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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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mongo

Well-Known Member
May 3, 2017
13,034
39,249
Michigan
I dont see what you dont understand, just buy the F**king dip, ok? Its really easy. When a dip happens, just buy the F**king dip. And if your a bear, just short the F**king dip.

Woah, I was jesting in my triple '?' due to my wish for prognostication, no offense meant. Or did you forget a :),;), :p, or :D?
 

ggr

Expert in Dunning-Kruger Effect!
Mar 24, 2011
6,983
27,545
San Diego, CA
Mission E from Porsche is a great looking car with long range and fast charging. Not expected until 2019 and while likely to beat the current Model S on handling, does not compete on interior cargo or people space. Interior looks extremely cramped compared to Model S. Plus, by 2019 Tesla may upgrade the P version of Model S to where it still outperforms the Mission E. That said, I expect Porsche will sell as many Mission E's as they care to build, but it will hardly dent the Model S sales, and will have zero effect on the Model 3 sales and hopefully by then Model Y sales, although Model Y admittedly may not come until 2020 the way things are looking.
I hate to break it to you, but the Performance (both S and X) already outperform the Mission E in 0-100km/h.
 

mongo

Well-Known Member
May 3, 2017
13,034
39,249
Michigan
I assumed you knew I was joking as well.. No I wasnt joking, buy the F**king already.:eek::p:rolleyes:o_O <- I have no idea how to use these things, am I doing this right.

Oh I bought, wasn't quite the dip, but at this point, integer number of share differences are wildly different price points.
 

Krugerrand

Enough of the 🐩, back to 🐈‍⬛
Jul 13, 2012
11,080
56,839
Tesla friendly place
Model 3 SR changed from Jan to Mar to "Early 2018" for me as well. Man that is sure vague. I will assume it means June 30 or sooner o_O

Yep, expect vague from now on based on the continued complaining from certain people for Elon/Tesla missing aggressive, best guess timelines and dates. I expect to never hear another peep out of them now that we get vagueness. (Yeah, that’s molasses-like sarcasm. In truth they’ll now complain about the lack of transparency about timelines and dates.)
 
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bdy0627

Active Member
May 19, 2015
3,505
12,087
Appleton, WI
I shouldn't have looked, but the current candle on the daily chart looks like a missile shooting down with a long plume behind it. That is ugly!
 

MitchJi

Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Jun 1, 2015
3,975
8,907
Marin County, CA
$328+ now. Getting somewhere. I'm sure there will be quite a few shorts covering prior to tomorrow's close due to the definite possibility of a gap up after the ER based upon news of the Model 3 ramp + 4Q guidance. I'm tempted to shift some J19s to MAR/APR/JUN calls but holding off for now. It's a total guess what the stock will do between now and Friday but I have a pretty good idea it will go up, possibly a lot, between now and March.
If you shift substantial portions of your portfolio based on “having a pretty good idea” it will probably bite you eventually. That applies to both decreasing the time remaining and to increasing the strike prices. I bought a lot of J18’s $220’s when the SP was $160 and $170. When Tesla announced that they were pulling the M3 production ahead and the SP decreased I thought that was backwards. How could they possibly miss it badly enough to be in worse shape than not trying? So I rolled my $220’s to $280’s. Before I did that I considered all of the potential catalysts and thought that “the SP will probably go up by the spring of 2017”. Huge mistake! I could have easily gotten out of the $220’s profitably for most of the time I held them. So please be careful increasing your leverage on options to try to capture more money based on short term trading. I decided that my big mistake was doing that based on thinking that the SP would probably increase”. Now I believe that I should not even purchase more than a small lottery ticket play with options unless I am extremely confident that they will increase in value enough to make a substantial profit well before they expire.

Before you change your option strategy please ask yourself two questions:
1. Are you completely confident that the SP will increase enough 3-8 months before they expire to make this strategy profitable?

2. If you are so confident what has changed to increase your confidence that the options will be profitable before they expire? I said changed because if you were that confident why didn’t you have that additional leverage before?
 
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