I like your chart.
Can you explain what assumptions/metrics are used to convert gross profit to the range of SPs in the chart (e.g., OpEx assumptions and P/E or other valuation metric). Thanks!
If I were a skeptic, which I'm not, I'd read most of this as handwaving BS. Translated, I think it says:
- our ability to predict this ramp is awful
- we're now sure it will be at least three months late getting to 5,000/week but we don't really know
- we're not going to start working toward 10,000/week until we've reached 5000, so at best three months late
- but really, who knows?
- that 10,000/week target that used to be 100% for sure by end of 2018 is now whenever, but there's no telling
EM expect's a 3 month delay....and we know he is always at least 3 months late.5K/wk target is now late Q1 vs Dec, so ~3 months delay. Question is what will Nov/Dec deliver? There is a lot to be read into the following statements
"We expect Model 3 non-GAAP gross margin to reach breakeven by end of Q4, because of increased capacity utilization, and it should improve rapidly in 2018 to our target of 25%"
"Due to a higher mix of temporarily lower margin Model 3 deliveries in Q4 compared to Q3, we expect non-GAAP automotive gross margin to temporarily decline slightly in Q4 to about 15% and then recover starting in Q1"
EM expect's a 3 month delay....and we know he is always at least 3 months late.
I've been trolling here for quite a while. Been hesitant to post while I held a short position. Haha.
I'm a retired software exec and right now I run my own money. I have a small shop with 2 analysts. We use and interesting combination of technical analysis and sentiment data we mine and process from the web.
The sentiment had gotten so bad we covered our short yesterday when the 200 day held. Got in a half position at 325 today. Will add another half position once we get a close over the 100 day. Hard stop at 310 for Thursday. Looking for 475 sometime in Q2.
Would have really liked to have seen 290 before today just too get as many folks trapped as possible, but there is still enough short interest to push this to ATH by year end. Right now Tesla isn't a tech company, it isn't an energy company, it is just a Model 3 company. Results form the quarter won't matter good or bad. Just a little reassurance production is on track and its back to the races.
Longer term (24-36 months) I do think the common gets wiped out, but not for the reasons any of the bears think.