2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[jackdillio]

Unforunately, a robot arm that was producing batteries at GF1 fell off. It will take months and months to repair.

EM is buying time to calm investors while he secretly sells TSLA stocks. Everyday there seems to be new conspiracies at Tesla corp headquarters

 

[neroden]

IMHO it really is all about getting to high Model 3 production rates at this point, and, barring leaks and spies, we have no real way to know exactly when they'll get to high rates. If you believe they'll *never* get to high rates, obviously, you would sell the stock. If you believe it'll take more than 12 months, you might sell the stock. I believe based on what I've read leaked that it'll be anywhere between 1 and 6 months.

So I'm sitting. No competitor will take the market over in that short a time period.

I believe that high production rates of Model 3 will be sufficient to make the financials look much better. So once they're at high production rates, the entire attitude of much of Wall Street towards the stock will change. We will probably still see negativity, but it becomes much less convincing to the "average trader".

 

[jackdillio]

With sentiment at its lowest since we broke above 300, I'd like to point out the following:

- Support at 300 has held so far. Below that, we have strong support at the 287 level which had been resistance for 3 years.
- Since Tesla went public, the stock price has never declined for more than 4 straight months. We are in month 4 now.
- In most years, a Santa Claus rally does indeed occur, especially in years where the markets have been up overall. So this is still in the cards.
- If the target for Model 3 production hitting 5000/week was initially end of December, and now it's end of March, we are now closer to 5000/week than we were on June 23 and almost as close as we were on Sept 18 (TSLA closed above 380 on both those dates).

There is no guarantee when it comes to EM's words. It could be that 5000/wk by next year June or even Sept (worst case scenario)

Tesla is a kind of stock that you should trade on a month to month basis. It is not for long term purposes imo.

 

[AlMc]

Unless you sell tomorrow, you haven't lost anything but time.

Edit* assuming you aren't messing around with options.

Not to be a 'Debbie Downer' but you have potential 'opportunity cost' loss vs investing the money elsewhere.

 

[3Victoria]

Not to be a 'Debbie Downer' but you have potential 'opportunity cost' loss vs investing the money elsewhere.

True. I am a long, so I just observe the SP and know that over the long-term it will much more likely climb rather than crash. I would say its still moderate to high risk, so don't bet you retirement unless you are young enough to restart from 0.

 

[neroden]

There is no guarantee when it comes to EM's words. It could be that 5000/wk by next year June or even Sept (worst case scenario)

Tesla is a kind of stock that you should trade on a month to month basis. It is not for long term purposes imo.

IMNSHO, you've got it exactly backwards. It's crazy risky to trade it short-term, but if you're in it for the 5-year-plus period it's fairly predictable.

 

[jackdillio]

IMNSHO, you've got it exactly backwards. It's crazy risky to trade it short-term, but if you're in it for the 5-year-plus period it's fairly predictable.

True, what if Tesla barely crossed 400 in the year 2020?? It will be a waste of time.

Try cryptocurrency.. It is the real deal.

 

[Starno]

True, what if Tesla barely crossed 400 in the year 2020?? It will be a waste of time.

Try cryptocurrency.. It is the real deal.

If Tesla barely cross 400 in the year 2020 that means a lot of things would have went wrong.
Fundamental things. And if you're somewhat of a good business analyst it is easy to spot when fundamentals go wrong.

If Tesla fundamentals go right, it's fairly easy to predict on a 5 year period.
It's hard to predict on the short term, because it's often disconnected from fundamentals.

 

[3Victoria]

IMNSHO, you've got it exactly backwards. It's crazy risky to trade it short-term, but if you're in it for the 5-year-plus period it's fairly predictable.

I agree, risk short term is much worse, but there is still significant risk long-term ... just invest with one's eyes open! If long-term, one needs to ignore the (large) variabiliy for one's blood pressure.

 

[Richgoogol]

Not sure if you guys have read this post regarding someone gotten their VIN already for their M3. This seems like helpful information regarding its production.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I'm sure if Tesla announces that they have many more thousands of M3 produced in Q4 than delivered, Seeking Alpha will find ways to spin that.

"Does Tesla have a delivery bottleneck?"

"Are customers balking on M3 deliveries after tax incentive removal?"

"What's causing the delay in delivery? Does Tesla have a big QA problem with the M3?" (cue reprint of the build quality article)

Seeking Alpha is a platform to 13,000+ contributors with varying opinions on thousands of stocks.

 

[bdy0627]

If the target for Model 3 production hitting 5000/week was initially end of December, and now it's end of March, we are now closer to 5000/week than we were on June 23 and almost as close as we were on Sept 18 (TSLA closed above 380 on both those dates).

That's a really great point, and also illustrates how sentiment above all drives stock prices. At least in the short term.

 

[dc_h]

Seeking Alpha is a platform to 13,000+ contributors with varying opinions on thousands of stocks.

1 of them has a bullish outlook on Tesla, which is nice (thank you VA).

 

[ValueAnalyst]

1 of them has a bullish outlook on Tesla, which is nice (thank you VA).

There’s actually a bunch of TSLA bulls now on SA; but yes, majority is still short/bearish with a few bad apples tarnishing the brand with constant FUD.

 

[Fifield]

Tesla leads solar securitization market well past $1B in 2017 – seeking $131 million

The article indicates potentially $471 million from issuance of solar-asset-backed securities raised by Tesla in Q4.

How is this reported within quarterly financials?
Does this indicate Tesla Energy is ramping or are there other factors?
Do you think this is priced in to the stock price at all?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Tesla leads solar securitization market well past $1B in 2017 – seeking $131 million

The article indicates potentially $471 million from issuance of solar-asset-backed securities raised by Tesla in Q4.

How is this reported within quarterly financials?
Does this indicate Tesla Energy is ramping or are there other factors?
Do you think this is priced in to the stock price at all?

Tesla is simply selling the rights to the multi-decade solar system receivables in return of cash now. This is nothing new and has nothing to do with Tesla Energy “ramp.”

 

[ggr]

Below that, we have strong support at the 287 level which had been resistance for 3 years.

Que? It's been resistance above, if by that you mean it never reached it until March this year, and it has never been near it since...

 

[GoTslaGo]

With sentiment at its lowest since we broke above 300, I'd like to point out the following:

- Support at 300 has held so far. Below that, we have strong support at the 287 level which had been resistance for 3 years.
- Since Tesla went public, the stock price has never declined for more than 4 straight months. We are in month 4 now.
- In most years, a Santa Claus rally does indeed occur, especially in years where the markets have been up overall. So this is still in the cards.
- If the target for Model 3 production hitting 5000/week was initially end of December, and now it's end of March, we are now closer to 5000/week than we were on June 23 and almost as close as we were on Sept 18 (TSLA closed above 380 on both those dates).

I was telling a friend of mine the same exact things tonight. He was fretting about TSLA SP.

And NO, I did not read your post before talking to my friend.

 

[hobbes]

Not sure if you guys have read this post regarding someone gotten their VIN already for their M3. This seems like helpful information regarding its production.

Here is the link to this conversation, just in case someone wants to follow the discussion there.

 

[Imperion]

I'm sure if Tesla announces that they have many more thousands of M3 produced in Q4 than delivered, Seeking Alpha will find ways to spin that.

"Does Tesla have a delivery bottleneck?"

"Are customers balking on M3 deliveries after tax incentive removal?"

"What's causing the delay in delivery? Does Tesla have a big QA problem with the M3?" (cue reprint of the build quality article)

A lot of their analyst are mainly people that write a story to get clicks. Positive stories never get clicks. If they want to retain subscribers or want to get new subscribers, the best way is to write controversial stories. Also note that a few of the analyst that write negative stories are shorters themselves so it is in their best interest to write horse crap about Tesla even though the company is doing a lot.