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Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by AudubonB, Dec 30, 2016.
No, the market is closed for Presidents' Day.
Tuesday's likely to be interesting though - with the usual start-of-week bump on top of earnings activity, could be interesting.
Maybe, only problem is market is closed so we will miss it lol.
Just picked up some shares at $265 at opening and flipped at $270, thanks to some people who forgot about the big picture
Interest rate dropped.
Fidelity 292,371 1.750 %
Is that the tractor beam coming in? I'm feeling some pull...
Looks like we got some duelling tractor beams?
We're gonna close above 270 and that's a good close.
Enough playing day trader, I'm going back to industrial junk trading.... I hear there's some abandoned war surplus on Treasure Island by San Fran to go scope out...
Here is an update:
Tesla is our largest investment also and also a big part of our sons very tiny trust fund based on gifts from grandparents. I initially bought a very small position at 25$ and have kept adding. Our house is recently net-zero and we hope to be all electric cars by the end of the decade - currently we are ~80% of miles in an EV. I hope all this is a message to our child.
This is one of the few instances for which I will recall fishy smell with fondness...
So up day on Mon.... oops Tuesday? Or will earnings week muddy the usual start of week exuberance
IMO the ER doesn't have to hit-it-out-of-the-park to be a positive catalyst. I believe that if it shows that the financial results from the MS-MX were not a fluke, that production is going well (I don't believe that the miss due to the AP switch will matter), that SCTY isn't a huge cash drain, and that they are using capital efficiently enough that they can get to the M3 ramp that will be enough.
I think there's a good chance that between the market having unrealistically negative beliefs about SCTY and the fact that TE is currently valued at zero, that a small net income from TE and SCTY, hopefully with some optimistic guidance for 2017, would be sufficient to have a positive impact. I think that that's pretty much in the bag.
Anything positive about the M3 could potentially have a big impact on on the SP, $290-325 or more depending of the specifics of the information. I think that's about 50-50.
I believe that if the SP hits $280-300 that Tesla will do a cap raise, which I don't believe will have a negative impact on the SP, when it happens. When it's announced it probably will have a negative impact. I don't believe that they will announce that on the call.
Sure, I was pointing out that they will obviously have income from their recurring revenues on the PPAs that they haven't sold yet as well. I'm sure you know but I notice you left that out.
What is your definition of something positive about the M3?
IMO the break-even point is if they announce M3 Pt3 date around March end or early Apr. More details on a sizable pre-production build or earlier pt3 date would be positives that canget us past ATH. Less than impressive # of pre-production build, or slightly later pt3 date (May?) will be a negative, I think we go back to $240-250s. If no word on M3, or word of significant delays (multiple months), then a significant negative, we dive down toward $200s. I personally don't think the last scenario will happen, but am fully preparing myself for the $240-250 scenario.
The last one was q3 which had positive earnings. The recently announced merger with solarcity sucked the air out of the market.
I too believe that there will be a smalll pullback after earnings. The second showing of the m3 will get us back up to the 280-290 range end of march.
I think the current price level is already pricing in a not-too-bad ER plus pilot production of Model 3 (after hours jumped with a gap up day followed after Reuters news on Feb 20 pilot production).
So we do need a hit-it-out-of-the-park to break above ATH. And I'm not confident we will have that ER next week.
Does it price in revenue from Tesla Energy though... Also when we were at an ATH back then, that was just based on the prospect of Model S and Model X without Tesla Energy, in a climate that was less friendly to electric car driving. Now people start waking up because it is the big automakers that also say they will go electric.
I am still hoping for that short squeeze this year
TE is negligible to be priced in now. As I laid out a few weeks ago, even the largest, most visible project TE so far had, the SCE project, is bringing no more than something like 50 Model S/X in terms of gross profit. No more than a rounding error to this ER.