2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[dennis]

How does this work?

1) Donating highly appreciated stock to charity is the best. Let's say I have $1000 worth of stock that has a $0 basis. If I sell the stock I pay 23.8% to the Feds and 13% to California. I am left with a profit of $632.

Now instead if I donate that stock to charity I get to take a deduction against ordinary income. Assuming I am in the highest tax bracket the $1000 donation saves me $396 in Federal taxes and $130 in California taxes for a total of $526 in tax savings.

Bottom line: By donating $1000 of appreciated stock the charity gets the full $1000 value but the actual cost to me (vs. selling the stock) is $106.

2) Currently, when you die the basis of all of the stock that your heirs inherit is stepped up to the fair market value of the stock on the day you died. There is discussion about changing that in the Trump/Republican tax proposals if they do away with the estate tax.

 

[D-egg-O]

Tomorrow is going to be an interesting day. http://i.imgur.com/lR7V43d.jpg

 

[Yggdrasill]

Tesla is not a $40b company today... they are a $40b company in the future... when is that future?... well Jim Cramer seems to think they'll be producing and selling 500k cars in 2018... he stated that incorrectly today even... when what's really being discussed is "run rates".

They'll be pretty close to 500k in 2018, if they meet guidance. They should minimally enter 2018 producing 5,000 Model 3 per week, and exit 2018 producing 10,000 Model 3 per week. An average of 7500 Model 3 per week over 48 weeks, plus 100k Model S/X, would be 460k.

 

[zdriver]

Tomorrow is going to be an interesting day. http://i.imgur.com/lR7V43d.jpg

Indeed. Max pain is still $270, guess we'll see if that's relevant.

Also noteable, GEX (sqzme | Documentation) is quite low (and negative), even more so than last Thursday. Last time it was this low was Dec 6th. (Dec 7th ended +3.93%, but was a Wednesday, not Friday)
DPI (see docs link above) remained in the low 60% range, just as it has the last few days, indicating net buying in dark pools.

Someone mentioned TSLA today looked like FSLR yesterday. DPI and GEX numbers for FSLR yesterday have a similar pattern as TSLA today...

tl;dr: I wouldn't be surprised if tomorrow is a big up day, perhaps even back to $270ish. That said, this week obviously isn't one devoid of news/fundamental changes, so I don't have a ton of confidence any of this will factor in tomorrow.

 

[D-egg-O]

Indeed. Max pain is still $270, guess we'll see if that's relevant.

Also noteable, GEX (sqzme | Documentation) is quite low (and negative), even more so than last Thursday. Last time it was this low was Dec 6th. (Dec 7th ended +3.93%, but was a Wednesday, not Friday)
DPI (see docs link above) remained in the low 60% range, just as it has the last few days, indicating net buying in dark pools.

Someone mentioned TSLA today looked like FSLR yesterday. DPI and GEX numbers for FSLR yesterday have a similar pattern as TSLA today...

tl;dr: I wouldn't be surprised if tomorrow is a big up day, perhaps even back to $270ish. That said, this week obviously isn't one devoid of news/fundamental changes, so I don't have a ton of confidence any of this will factor in tomorrow.

Wow. That's a ton of detail I am unaware of. I simply bought the puts ahead of earnings a insurance in case the price dropped significantly.

 

[1kEE]

Is max pain 270 or 260? Last time I checked a day ago it was 260, and now the web site it acting screwy again (as usual)....

 

[GoTslaGo]

Is max pain 270 or 260? Last time I checked a day ago it was 260, and now the web site it acting screwy again (as usual)....

Same here. Saw it was 260 a day ago. Then earlier today saw it was up to 270 (when prices were hitting 250s). Now the website is all over the place.

 

[EMdoc12]

Tomorrow is going to be an interesting day. http://i.imgur.com/lR7V43d.jpg

Curious but what platform??

 

[MitchJi]

Is max pain 270 or 260? Last time I checked a day ago it was 260, and now the web site it acting screwy again (as usual)....

It won't matter IMO if we have another day with very high volume (today was over 14 million).

 

[vgrinshpun]

Maximum-Pain.com does not always work, so here is the snap shot that I managed to get - max pain as shown there is at $262.5, relevant for today or not...

 

[Sudre]

TSLA has reached a price point last night that my right hand is ready to start vigorously grabbing today and my left hand won't be fast enough to stop it.
If it goes down more by Monday my right and left hand will be grabbing.

 

[AlMc]

TSLA has reached a price point last night that my right hand is ready to start vigorously grabbing today and my left hand won't be fast enough to stop it.
If it goes down more by Monday my right and left hand will be grabbing.

My best guess is you will be grabbing more Monday

 

[D-egg-O]

Curious but what platform??

Schwab

 

[RoadsterPlease]

Again Dropping in Germany right now, looks like a continued downward trend for today

 

[hoang51]

Maximum-Pain.com does not always work, so here is the snap shot that I managed to get - max pain as shown there is at $262.5, relevant for today or not...

View attachment 216161

Judging by premarket, max pain for options might not happen because the 3 major indices are in the red, and so is TSLA. It would be nice for TSLA to recover though...

 

[SebastianR]

I'm ashamed to say that I feel responsible for this slight dip. For the first time ever(!) I sold a very modest lot of 20 shares on Monday (German exchange). I'm now patiently waiting for my opportunity to buy a multitude of these shares back at much lower prices...

 

[theschnell]

Tomorrow is going to be an interesting day. http://i.imgur.com/lR7V43d.jpg

Nice! I would suggest entering an aggressive limit order before market opens to sell those. I think the low of the day will be near market open. Unless you intend to exercise, then you might as well hold until expiration.

 

[D-egg-O]

Nice! I would suggest entering an aggressive limit order before market opens to sell those. I think the low of the day will be near market open. Unless you intend to exercise, then you might as well hold until expiration.

I own the underlying security, so if it stays as is or drops further today, I will exercise them.

 

[theschnell]

I own the underlying security, so if it stays as is or drops further today, I will exercise them.

But that only makes sense if you are actually looking to sell your shares. Which may be the case. Market opened at $251. Would have been a good opportunity to sell. But your shares and puts, not mine, so do what you want.

 

[DurandalAI]

Trump's pledge to restore coal country is very concerning and strange.

I'm honestly not concerned about coal beyond this 4 year period. Many coal plants are being converted to natural gas out of price reasons, and the ability of gas to be used for peaker plants. With solar power prices continuing to drop, even with this admin, I don't see new coal power plants coming online, although it's possible some decommissioned ones may be spun back up.