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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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Fifield

Member
Mar 20, 2017
44
239
Chicago
I like your chart.:)

Can you explain what assumptions/metrics are used to convert gross profit to the range of SPs in the chart (e.g., OpEx assumptions and P/E or other valuation metric). Thanks!

Thanks...it's probably laughable to anyone who does this sort of analysis for real, but it simply uses an even-weighted average and standard deviation of trailing and forward 12 month revenue- and gross-profit-to-market-cap multiples since 2/21/2013.

Forward revenue is determined by multiplying the previous quarter by (1 + growth rate) ^ 0.25
Forward gross profit equals 22.5% of revenue
Future shares outstanding expand from previous quarter by (1 + dilution rate) ^ 0.25

These give you what you need to find the average expected stock price per share, a*b/c. Add to this value a z-score multiplied by the standard deviation to determine the expected price per share at the given percentile.
 
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mmd

Banned
Jun 22, 2015
1,338
-2
San Jose, CA
If I were a skeptic, which I'm not, I'd read most of this as handwaving BS. Translated, I think it says:
- our ability to predict this ramp is awful
- we're now sure it will be at least three months late getting to 5,000/week but we don't really know
- we're not going to start working toward 10,000/week until we've reached 5000, so at best three months late
- but really, who knows?
- that 10,000/week target that used to be 100% for sure by end of 2018 is now whenever, but there's no telling

Yuck!

As I said earlier. there is zero reason for Tesla to ramp up M3 till the fed tax credit is in full swing. They are losing money head over heels selling $100k cars. Does it not make sense to sell $100k cars using the $7500 credit to lose less, vs. losing more by selling $50k cars? Then, there is the need for huge capex to reach that point, where they lose more money selling each car. 6-12 month delay pretty much kills the fed tax credit for whatever M3 buyers are left in the reservation list.

Two brave souls who took up my challenge on 2018 M3 vs. Leaf worldwide sales, @Yuri_G and @Fallenone , you can start counting your days on this forum. ;)

To my no see-um "toxic bull" members: My sympathies for your truckload of purchases the last few weeks.
 

stealthology

Member
Jan 24, 2013
467
642
Hawaii
6-12 month delay of Model 3? All indications point to a 3 month delay. They initially stated 5k Model 3's/week by end of this year and 10k/week sometime in 2018, which means the last week of 2018. Did you want them to say 10k/week in 2019?
 

Paracelsus

Member
Mar 27, 2015
796
7,630
Idaho
Seems that the 305-level that many estimated was the peak of the Tencent buying spree has provided good resistance. The MM’s aren’t yet driving this back into the territory where they would loose control of the shares through long term institutional buying like Tencent
 

tlo

Member
Dec 9, 2011
213
575
Screen Shot 2017-11-01 at 5.20.04 PM.png
 

CorneliusXX

Active Member
Jun 19, 2015
2,106
16,592
London
5K/wk target is now late Q1 vs Dec, so ~3 months delay. Question is what will Nov/Dec deliver? There is a lot to be read into the following statements

"We expect Model 3 non-GAAP gross margin to reach breakeven by end of Q4, because of increased capacity utilization, and it should improve rapidly in 2018 to our target of 25%"

"Due to a higher mix of temporarily lower margin Model 3 deliveries in Q4 compared to Q3, we expect non-GAAP automotive gross margin to temporarily decline slightly in Q4 to about 15% and then recover starting in Q1"
EM expect's a 3 month delay....and we know he is always at least 3 months late.
 

neroden

Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan
Apr 25, 2011
14,676
62,627
Ithaca, NY, USA
I've been trolling here for quite a while. Been hesitant to post while I held a short position. Haha.

I'm a retired software exec and right now I run my own money. I have a small shop with 2 analysts. We use and interesting combination of technical analysis and sentiment data we mine and process from the web.

The sentiment had gotten so bad we covered our short yesterday when the 200 day held. Got in a half position at 325 today. Will add another half position once we get a close over the 100 day. Hard stop at 310 for Thursday. Looking for 475 sometime in Q2.

Would have really liked to have seen 290 before today just too get as many folks trapped as possible, but there is still enough short interest to push this to ATH by year end. Right now Tesla isn't a tech company, it isn't an energy company, it is just a Model 3 company. Results form the quarter won't matter good or bad. Just a little reassurance production is on track and its back to the races.

Longer term (24-36 months) I do think the common gets wiped out, but not for the reasons any of the bears think.

GLTA

OK, you cannot leave that line hanging. What reason do you think TSLA common "gets wiped out" in 24 to 36 months? Since it isn't a reason "any of the bears" think?
 

theschnell

Member
Oct 27, 2014
840
3,139
Calhoun, GA
I recall Elon being very hesitant on his prediction for numbers on the ramp. He said it was very difficult to predict.

I had a significant chunk set aside for TSLA that I kept being tempted to put in, but I kept saying to myself "Wait until after Q3 report". Glad I did. I'll be buying in the next few days. Either in the $280 neighborhood or after significant reversal off approx $300 area.
 
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