2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[mongo]

Or if the database is updated almost immediately and Tesla doesn't need to register the VINs more than a day or two in advance, it could be higher.

I've looked a bit, but I have not found any requirements regarding when a new vehicle's VIN must be reported (only found info on reporting the format), So, Tesla could theoretically build ahead of the NHTSA reported numbers (potentially until the vehicle is sold).

 

[Curt Renz]

The TSLA trading pattern this morning includes a possibly bullish Inverse Head & Shoulders. The steep sell-off that occurred an hour after the opening appears to have washed out the bears and weak longs. The following push upward may suggest that selling on fear of Model 3 delivery numbers could have already run its course.

 

[mongo]

I expect there to be margin at every point in the system, excluding service. There is no money in servicing EVs and that is by design and part of the kill shot on ICE vehicles. The profit motivation related to service must be crushed to speed the mission. Traditional Autos literally will be illegal to operate in an EV environment. Lets take GM for instance, they cannot sell direct and they cannot afford to pay dealers to sell the cars for them and still remain competitive. Dealers will not sell cars they cannot make money from maintenance without other incentives. GM will have to die and come back as a different company that can sell direct. At which point ,their dealer networks will file suit. They really are really in a bad situation. Even if was legal to sell direct, their dealers will keep them locked up in court forever.

Tesla will have Margin on charging, solar and storage batteries. An average of 30% GM. Even Megachargers. How do I know this? because Pay 4c/KWh for residential solar with net metering, which is also available to Tesla in many states. Batteries for Megachargers will be mostly used to avoid fees related to spikes in demand.

I agree with what you are saying.
All I was trying to say to the general group is that Tesla's lack of drilling rigs doesn't mean you can include the cost savings of not having drilling rigs in the Tesla profit number, it is a factor in the gasoline/ diesel cost though.

 

[Bet TSLA]

I don't understand why people buy the stock when they can spend about $100/share less with this option (or others in the ballpark). The option will track dollar-for-dollar with the stock performance over the next two years. If the stock soars, as most here expect, the option will give even better percentage return.

We do it for the dividends.

 

[MitchJi]

Now we have deliveries in full swing both at Fremont and Santa Monica, suggesting the cars are complete and not awaiting missing components as some have suggested.

Or Tesla received the missing parts.

I think the next few days is one of the best opportunities to buy TSLA that we've had in a long time...

No guarantee that that opportunity will last a few days.

 

[Reciprocity]

I agree with what you are saying.
All I was trying to say to the general group is that Tesla's lack of drilling rigs doesn't mean you can include the cost savings of not having drilling rigs in the Tesla profit number, it is a factor in the gasoline/ diesel cost though.

My point was Tesla would have margin on the service and products it offers, not that they would have the same cumulative profit of all those displaced businesses. The fact that they are displacing them gives them room for some decent margins. The displacement better be much more efficient or it won't work.

One example is solar, where I used to pay .5c+/KWh just for delivery of electricity. Most of the time it actually costs more then the electricity itself. You lose about 2% DC to AC for home solar, not 50%+ for transmission. Similar savings for charging stations powered from solar + battery.

 

[mongo]

My point was Tesla would have margin on the service and products it offers, not that they would have the same cumulative profit of all those displaced businesses. The fact that they are displacing them gives them room for some decent margins. The displacement better be much more efficient or it won't work.

We are in complete agreement here.

You lose about 2% DC to AC for home solar, not 50%+ for transmission.

Your transmission power loss number may be a bit high, 8-15% is the number I found. (generation is way worse).

 

[gtrplyr1]

@myusername.

If you read my statement I clearly stated "one would think" ..... that's my opinion based on the sheer number of negative comments I've heard , several of which have been so off the factual mark it's scary. Including a lot of what you post.

ie. Musk's timeline for the Model 3 .... he gave his goals and I'm not going to beat him up over not getting there .... he openly admitted they would be in manufacturing hell and they are. I also have faith they will figure it out in very short order. You seem to think he has some diabolical plan to steal people's money and is stalling as long as he can before he gets discovered for the fraud he is.


I will also add this: With regards to the SP of the stock right now ... I understand how one could have a problem with it .... from a balance sheet perspective right now Tesla is overvalued but what investors are paying for is the future .... if you believe in Tesla's long term vision you can justify it ... maybe there will be a better entry point for this stock but I'm not very good at timing the market .... I buy and let my $$ sit. AS I did with AAPL for the last 15 years ... and did very well. I'm seeing some of the very same things being said and written regarding the two companies. As Apple did and still does, Tesla is also "skating to where the puck is ....."

 

[Zaxxon]

I think the next few days is one of the best opportunities to buy TSLA that we've had in a long time...

Really hoping it lasts into the first trading day of 2018 so I can fund the IRA and grab a few shares...

 

[gtrplyr1]

This is what I'm paying a premium on the stock for right now ...

Tesla Inc. Crushes Competition in Owner Satisfaction

The domestic car makers who have been doing this for decades are getting their clocks cleaned. Reminds me of : Nokia, Erricson, Motorola , Palm ..... when the iPhone came out.

Model 3 is the new iPhone.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Not on topic, but...
Today I drove my first Tesla, 2 years after buying my first (miniscule) round of stock. I kept buying (almost one by one) from there.
The car is amazing, and a complete new experience of what a car is, and driving should be.
With a product like this, there's no need to worry.
I'm very excited about 2018, the rest is noise. Just wish I could bue few more shares.

Similar with me but yet driven one. The man, the story, the products and the future isn’t all that hard to put my money on it. If I can ride my daughter’s Minnie Mouse 6V powerwheels and have fun I’m sure I would love a EV a little more.

 

[ktrivedi70]

Not on topic, but...
Today I drove my first Tesla, 2 years after buying my first (miniscule) round of stock. I kept buying (almost one by one) from there.
The car is amazing, and a complete new experience of what a car is, and driving should be.
With a product like this, there's no need to worry.
I'm very excited about 2018, the rest is noise. Just wish I could bue few more shares.

Sometimes we get sucked into the weeds and get lost in all the little details. Thanks for putting this back in perspective.

PS. Think how many people are going to be driving one for the first time in the coming year.

 

[madodel]

Similar with me but yet driven one. The man, the story, the products and the future isn’t all that hard to put my money on it. If I can ride my daughter’s Minnie Mouse 6V powerwheels and have fun I’m sure I would love a EV a little more.

You can step up to the Mercedes today and not wait until 2020+ for all the Tesla killers. Target : Expect More. Pay Less.

 

[Papafox]

Looks like the combination of Tesla registering 3500+ Model 3 VINs today and electrek.co showing the drone video of lots of Model 3s moving off the Fremont lot has reinforced OptionSniper's view that 313 is a great price to accumulate now for long-term investors. I bought a couple calls earlier today.

Watch today's close carefully. Shorts will try to engineer a dip, but we might instead see a final hour rally. The close today should give us an indication about Friday's trading.

 

[ZsoZso]

I expect a ~$10+ rally tomorrow in anticipation of the record breaking quarter, however, I also expect that to be reversed next week (when delivery numbers are reported), aka buy the rumor sell the news style. Following that, the SP should start inching up daily as more M3 gets delivered.

 

[Sancho]

313 is a great price to accumulate now for long-term investors. I bought a couple calls earlier today.

I usually buy longer term calls, but today I purchased Feb call spreads. IF the ramp is really happening (and the signs look favorable) then our long winter may be over, and over quickly. This may be the moment to be the most bullish.

Notwithstanding this near term bet, most of my money remains patiently invested on TSLA’s longer term future. It’s a long game.

Thanks Papafox, and so many others on this forum, for helping us collectively get through the dark days of derision and doubt. Happy New Year to all, and may we all prosper in 2018, and grow wiser in the process.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Think I missed the bottom again. Set a buy limit for 308.xx... didn’t hit. Oh well.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Think I missed the bottom again. Set a buy limit for 308.xx... didn’t hit. Oh well.

Please continue posting your orders, I will set mine a couple of bucks higher

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Bought another 50 shares for my trading account and 10 more for each of our IRAs. Getting super low on cash now.

Originally hoping for <280 as I bought last at 300. Lots of good s/x/3 reports so I don’t think I’ll get that chance before Q4 numbers.

 

[2virgule5]

Not on topic, but...
Today I drove my first Tesla, 2 years after buying my first (miniscule) round of stock. I kept buying (almost one by one) from there.
The car is amazing, and a complete new experience of what a car is, and driving should be.
With a product like this, there's no need to worry.
I'm very excited about 2018, the rest is noise. Just wish I could bue few more shares.

Divertiti !