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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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dennis

P85D
Jul 26, 2012
1,942
4,865
Silicon Valley CA
Perhaps with the slight delay in M3, they are going to pull in the refresh to spur end of year sales? I know they want to stay on a high growth rate path for YoY deliveries.
Given the need to plan and execute months in advance the changes to the supply chain necessary to introduce new hardware, Tesla can't "pull in" (or delay) the refresh.
 

NicoV

Supporting Member
Jan 10, 2016
1,896
16,447
Zulte, Belgium
First, for now, I've fixed the problem with the links not working.

I have no idea what's going on with inventory, really. Other than it seems like a lot of people are involved, and it's not very coordinated and/or methodical.

For instance, tonight Tesla has changed their website so if you are using a security plug-in to block all http referrers from being sent (like what Privacy Badger does for instance), their web site breaks. That's even unrelated to https://ev-cpo.com !!

I guess they don't want anyone, anywhere linking to their website that also doesn't send http referrer, which is a really bad idea and has been discouraged for a decade or now, since it's such a weak tool.

They just want to prevent scrapers to scrape the site, and are now trying every trick to distinguish real people from bots. Next thing they’ll add a captcha (been there done that).
 
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brian45011

Active Member
Apr 28, 2011
2,016
6,284
Panasonic CEO says could soon increase output at Tesla's gigafactory battery plant
BY Reuters
— 4:23 AM ET 10/31/2017

TOKYO, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Panasonic Corp (PCRFF) Chief Executive Kazuhiro Tsuga said on Tuesday that output could soon be increased at Tesla Inc's (TSLA) "gigafactory" battery plant as the causes of production bottlenecks for Tesla's Model 3 are now understood.

Luxury electric vehicle maker Tesla said early this month that "production bottlenecks" had left the company behind its planned ramp-up for the new Model 3 mass-market sedan.

The plant is operated jointly by Panasonic (PCRFF) and Tesla. Panasonic (PCRFF) produces battery cells for Tesla's electric vehicles, while Tesla makes battery packs using the cells. (Reporting by Makiko Yamazaki; Editing by Christopher Cushing)
 

brian45011

Active Member
Apr 28, 2011
2,016
6,284
So that customers don't feel cheated? Or they probably have just enough inventory to use them as service loaners and now.. wait for it..Tesla ranger service cars/SUVs :)

Mcneill said in Holland recently that Tesla had figured out how to use Xs and even Ss to replace the ICE mobile service vans (poor optics sending an ICE vehicle to repair an EV.) Probably could convert the ICE vans to solar roof/powerwall delivery service. Elon Musk Was Wrong About Self-Driving Teslas ( at about 8:00 of the video)
 

SPadival

Active Member
May 7, 2016
1,004
9,186
Texas Terafactory
TOKYO, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Panasonic Corp (PCRFF) Chief Executive Kazuhiro Tsuga said on Tuesday that output could soon be increased at Tesla Inc's (TSLA) "gigafactory" battery plant as the causes of production bottlenecks for Tesla's Model 3 are now understood.
Very bare bones statement there. Is he admitting there were bottlenecks with the battery production?
 

brian45011

Active Member
Apr 28, 2011
2,016
6,284
Very bare bones statement there. Is he admitting there were bottlenecks with the battery production?

I interpret it that way. Clearly their have been hiccups in bringing the GF into commercial operation: Samsung cells used in SA; Kelty (and O'Connor?) suddenly leaving [both were instrumental in the GF's inception]; Elon enjoying refreshments on the roof; etc.

Who knows if the "bottlenecks" were a materially contributing cause of the lower than expected M3 deliveries in Q3?
 

avoigt

Active Member
Sep 5, 2017
2,803
38,375
Germany
I interpret it that way. Clearly their have been hiccups in bringing the GF into commercial operation: Samsung cells used in SA; Kelty (and O'Connor?) suddenly leaving [both were instrumental in the GF's inception]; Elon enjoying refreshments on the roof; etc.

Who knows if the "bottlenecks" were a materially contributing cause of the lower than expected M3 deliveries in Q3?

I believe the message is clear in that way that they reduced the output of Batteries for M3 due to production bottlenecks and they are ready to increase. If the bottleneck would be at the GF he would not have called it "production bottlenecks for Tesla's Model 3" but "production bottlenecks for Batteries"

But the really important piece of information is that they had challenges to understand the issue and that they found it now which makes them confident to increase production rates soon.

I call this good news. We will learn more tonight .... and in the Q&A they Analysts will try to squeeze all information out of Elon... that will be fun to listen to.
 

Lessmog

Active Member
Aug 24, 2013
2,655
6,680
Smögen
I believe the message is clear in that way that they reduced the output of Batteries for M3 due to production bottlenecks and they are ready to increase. If the bottleneck would be at the GF he would not have called it "production bottlenecks for Tesla's Model 3" but "production bottlenecks for Batteries"

But the really important piece of information is that they had challenges to understand the issue and that they found it now which makes them confident to increase production rates soon.

I call this good news. We will learn more tonight .... and in the Q&A they Analysts will try to squeeze all information out of Elon... that will be fun to listen to.
I agree and eagerly antecipate the ER. Just a small but important detail: It's tomorrow.

Event Reminder
Tesla Motors, Inc. Third Quarter 2017 Financial Results Q&A Conference Call
11/1/2017 2:30:00 PM PT
View Event Details
 

AlMc

'When the music is on...you gotta dance' (Go Elon)
Apr 23, 2013
7,346
15,494
Delaware
I read it a little differently. I believe he is saying that Panasonic can increase battery production as bottleneck(s) with production of the model 3 are resolved.
If I put this all together: There is a bottleneck, EM goes to the GF (indicating the current bottleneck is there), one problem was welds with the battery pack, Panasonic's statement (basically saying they will up production as the bottleneck is resolved) and issues Q2 with 100bat production: I come up with my best WAG (not so 'WA' IMO) that the bottleneck is/was pack production.
 

jbcarioca

Well-Known Member
Feb 3, 2015
5,170
24,379
Panasonic CEO says could soon increase output at Tesla's gigafactory battery plant
BY Reuters
— 4:23 AM ET 10/31/2017

TOKYO, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Panasonic Corp (PCRFF) Chief Executive Kazuhiro Tsuga said on Tuesday that output could soon be increased at Tesla Inc's (TSLA) "gigafactory" battery plant as the causes of production bottlenecks for Tesla's Model 3 are now understood.

Luxury electric vehicle maker Tesla said early this month that "production bottlenecks" had left the company behind its planned ramp-up for the new Model 3 mass-market sedan.

The plant is operated jointly by Panasonic (PCRFF) and Tesla. Panasonic (PCRFF) produces battery cells for Tesla's electric vehicles, while Tesla makes battery packs using the cells. (Reporting by Makiko Yamazaki; Editing by Christopher Cushing)
These comments were made, it seems, in connection with the quarterly reporting by Panasonic.
Consolidated Financial Results for Second Quarter and Six Months ended September 30, 2017 | Headquarters News | Panasonic Newsroom Global
The results show somewhat lower growth than was expected, and slower ramp at the GF appears to be a material part of that. Thus, the slightly cryptic statement that remains ambiguous about precisely what has caused the lower ramp.
Since in other reporting the pack assembly process has been implicated in that deficiency, as has been power supply problems, we really do not know in detail. We are given enough information for speculation.

On balance it seems they (whoever 'they' are) have identified the root causes for the problems. If so, very fast rampup is probably happening now since, once identified, problems are often fast to solve. That summarizes many posts by many people. Thus, I may be incorrect.

Still, I think we have very good news. We're about to find out much higher production rates are happening already. We'll probably hear about this tomorrow.
I hope I'm right in these conclusions.
If so, I'm good at reading tea leaves.
If not, I'm a clueless fanboy.
 

Waiting4M3

Active Member
Apr 13, 2016
3,328
12,066
San Jose, California
Update: “This process (for battery packs) will be soon automated, and then the number of vehicles to be produced will rise sharply,” Tsuga said. He declined to comment to what extent Model 3 production would be behind its targeted schedule.

Tesla Model 3 Bottleneck Now Understood, Production Could Increase Soon

Great news indeed....
Seems like good news to me as well, but we need to read a little more into this. I see 3 things to consider if anyone want to make short term bets based on this:

1) If Panasonic is saying that cell production could soon increase, it means it has not increased yet. From cells to packs, including the aging process, I imagine that is a few weeks, then from packs to cars, that's another few weeks. If I were to trust this on face value, then it may take several more weeks for this to propagate to M3 delivery.

2) Tesla may not have told Panasonic everything about the M3 bottleneck, so there is risk of other unknowns still delaying M3 ramp. If Elon comes out tomorrow pumping his chest and says design studio opens by such and such date, I would feel more confident.

3) Panasonic is saying this to appease their investors of a slower than expected quarter. From their perspective, if they can raise the production in a few weeks or several weeks, as long as things look good by the next quarter, they will be fine, but this may not translate to an immediate uptick in M3 delivery.

So in summary I think while it's good news for sure, the details on timing seems very "soft", and not much to go on if we're looking for short term improvement in M3 delivery.

Edit: I think it does significantly increase the likelihood that mass M3 delivery will be happening by Dec or Jan timeframe.
 
Last edited:

zdriver

Member
Jul 18, 2016
415
2,563
WI
1) If Panasonic is saying that cell production could soon increase, it means it has not increased yet. From cells to packs, including the aging process, I imagine that is a few weeks, then from packs to cars, that's another few weeks. If I were to trust this on face value, then it may take several more weeks for this to propagate to M3 delivery.

Aging process is 2 weeks, but I don't see why Panasonic couldn't keep running production until all the aging racks are full...
 

Waiting4M3

Active Member
Apr 13, 2016
3,328
12,066
San Jose, California
Surprised we haven't seen more of a reaction to the Panasonic announcement yet. Converted a few more shares to J19 LEAPs earlier this morning.
If the street doesn't believe in Tesla's own PR from Oct 3rd that "the bottlenecks will be solved in short term", why would they take more stock in what Panasonic just said? Panasonic basically just said the same thing.
 
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