2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[zdriver]

So what's you projection of when this cell production rise propagates to M3 delivery?

Sounds like it isn't a cell production bottleneck, but pack assembly. As I understand, that's what Elon was at GF1 for when he was camping on the roof. If we take into account the tiny trickle of 3's lately, that makes more sense than cell production.

Assuming that's the case, who knows what the timeline will be, but when it's fixed, I wouldn't be surprised to see a sudden flood of new 3's. If there was any work still needed on the Fremont line while this was happening, I doubt people there were sitting still.

 

[SteveG3]

Seems like good news to me as well, but we need to read a little more into this. I see 3 things to consider if anyone want to make short term bets based on this:

1) If Panasonic is saying that cell production could soon increase, it means it has not increased yet. From cells to packs, including the aging process, I imagine that is a few weeks, then from packs to cars, that's another few weeks. If I were to trust this on face value, then it may take several more weeks for this to propagate to M3 delivery.

2) Tesla may not have told Panasonic everything about the M3 bottleneck, so there is risk of other unknowns still delaying M3 ramp. If Elon comes out tomorrow pumping his chest and says design studio opens by such and such date, I would feel more confident.

3) Panasonic is saying this to appease their investors of a slower than expected quarter. From their perspective, if they can raise the production in a few weeks or several weeks, as long as things look good by the next quarter, they will be fine, but this may not translate to an immediate uptick in M3 delivery.

So in summary I think while it's good news for sure, the details on timing seems very "soft", and not much to go on if we're looking for short term improvement in M3 delivery.

Edit: I think it does significantly increase the likelihood that mass M3 delivery will be happening by Dec or Jan timeframe.

I moved up my prices on trading share orders to add a second helping here at $322 to the one I took last week.

Your points could effect those using options, but for trading shares, it’s not of any real consequence to me whether the market fully absorbs this in days weeks or months. As to point 2 that you wrote, I expect something else to be the new bottleneck when production is relieved from the constraint Panasonic mentioned (and more bottlenecks in the rest of the ramp), but my read is the improvement Pano referred to will likely mean a nice step forward in the ramp.

I’m not saying we won’t swing wildly tomorrow... we could see + or - $20, we could see + and - $20. My point is I’ve positioned things more so to act with trading shares in the $300s and less so in the $200s. I see the latter opportunity as less probable now.

Just for clarity, these are trading shares. My position for over 5 years has been long-term bullish, and my letting my core position grow from 20-25% of my net worth to about 70% as TSLA has risen reflects that. I don’t sell in these selloffs, I buy : )

So, my “not advice” is to move up somewhat ones schedule for adding shares given Panosonic’s statements.

 

[EinSV]

If the street doesn't believe in Tesla's own PR from Oct 3rd that "the bottlenecks will be solved in short term", why would they take more stock in what Panasonic just said? Panasonic basically just said the same thing.

Because it's Panasonic and they tend to be conservative AFAIK.

 

[SteveG3]

Surprised we haven't seen more of a reaction to the Panasonic announcement yet. Converted a few more shares to J19 LEAPs earlier this morning.

I think it’s a combo of most market participants not having the background to give them the confidence to move without delay/seeing “oh, people are seeing it as I’m seeing it” and FUD’s partner... muting coverage of positive events in much of the media. Does it really make sense that one guy making a video about his Model S having a string of minor issues gets more media coverage than we’ve seen so far on the Panosonic comments?

 

[Waiting4M3]

I think it’s a combo of most market participants not having the background to give them the confidence to move without delay/seeing “oh, people are seeing it as I’m seeing it” and FUD’s partner... muting coverage of positive events in much of the media. Does it really make sense that one guy making a video about his Model S having a string of minor issues gets more media coverage than we’ve seen so far on the Panosonic comments?

Close to $326 now. I'd prefer it stay down till after the ER. It seems more often than not, pre-ER moves are head fakes.

 

[bdy0627]

$328+ now. Getting somewhere. I'm sure there will be quite a few shorts covering prior to tomorrow's close due to the definite possibility of a gap up after the ER based upon news of the Model 3 ramp + 4Q guidance. I'm tempted to shift some J19s to MAR/APR/JUN calls but holding off for now. It's a total guess what the stock will do between now and Friday but I have a pretty good idea it will go up, possibly a lot, between now and March.

 

[dc_h]

Close to $326 now. I'd prefer it stay down till after the ER. It seems more often than not, pre-ER moves are head fakes.

Ironically I was reading some twitter short hoping for a pop to sell calls against. I would prefer the ride to come after earnings.

 

[D-egg-O]

Will we break $330 today?

 

[Intl Professor]

Always nice to see an upward dual between TSLA and BIDU for highest percentage gain. Now 60% of portfolio. (As usual, no dry powder.)

Edit: Must be a win-squared situation.

 

[SteveG3]

Will we break $340 today?

fixed that for you : )

 

[zdriver]

Will we break $331 today?

FTFY.


Yes.

 

[3Victoria]

Is this shorts covering before tomorrow? Or just buy on rumour?

 

[Intl Professor]

Is this shorts covering before tomorrow? Or just buy on rumour?

Only Papa knows.

 

[SteveG3]

Is this shorts covering before tomorrow? Or just buy on rumour?

I think it's 1)the downside tomorrow looking more and more limited given the comments from the supplier in Taiwan last week, Panasonic today, with a little added help from what the "8th circle of hell" Elon tweet and picture might mean in the background, and 2) traders (for the moment anyhow) seeing the trade as up rather than down. I suspect there are many traders agnostic on Tesla, but, quite fond of the volatility.

 

[larmor]

Because it's Panasonic and they tend to be conservative AFAIK.

Plus the market believes Panasonic can pivot from walkmans to batteries, where tesla pivoting from cars to energy is a huge leap of faith, bet, risk, etc.

 

[zdriver]

Is this shorts covering before tomorrow? Or just buy on rumour?

Likely covering. Seen some shenanigans on accumulators today, but they're mostly all over the place, but trending up. Says short covering to me, given circumstances.

 

[Navin]

Today’s gain can largely be attributed to the legion of ambulance chasing law firms realizing they would make more money if they just bought the damn stock.


Btw -this should help tesla.
Xi Tells Zuckerberg and Cook China's Set for 'Unprecedented' Reform

 

[Waiting4M3]

Today’s gain can largely be attributed to the legion of ambulance chasing law firms realizing they would make more money if they just bought the damn stock.


Btw -this should help tesla.
Xi Tells Zuckerberg and Cook China's Set for 'Unprecedented' Reform

Or maybe they're better off going after David Einhorn's fund.

 

[MitchJi]

I bring all this up to discuss a potential S & X refresh that could be around the corner, stimulate Q4 demand (as they've done in the past) and make us all rich if we see it coming first!

I don’t think it’ll make us rich, but I did see it coming:

Spent our last dry powder on a November 17 $325 call based the theories that:
2. I had the epiphany today that I think that Tesla is about to update the MS-MX, probably early next week. I loved the M3 video and I believe that the reason that Tesla hasn't wanted information about the M3 to get out is very because they were worried about canabalizing the MS-MX. They've removed the $1k referral at the end of the month. The only explanation I can think of is that they are introducing MS-MX upgrades at the beginning of November. I think that the interior wil get a huge upgrade designed by the Volvo interior hire. Possibly a HUD also.

And I added that new packs using 2170’s produced inn Japan are also possible.

New packs with faster supercharging (matching the M3) and higher capacity using 2170's produced in Japan are also a possibility.

Panasonic says Gigafactory battery output to increase for Tesla's Model 3

Panasonic sees batteries as central to its plan to nearly double automotive business revenue to 2.5 trillion yen by the year through March 2022. To that end, it has been aggressively expanding battery production capacity globally.

It plans to start production this financial year ending March at a new plant in Dalian, China, and is adding production lines in Japan - steps that could allow it to reduce dependence on Tesla.

It sounds like to me like the new lines in Japan probably won’t be ready in time, but it’s probably coming soon.

 

[elasalle]

Not celebrating till tomorrow is over.