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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by AudubonB, Dec 30, 2016.

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  1. MikeC

    MikeC Active Member

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    No, the market is closed for Presidents' Day.
     
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  2. racer26

    racer26 Active Member

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    Tuesday's likely to be interesting though - with the usual start-of-week bump on top of earnings activity, could be interesting.
     
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  3. 1kEE

    1kEE Member

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    Maybe, only problem is market is closed so we will miss it lol.
     
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  4. Waiting4M3

    Waiting4M3 Active Member

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    Just picked up some shares at $265 at opening and flipped at $270, thanks to some people who forgot about the big picture
     
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  5. geneclean55

    geneclean55 Active Member

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    Prescient?
     
  6. Nate the Great

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    Interest rate dropped.

    Fidelity 292,371 1.750 %
     
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  7. racer26

    racer26 Active Member

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    Is that the tractor beam coming in? I'm feeling some pull...
     
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  8. geneclean55

    geneclean55 Active Member

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    Looks like we got some duelling tractor beams?
     
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  9. 1kEE

    1kEE Member

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    We're gonna close above 270 and that's a good close.

    Enough playing day trader, I'm going back to industrial junk trading.... I hear there's some abandoned war surplus on Treasure Island by San Fran to go scope out...​
     
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  10. dalalsid

    dalalsid Member

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    Here is an update:

    Screen Shot 2017-02-17 at 3.47.46 PM.png

    Tesla is our largest investment also and also a big part of our sons very tiny trust fund based on gifts from grandparents. I initially bought a very small position at 25$ and have kept adding. Our house is recently net-zero and we hope to be all electric cars by the end of the decade - currently we are ~80% of miles in an EV. I hope all this is a message to our child.

    http://demo.chartiq.com/widgets/2.0/portal2-dark.html?page=chart
     
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  11. vgrinshpun

    vgrinshpun Supporting Member

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    This is one of the few instances for which I will recall fishy smell with fondness...
     
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  12. geneclean55

    geneclean55 Active Member

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    So up day on Mon.... oops Tuesday? Or will earnings week muddy the usual start of week exuberance
     
  13. MitchJi

    MitchJi Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness

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    IMO the ER doesn't have to hit-it-out-of-the-park to be a positive catalyst. I believe that if it shows that the financial results from the MS-MX were not a fluke, that production is going well (I don't believe that the miss due to the AP switch will matter), that SCTY isn't a huge cash drain, and that they are using capital efficiently enough that they can get to the M3 ramp that will be enough.

    I think there's a good chance that between the market having unrealistically negative beliefs about SCTY and the fact that TE is currently valued at zero, that a small net income from TE and SCTY, hopefully with some optimistic guidance for 2017, would be sufficient to have a positive impact. I think that that's pretty much in the bag.

    Anything positive about the M3 could potentially have a big impact on on the SP, $290-325 or more depending of the specifics of the information. I think that's about 50-50.

    I believe that if the SP hits $280-300 that Tesla will do a cap raise, which I don't believe will have a negative impact on the SP, when it happens. When it's announced it probably will have a negative impact. I don't believe that they will announce that on the call.
     
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  14. Irishjugg

    Irishjugg Member

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    #2314 Irishjugg, Feb 17, 2017
    Last edited: Feb 17, 2017
    Sure, I was pointing out that they will obviously have income from their recurring revenues on the PPAs that they haven't sold yet as well. I'm sure you know but I notice you left that out.
     
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  15. Waiting4M3

    Waiting4M3 Active Member

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    What is your definition of something positive about the M3?

    IMO the break-even point is if they announce M3 Pt3 date around March end or early Apr. More details on a sizable pre-production build or earlier pt3 date would be positives that canget us past ATH. Less than impressive # of pre-production build, or slightly later pt3 date (May?) will be a negative, I think we go back to $240-250s. If no word on M3, or word of significant delays (multiple months), then a significant negative, we dive down toward $200s. I personally don't think the last scenario will happen, but am fully preparing myself for the $240-250 scenario.
     
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  16. Nate the Great

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    The last one was q3 which had positive earnings. The recently announced merger with solarcity sucked the air out of the market.
     
  17. Nate the Great

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    I too believe that there will be a smalll pullback after earnings. The second showing of the m3 will get us back up to the 280-290 range end of march.
     
  18. Fallenone

    Fallenone Active Member

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    I think the current price level is already pricing in a not-too-bad ER plus pilot production of Model 3 (after hours jumped with a gap up day followed after Reuters news on Feb 20 pilot production).

    So we do need a hit-it-out-of-the-park to break above ATH. And I'm not confident we will have that ER next week.
     
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  19. Skryll

    Skryll Member

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    Does it price in revenue from Tesla Energy though... Also when we were at an ATH back then, that was just based on the prospect of Model S and Model X without Tesla Energy, in a climate that was less friendly to electric car driving. Now people start waking up because it is the big automakers that also say they will go electric.

    I am still hoping for that short squeeze this year :)
     
  20. Fallenone

    Fallenone Active Member

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    TE is negligible to be priced in now. As I laid out a few weeks ago, even the largest, most visible project TE so far had, the SCE project, is bringing no more than something like 50 Model S/X in terms of gross profit. No more than a rounding error to this ER.
     
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