2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[Papafox]

For some reason I got a notification from yahoo finance (via Reuters) that Tesla ousted Klaus Grohman. It's been a month since Mr. Grohman left the company. When I checked the SP, it was back in the red.

Mark Spiegel's twitter account links to this Times of India article about Grohman's departure. Here's a quote:
"I definitely did not depart because I had lost interest in working," Grohmann said, without elaborating.
The article suggests that when Musk told Grohmann that existing customers would be dropped and the firm would concentrate on Tesla, that is when Grohmann decided to leave.

 

[winfield100]

For some reason I got a notification from yahoo finance (via Reuters) that Tesla ousted Klaus Grohman. It's been a month since Mr. Grohman left the company. When I checked the SP, it was back in the red.

because there is a Sleezking Alphaalfa article just out on it, after TSLA climbed ~13% in the month interim

 

[D-egg-O]

because there is a Sleezking Alphaalfa article just out on it, after TSLA climbed ~13% in the month interim

So now I have to ask... why does @ValueAnalyst work there? Sorry. You probably get this questions a lot.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

So now I have to ask... why does @ValueAnalyst work there? Sorry. You probably get this questions a lot.

I don't "work" there. Anybody can become a contributor and write articles. I just amassed a following because what I write actually makes sense.

 

[Reciprocity]

Any thoughts on the fact that there appears to be a trade war forming in the aluminium market impacting the stock today?

 

[Mike Smith]

Mark Spiegel's twitter account links to this Times of India article about Grohman's departure. Here's a quote:
"I definitely did not depart because I had lost interest in working," Grohmann said, without elaborating.
The article suggests that when Musk told Grohmann that existing customers would be dropped and the firm would concentrate on Tesla, that is when Grohmann decided to leave.

Tesla exec ousted after clashing with CEO Musk
'A Tesla spokesman, asked about Grohmann's departure, praised him for building an "incredible company" and said: "Part of Mr Grohmann's decision to work with Tesla was to prepare for his retirement and leave the company in capable hands for the future. Given the change in focus to Tesla projects, we mutually decided that it was the right time for the next generation of management to lead."

Two sources familiar with the matter said Tesla's plans to ramp up production with the help of the company now renamed Tesla Grohmann Automation remain on track.'

 

[D-egg-O]

I won't be surprised if we get down below 305 tomorrow, a 3-4% dip from ATH, and come back up on Mon, as I was thinking 2 days ago.

Add: but I won't do anything about it. just holding and waiting for the ER

Was already thinking about it. Bought 1 5/5 305P.

 

[Starno]

What if 300 is the new 200 ?

Might be the case until M3 proves itself.

 

[Omelek]

I won't be surprised if we get down below 305 tomorrow, a 3-4% dip from ATH, and come back up on Mon, as I was thinking 2 days ago.

Add: but I won't do anything about it. just holding and waiting 4 M 3

I fixed that for you.

 

[sdtslafan]

Given that we have been recently bombarded with articles about the scarcity of cobalt, does anyone have more information about how Tesla can navigate through this?

Obviously, the recent surge in price of Cobalt will help to increase interest and supply levels.

Tesla will likely also get the best deals because it will have the highest requirements.

It seems that mining Cobalt can come as a byproduct of mining lithium and nickel so by purchasing these other components of the battery, Tesla will be promoting increased supply of Cobalt.

It seems like most Cobalt comes from the unstable Congo region. I've read that China and hedge funds are buying up Cobalt.

Are there other promising suppliers that you have read about?

JB addressed this issue in a recent talk but I forget where. How do we get this addressed in the warnings call? What are your thoughts?

Thanks.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Nice little squeeze tomorrow on general NASDAQ bullishness? Amazon and Google crushing.

 

[BornToFly]

I just started the transfer of more $$ into my Fidelity account so I can make a play after the ER if the SP goes down. I want to buy DITM Jan 2019 calls. I just don't know how deep to go. $100, $200? I would love to hear advice on which to buy. Thanks guys!

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I just started the transfer of more $$ into my Fidelity account so I can make a play after the ER if the SP goes down. I want to buy DITM Jan 2019 calls. I just don't know how deep to go. $100, $200? I would love to hear advice on which to buy. Thanks guys!

I hold strike $100, because there is no time-value on these calls, maybe $0.5
But I intend to keep until maturity. I am certain of it.
You get more leverage with $150 strike, but need to pay another little bit, maybe half a buck or couple bucks. That's few Gs I wasn't willing to lose by holding to the end. If you want to switch gears after appreciation/depreciation, $150 or even $200 would give you more leverage and maybe more liquidity.

Spreads are horific for all of these. See where SP is, and offer small premium on top of that, your offer should be around 50%-70% of the width of the spread to the side you want, i.e. towards ask. Example: strike $100, bid is $208, ask is $209, offer $208.5-$208.7. Somewhere in there you will get a bite. Experiment...

Don't pay ask, don't sell for bid, there are MM's bots that will cash you in somewhere in between as soon as they make a bit for themselves... At least this is how it works for me coming through TD Direct (not Ameritrade), original TD in Canada

 

[BornToFly]

If you want to switch gears after appreciation/depreciation, $150 or even $200 would give you more leverage and maybe more liquidity.

I will probably sell them in 10 months or less because I will want the cash for something else. If the stock is at 350 in 8 months, will I make more money buying 2 calls with 200 strike, or one call with a 100 strike?

 

[Fifield]

Options profit calculator

 

[dw4ngg]

I just started the transfer of more $$ into my Fidelity account so I can make a play after the ER if the SP goes down. I want to buy DITM Jan 2019 calls. I just don't know how deep to go. $100, $200? I would love to hear advice on which to buy. Thanks guys!

DITM after earnings might be $300 my friend....

 

[dw4ngg]

I just started the transfer of more $$ into my Fidelity account so I can make a play after the ER if the SP goes down. I want to buy DITM Jan 2019 calls. I just don't know how deep to go. $100, $200? I would love to hear advice on which to buy. Thanks guys!

Seriously though, I have 2018 $250s, 2019 $240s, $300s, and $350s....

And I also have a few May 2017s

 

[Snapdragon III]

I will probably sell them in 10 months or less because I will want the cash for something else. If the stock is at 350 in 8 months, will I make more money buying 2 calls with 200 strike, or one call with a 100 strike?

Yes you would make more with twice as many calls at the higher strike if the stock is at 350 in 10 months. But don't forget, if the stock is at 200 in 10 months the 200 calls are going to be worth next to nothing. In my strong opinion you should not buy any options if you are not very prepared for the possibly of loosing all of the money. Also, the volatility and frustrating nature of options will gnaw at your soul. (Don't ask me how I know)

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Yes you would make more with twice as many calls at the higher strike if the stock is at 350 in 10 months. But don't forget, if the stock is at 200 in 10 months the 200 calls are going to be worth next to nothing. In my strong opinion you should not buy any options if you are not very prepared for the possibly of loosing all of the money. Also, the volatility and frustrating nature of options will gnaw at your soul. (Don't ask me how I know)

Well, few things depend on your vantage point. Truly DITM calls (strike $100) lose no time-value. So if I can afford to buy 800 shares, I may instead buy 8 contracts (equal movement to 800 shares), and keep 35 percent cash, just in case. Or buy 10 contracts for 125% exposure. You're not gonna lose _everything_ with that kind of strategy. If stocks rises 50%, you will make 1.5*1.25=1.875, i.e 87.5%. If stock drops 50%, you will lose 0.5*1.25=62.5%, actually probably a bit less,as options will recover some time-value as you get closer to the strike.

Point is to think in terms of leverage, and how much exposure in terms of shares you want. At least that works for me...

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I will probably sell them in 10 months or less because I will want the cash for something else. If the stock is at 350 in 8 months, will I make more money buying 2 calls with 200 strike, or one call with a 100 strike?

2 calls will make your more money, but I'd warmly suggest you read up on options before diving in. They're dangerous, and much harder to read at the glance on statements, when executing trade etc You need to spend some time to internalize behavior etc...

If you must trade unprepared, here are my thoughts (not advice!):
- do not buy more than 120% exposure, i.e money/SP/100*1.2. Example you have 100K and SP is $300, 100000/300/100*1.2=4 Do not buy more than 4 contracts (1 contract = 100 shares), to control potential loses
- Here is how much to pay:
Jan 19 strike $100, fair value pay around SP-$99.5, at max SP-$99($1 time value premium)
Jan 19 strike $150, pay SP-$149, at max SP-$147 ($3 time-value premium, that may be too much though, I didn't check this strike for awhile)