inventory web side and counted how many are available. Its been around 70 cars. 4 weeks ago I did count again and ended with 33 available S and X.

Today its just a slim 20 cars left .... pretty narrow for a country with 80 M citizens but consistent with the sales rep I talked to lately telling me they don`t even haven a S for Test drives any more and wait for the next delivery in November.

Nothing that can be extrapolated of course but still a nice and positive indicator....

 

[ValueAnalyst]

These two data points, do not confirm, but support my view that Model 3 production ramp is about two to three weeks behind "tweet schedule," and they are also in-line with Elon's prediction that "December will be a big month."

If my hypothesis is correct, I would expect additional VINs to emerge by Friday, further acceleration (i.e. dozens) in the last week of October, VIN 1134 to be delivered by mid-November, Tesla to be producing 1,000 Model 3's per week by end-November, and 13,000+ deliveries in December, for a total of 15,000 deliveries in 4Q17.

This hypothesis is the primary reason why I expect TSLA to start rising by the end of October and into year-end.

Step 1 ‎✔ Tesla is delivering more Model 3 vehicles as customer delivery deadline approaches

I'll be watching @vgrinshpun's posts on max registered VIN like a hawk (see below). Hopefully by the end of this week, we should see a jump. Could there be a delay between Tesla registering more VIN's and this being reflected on the website?

Tracking my October 15 prediction:

Step 1 ‎✔ Additional VINs did emerge following a pause two weeks ago.
Step 1.5 ‎✔ We did see a jump in max registered VIN last week.
Step 2 ? Further acceleration (i.e. dozens) by October 31. Accelerating sightings are encouraging, but not conclusive.
Step 3 ? VIN 1134 delivered by mid-November. Mind delay between produced/delivered as deliveries expand beyond CA.
Step 4 ? 1,000 Model 3's per week produced by end-November.
Step 5 ? 13,000+ Model 3's delivered in December, for a total of 15,000 deliveries in 4Q17.

 

[zdriver]

NASDAQ pre-market trades. One of these is not like the others...

08:27:23 $ 337.01 100
08:27:23 $ 337.01 100
08:26:38 $ 337 7
08:26:38 $ 337 3
08:26:13 $ 337.34 1,500,000
08:26:07 $ 337.24 50
08:25:21 $ 337 41
08:25:21 $ 337.01 2
08:25:21 $ 337.10 14

From http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/premarket

That's a half a billion dollars.


Worth noting as someone mentioned on twitter,

No movement which means it may have been private transaction at agreed price by 2 funds one looking to cover short and other wanting to sell

Perhaps related to the "extra" 100-200k trade seen after the MOC order yesterday? I should start tracking large pre/post market trades...

 

[dalalsid]

Tracking my October 15 prediction:

Step 1 ‎✔ Additional VINs did emerge following a pause two weeks ago.
Step 1.5 ‎✔ We did see a jump in max registered VIN last week.
Step 2 ? Further acceleration (i.e. dozens) by October 31. Accelerating sightings are encouraging, but not conclusive.
Step 3 ? VIN 1134 delivered by mid-November. Mind delay between produced/delivered as deliveries expand beyond CA.
Step 4 ? 1,000 Model 3's per week produced by end-November.
Step 5 ? 13,000+ Model 3's delivered in December, for a total of 15,000 deliveries in 4Q17.

Will VIN 1134 be worth more than other VINs?

 

[JRP3]

Really my only worry for Tesla, a huge battery breakthrough that we miss. I know that these things still take time to reach production and prove themselves over time, but still a worry. All good for the planet.

Toshiba claims EV battery breakthrough: 200-mile charge in 6 minutes

No need to worry about this one as far as I can tell, it's no breakthrough at all. Lithium titanate has been around for a while, has always been able to fast charge, but has always had poor energy density. This is an improvement but the "200 mile range" claim is total BS, probably using the very forgiving Japanese range test. This might get 130 miles range on the EPA test.

 

[myusername]

I can't believe this happened tonight. DW and I were taking our usual evening walk and she said she had been reading all these negative things about TESLA and their stock on the Internet. She asked if we shouldn't get out of TSLA while the getting is good. I went into apoplectic shock! I am not a sophisticated stock investor and she is even less so. I am a long but from reading this thread, I guess she would be called a "weak long." I tried to remain calm and reassure her. I told her about Puerto Rico, China deal, more countries phasing out ICE, SEMI, Boring, PowerWalls, and what a "short" is and what motivates them. These so-called annalists are really doing a job on TESLA and weak longs. She was ecstatic with TSLA in August and September but these last few days have been brutal from her viewpoint and has left her discouraged. I told her not to look at the stock on a daily basis, that is meaningless and counterproductive. I told her to read the positive about TSLA as well as the negative. I know she took my advice and viewpoint under serious consideration. We shall see.

I want to thank the participants in this thread (even the ones I have on ignore) for giving me some background and basis for addressing her concerns. I don't have much to contribute to this thread but I do read it faithfully. Thanks.

how are you sure she wasn't the rational one in the conversation? I can't tell you how many times I've had a discussion on this board about valuation with it ending in "why can't you understand that we are just taking a risk with money we are not concerned about losing".

it sounds to me like she is taking a risk with money she is concerned about losing... and your response to her was supplied by a pure pro-tesla bias forum. believe it, there is very real risk of total loss with this company... and this stock is propped up so high it would be very damaging... especially to retail... AND I am not part of a short conspiracy. I simply have alternate views and observe this board as well.

 

[myusername]

woh... what is going on this morning in pre-market?

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/premarket

what is up with the 1.5m volume?... and the lack of volatility with it?

8:26:13: 1.5m shares traded.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Will VIN 1134 be worth more than other VINs?

Whoever gets VIN 1134 should make it a collector car.

 

[Reciprocity]

woh... what is going on this morning in pre-market?

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/premarket

what is up with the 1.5m volume?... and the lack of volatility with it?

8:26:13: 1.5m shares traded.

My Guess is that some bought the F**king Dip. Good on them.

 

[Paracelsus]

If you are a long term buy and hold and investor you really shouldn't be reading a thread for traders..

Respectfully - I have been a long term 'buy and hold' investor since early 2013 that has benefited tremendously from the information shared on this board. It gave me the opportunity to become a much better 'buy on the really low dips and hold' investor instead of just buying more shares at the end of each month when I had money available. And when I made the conscious decision to take time off work to spend that time with my parents while they were passing in 2016 and up until I returned to work in mid-2017 the information on this board greatly assisted me in minimizing the number of sharers I had to sell to allow that to be possible by helping me target the best opportunities to sell as little as possible each time........which ended up being only about 5% of the number of shares I held. I am extremely grateful for the information shared on this board and the chance to 'get to know' the personalities and the positions of the contributors. Not only is the trading thread the most enjoyable to follow for me personally, it also helped me preserve as much of my investment as was possible during some very unexpected and difficult times, and return to a status of adding with better timing and helping bring others to this stock at good times as well. Thanks to all for making that possible!

 

[myusername]

My Guess is that some bought the F**king Dip. Good on them.

no... that's a block trade. someone is exiting their position without taking down the market... at least some of their position. this is a very different open than I've seen in a while.

 

[racer26]

I don't understand the logic behind the hand wringing over battery breakthroughs.

Tesla will be at the forefront of any breakthrough that happens. Tesla is the world's largest buyer of Lithium-ion batteries today, and the margin by which they are the largest buyer is rapidly growing. If you have a new battery tech breakthrough, who's the first company you're going to approach if you want to make money?

Unless a breakthrough is made by one of the other OEMs in-house (and they're not even showing enough interest in EVs to make me believe they'd attempt research in this field), whoever makes a breakthrough will approach Tesla. Tesla also has a team of people monitoring battery developments, and evaluating their suitability. If they find something, you can be sure it will find its way into the cars.

 

[Reciprocity]

no... that's a block trade. someone is exiting their position without taking down the market... at least some of their position. this is a very different open than I've seen in a while.

I was kidding.. though I thought the "F**king Dip" comment would tell you that. Its clearly meant cause the FUD you love to spread. Hopeful more shorts join the fray, need a lot more of them to fund future advances in the stock as they cover in futility.