2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[bdy0627]

What I am a little worried about short term is if Tesla suddenly formally announces a delay for the public Model 3 release. Obviously, there is a delay and the stock is dropping as a result, but I think a formal announcement would really add some fuel to the negative sentiment going on right now. That announcement could come next week during the ER. But guys, I've gotta have more TSLA at these prices.
How likely is it that the share price is going to be lower between now and the ER? I'm guessing pretty likely but no idea really. It seems very doubtful that clear signs of the ramp progressing are going to suddenly show up in the next week, which means I should probably step away from the computer and stop buying more.

 

[bdy0627]

The 10 minute power hour is here and man, the bears are vicious today!

 

[jimmyjohn]

Within 12 months, experts will look back (over the previous 12 months) and see that Elon's actions - not words - moved further away from all businesses except SpaceX.

Tesla appears rudderless.

The biggest concern is execution of deliverables / promises.

I think we're starting to see serious kinks and, at this point, a transition to a new CEO should be explored. Elon is, for sure, an idea guy and a risk taker. Yet, Tesla are leveraged the gills and bad mojo appears to be multiplying.

Negative guidance -- on any deliverable -- next week would be catastrophic.

 

[SteveG3]

Business as usual ...

precisely

in fact, for those of us thinking of the stock price as $350 +/-$50, it's the stock price "as usual" for months now

2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

 

[techmaven]

What I am a little worried about short term is if Tesla suddenly formally announces a delay for the public Model 3 release. Obviously, there is a delay and the stock is dropping as a result, but I think a formal announcement would really add some fuel to the negative sentiment going on right now. That announcement could come next week during the ER

Most likely Tesla just says they are working on the ramp.

We are seeing more and more Model 3's getting delivered across the country. But we have had a lull in the reporting of VINs, which is freaking everyone out. We really don't know the state of the production as it stands today.

If things are not good, I doubt we get much clarity in the ER. They'll just say they are working really hard at it and they had previously said they were going into production hell.

 

[SBenson]

If things are not good, I doubt we get much clarity in the ER. They'll just say they are working really hard at it and they had previously said they were going into production hell.

They will also add “no fundamental issues”

 

[TMSE]

Can anyone with expertise in block trade comment on the 1.5M shares block traded in the pre-market? How do we know whether it is bullish or bearish, as there is a buyer and seller for every trade?

 

[Intl Professor]

What the hell guys? I literally stop watching the stock for a week and you go and do this???

Who's you guys, Tonto?

 

[SteveG3]

They will also add “no fundamental issues”

sure, why not.

as to potential "fundamental issues" in Tesla's Model 3 production ramp (to my mind, that would mean an issue so substantial that it alters the fundamental potential of Tesla's growth over the next 5-10 years), I see

Corporate sabotage causing a "fundamental issue" at under a 5% risk

All other causing a "fundamental issue" at under a 1% risk,

so, I'd be surprised and quite concerned if Tesla in anyway suggests there were "fundamental issues" by the definition I offered above (granted, not assuming Tesla uses that definition).

 

[ATHiker]

They will also add “no fundamental issues”

And give a rosy forecast of where production will be at year end, which everyone will discount. Usually the commentary is bullish, so I think they'll come out with a few tidbits to get people excited.

My big concern on the quarter is cash burn. Between $1bn in CAPX, higher operating losses due to the Model 3 delays, probably a few $100mm in higher working capital, plus the SolarCity bond repayment, it wouldn't surprise me if most of the high yield proceeds are used up. I've got cash exiting Q3 at around $3.2 - 3.5bn with another big burn in Q4. I wonder if that's why we're trading down heading into the numbers.

 

[Intl Professor]

WAG. With more news about Tesla's potential success, China factory, S and X production, etc., despite what I hope are only hiccups with M3, can we really discount investment bankers driving SP down in advance of new bond offerings by Tesla for their clients? Again that block trade worth on the order of $0.5 billion is really a price hiccup. But then, trading is not my style. Does Papafox know?

 

[jimmyjohn]

13 (and counting) disagrees --- this is a new record. Thanks!

Within 12 months, experts will look back (over the previous 12 months) and see that Elon's actions - not words - moved further away from all businesses except SpaceX.

Tesla appears rudderless.

The biggest concern is execution of deliverables / promises.

I think we're starting to see serious kinks and, at this point, a transition to a new CEO should be explored. Elon is, for sure, an idea guy and a risk taker. Yet, Tesla are leveraged the gills and bad mojo appears to be multiplying.

Negative guidance -- on any deliverable -- next week would be catastrophic.

 

[SteveG3]

Perhaps the most helpful 5 minutes I've ever seen anyone offer regarding decision making for an individual investor.

Using Buffett's "punchcard" analogy, I think we've done well to use a "punch" on Tesla... but, how about considering our choices among the Tesla investing possibilities. We can each ask ourselves, do we want to use one of our 20 "punches" for betting

- on TSLA outperforming the market in the long-term

- the timing, to a month, of when the market as an aggregate transitions from being irrational to rational in its valuation of Tesla

- the timing of when the short position in Tesla will return to the normative size for publicly traded companies

As Buffett put it in the video,

"It's a terrible mistake to think you have to have an opinion on everything, you only have to have an opinion on a few things."

 

[tslagreen]

Within 12 months, experts will look back (over the previous 12 months) and see that Elon's actions - not words - moved further away from all businesses except SpaceX.

Tesla appears rudderless.

The biggest concern is execution of deliverables / promises.

I think we're starting to see serious kinks and, at this point, a transition to a new CEO should be explored. Elon is, for sure, an idea guy and a risk taker. Yet, Tesla are leveraged the gills and bad mojo appears to be multiplying.

Negative guidance -- on any deliverable -- next week would be catastrophic.

 

[SteveG3]

13 (and counting) disagrees --- this is a new record. Thanks!

well, you did write "Tesla appears rudderless", as Tesla is running toward long range EVs like a dog chasing a squirrel, while the incumbent automakers are turning towards EVs about as enthusiastically as a dog turns to submitting to a wash in the bathtub.

 

[zdriver]

Not really. In order for someone to position themselves to use shares to sell them for shorting, they need to **borrow** shares. The 1.5M shares pre-market was buy/sell transaction

My hunch right now is maybe an institution with a lot of shares wanted out quick, but didn't have the technical talent to do so, so they had someone else do the selling, and in return, they would settle up before open the next day. One institution/firm shorts 1.5m shares yesterday (and likely previous days), and when they're done (or hit their shorting limits, at say $0.5B), they "square up", by buying 1.5m shares from the institution that wanted to sell. This allows them to cover their epic short risk free of price rising in the process, and the "original" seller gets the shares sold quick, at the cost of selling near the "bottom" instead of the average of all shares sold - but this "bottom price" is almost certainly higher than if an inexperienced individual just tried to sell 1.5m shares "quickly".

Fair disclaimer, just a wild-ass guess, I'm probably wrong.

Can anyone with expertise in block trade comment on the 1.5M shares block traded in the pre-market? How do we know whether it is bullish or bearish, as there is a buyer and seller for every trade?

I'm gonna go with bearish after today...

 

[tslagreen]

I observe, but don't post here often. Needless to say, the overall sentiment is pretty negative currently with
some reasonable basis, namely, the apparent slow progress of the Model 3 ramp up. Nevertheless, did anyone
care to notice that the market as a whole and the Nasdaq specifically was down pretty hard today? Nasdaq darlings
like NVDA down 2.53%, for example. I think what also may be in play is AMDs poor showing today, down 13.47%! Perhaps
people are associating their downturn with TSLA. Finally, people generally get jittery
around earnings and are sometimes nervous to hold through the earnings date.

I have been long since 2013 and intend to stay long for at least 5-10 years (probably longer). I think this is a buying opportunity now along the thinking of Ben Kallo's advice to buy on any weakness. Best of luck to longs!

 

[avoigt]

A couple of reasons why I REALLY like this: Panasonic plans to increase battery production at Tesla’s Gigafactory 1 and other plants, says report

Panasonic invests in the expansion of GF1 and they do what is profitable. Expecting profit in 2018 which is just great. In other words the costs per KWH continues to go down and is likely the lowest in the market. With average 10 to 15k costs for a Batterie in a M3 the Batterie is the determining factor for the profitability of M3.

With Tesla as the largest customer for Batteries in the world the biggest investment will likely be with GF1. Say all resources which go to Tesla are not going to all the other automakers (investments and Batteries).

I ask myself if Tesla signed a volume deal with Panasonic and they plan to be profitable at GF1 in 2018 with Batteries at what time has Tesla calculated to be profitable?

 

[supratachophobia]

What I am a little worried about short term is if Tesla suddenly formally announces a delay for the public Model 3 release. Obviously, there is a delay and the stock is dropping as a result, but I think a formal announcement would really add some fuel to the negative sentiment going on right now. That announcement could come next week during the ER. But guys, I've gotta have more TSLA at these prices.
How likely is it that the share price is going to be lower between now and the ER? I'm guessing pretty likely but no idea really. It seems very doubtful that clear signs of the ramp progressing are going to suddenly show up in the next week, which means I should probably step away from the computer and stop buying more.

It has to be a delay they've already decided. And then the info was leaked per usual. Then when the actual announcement happens, SP will do nothing.

 

[supratachophobia]

Within 12 months, experts will look back (over the previous 12 months) and see that Elon's actions - not words - moved further away from all businesses except SpaceX.

Tesla appears rudderless.

The biggest concern is execution of deliverables / promises.

I think we're starting to see serious kinks and, at this point, a transition to a new CEO should be explored. Elon is, for sure, an idea guy and a risk taker. Yet, Tesla are leveraged the gills and bad mojo appears to be multiplying.

Negative guidance -- on any deliverable -- next week would be catastrophic.

You are acting like delays and misses on promises are new with EM.....