2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[electracity]

I see the optimism happening again today.

Ya think? The reality is that Tesla may double total unit production in 2018 YOY. That's pretty good for a manufacturing company. Repeat that in 2019.

The problem is that this growth doesn't work for SP or any rational evaluation of ROI. So its time to shift gears and talk about Tesla's lead in autonomous driving.

I going optimistic and predicting that Tesla will sell 250,000 total vehicles in 2018. They will need to have some good luck to pull it off.

 

[myusername]

Sigh.


Apparently your not familiar with the term "morning dip"

the problem with the term "morning dip" is that it's not accurate in any way... it was coined after a number of people would noticed a pattern they were interested in and that fit their narrative of "shorts manipulating TSLA"... but failed to recognize that it was actually not common... and certainly not as common as the pre-market boost in the SP... which then resulted in the "morning dip".

 

[avoigt]

Not much has happened. In 6 months from now we will all look back and say that yesterday was a non event.

Most people seem to forget that EM was in the Q2 call very clear that the S curve is hard to predict and impossible to give a timeline that they can commit to. The same is still true and will be until they have solved the issues from now into 2018.

- M3 delay - we did know this already hence no surprise
- GM reduction - they told us in the last call that it will happen
- Cash burn - with the M3 delay it was easy to predict that more cash will be needed

On the positive side:

- Demand is increasing significantly for M,X,3 in all markets - I love to hear that - This is key!
- Guidance for GM in the mid 20ths- great, confirmed again
- No new capital raise expected - dependent on no further M3 delay I would add
- China Factory confirmed with a few thousand M3s in 2019 - big deal!
- AP making big steps ahead - have seen many positive feedback and videos on the .42 with confirms that

Management works through the bottlenecks one by one and will solve it one by one. On the long run as they said in the call the delayed units are a minor amount as even if a few thousand slip its not a lot versus annual production. In the short term it will hurt people particularly the ones expecting to get their car in 2017 but the more you look in the future the less the impact will be until it vanishes completely. Example: My delivery date was end of 2018 and its still end of 2018.

Forward looking:

- Wonder if they can still make the 500k run rate and rather assume that we have to adjust guidance for M3 in 2018
- With M3 ramping up in Q1 and Q2 we will see improved GM, Revenue and reduced cash burn
- All depends if they can fix the production issues in Q1 if not we face a different situation
- Positive news expected in 2 weeks at the Semi event, still expect them to show something unexpected
- Q4 may still look negative but after that results should improve continuously from there

Final take: Tesla is on the right path. For investors: this are the times where you earn your money - disregard your emotions and the press and look at the historic disruption that we all experience.

 

[Irishjugg]

Laugh it up. We'll see how next year pans out.

Hey, let him have this one, he's looked like a blathering idiot like 90% of the time here, he deserves to feel validated on a dip even if it's one many here saw coming.

 

[DurandalAI]

For every person on the list bailing, there will be many more trying to get on it. Demand will not be a problem ... production will be an ongoing problem.

While I agree as a whole, I think Tesla should allow people to convert their deposit to a non-refundable deposit in order to be given priority over those who maintain a refundable status. If they use that to speed things along, I’m all for it, and I would convert mine today, even after the revealed delays. (Maybe now even more so.)

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Al, this strikes me as really gloomy. $400 by the end of 2018? When we already hit $380 twice earlier this year? I find this hard to believe. Why don't you expect more by the end of 2018?

Because his primary concern is not to make actual price predictions, but to set expectations low. A lot of the regulars here are first and foremost concerned more about others losing their shirts via short-term options and/or causing a long liquidation similar to February of 2016. This is similar to why many economists/pundits predict a recession every year, since one can never be crucified for being too conservative, but the opposite is emotionally significantly more tolling, even though mathematically being too conservative is just as harmful to return rates as being too optimistic. If you remember, I think at/after 1Q17 earnings release Al sold some shares or bought puts, which turned out to be the wrong move as SP ran up to $380, but no one ever brings that up while he frequently lumps me in with the FUDsters.

 

[Irishjugg]

at what point does never providing guidance and only providing completely over hyped estimates to raise cash cross the line?

Never, this guidance culture on the street if under promise over deliver, guess months in advance just to give analysts some quotes for their crappy letters has always been pure.

 

[Irishjugg]

Tesla Semi won't bring stocks up. Masive production and superb monthly sales brings stock up. The conference call is insanely bad. He is unprepared, keep repeating the same sentence, failed to answered questions with full confidence. His intro sentence about building 250,000 cars since inception sounded full of confidence. that is great news, but we already knew that (we just add up all the deliveries year after year.) and it won't help stocks.

Your lack of experience with Tesla and grasp of the business is ADORABLE

 

[myusername]

Never, this guidance culture on the street if under promise over deliver, guess months in advance just to give analysts some quotes for their crappy letters has always been pure.

understood... but think about what those bond purchasers were told during the dog-and-pony show just 3 months ago... do you think this is what they had in mind for their 90 days later?

 

[myusername]

a massive flood of volume is about to hit this stock on the open... attempting to hold the price up.

 

[Lhan]

10 more at 300

 

[elasalle]

a massive flood of volume is about to hit this stock on the open... attempting to hold the price up.

You mean "Buy the Dip"

 

[Richgoogol]

Damn bought 100 shs @ 300.01 to test water.. should have bought way more

 

[Lhan]

MMD = Morning Micro dip.

 

[gene]

Damn bought 100 shs @ 300.01 to test water.. should have bought way more

Me, the same, but 120 shares.

 

[DurandalAI]

Man I wish I had some dry powder to back the truck up. I suppose I could sell one of my old ICE vehicles I keep as backup and buy a few shares... I guess that’s what I get for bumping up my traditional pre-tax retirement savings up 8%. The thing that kills me about those funds is they’re all managed mutual funds. I guess I could open up an IRA instead... I should probably carry that conversation to a different thread, though.

 

[DragonWatch]

While some are like brick walls when it comes to conversing, there is also filtering. Been there, done that.

First, the evening before my Tesla plant tour on the 26th of September, I was told by an employee while charging my X ~ not my wife, that Tesla was receiving world wide plus or minus 1,000 orders a day. Now, if you re-read the 3Q17 update, 2d page, while no numbers Tesla is telling you something along that line. As @RobStark pointed out above, the auto manufacturing competes keep on hand (stock) for about six months. What I do not hear are those same manufactures complaing that they cannot keep up with pent-up demand.

Second, in the 3Q17 document did you gloss over the tested run rates (1,000) and burst rate (500). Those comments, like the YouTube video of the stamping machine are Tesla’s way of demonstrating the long-term production capability. Remember, again from my tour, that I was wondering if the tours were scheduled during lunch times. Clearly, it was the bottleneck issues that were causing the downtime. Had I seen any of these events like the runtime or burst rate, my reporting back might have been a bit more exciting. Bottom line Tesla told you several lines were at the ready in the 3Q17 update.

The fact that Elon is sleeping on the roof of the GF tells me, no not that he is on top of the issue, but that he is on the front line. Tactically speaking from a historical perspective, Generals that lost battles camped to the rear (way back) and solely relied on the forward officers to make their decisions. They wanted to play it safe.

That is just my current perspective. Having lived through hell a number of times, my tolerance for pain is a bit higher (okay, not all pain). Also, looking back over Tesla’s history I doubt that anyone of the current auto manufacturers could withstand the attacks and frustrations this car company has endured and will endure for years to come. I cannot speak, nor do I want to speak, for the SP manipulators. But, I will say “Rudolph (Tesla) with your nose so bright, won’t you come out to play,” with us I am tired of the hoofnmouth discussions, we have the facts, as good as it gets, now buck-up and let’s go save the world. “when the going gets tough, the tough get going,” that was the quote as you left the boys high school locker room.

 

[Reciprocity]

Really good opportunity here for Shorts to continue the trend of selling low and buying high. Longs on the other hand.. just buy the F**king dip like usual.

 

[mongo]

Really good opportunity here for Shorts to continue the trend of selling low and buying high. Longs on the other hand.. just buy the F**king dip like usual.

But when is the dip at open and when is it later??? Oh well, picked up another few during second drop. Thanks to wife, I didn't do it Tuesday,

 

[bdy0627]

I'm tempted to add right now but I'm just going to sit tight for a bit. I think we likely drift down over the next week or so. If I'm wrong, no problem. I've got plenty right now and I'll be glad we didn't go down further. If I'm right, I'll add some more then.