I am, in fact, expecting Tesla Energy and SolarCity to offset the vehicle miss. It may look gimmicky (one-time items) however.
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Ah. Yeah, heh. I figure anything which is positive EPS will certainly count as a "beat" in terms of market reaction; beating the average estimate of a 25 cent loss will probably also count as a "beat" but I'm not so sure.
Thank you, this is very interesting. I was away from my desk for the whole day and could not follow shares available for shorting at Fidelity, but this data certainly fills the gap. We have extremely sharp jump in short interest all the while the SP keeps marching up. Below is the table of the latest short interest dynamic to put things in perspective. Note that short interest grew 3.342 million shares in the past 3 weeks, which is equivalent to 3.342 million shares dilution. Given healthy gains in SP, somebody (institutonal SO IMO) had to provide enormous buying pressure that overcame 1.1 million shares dilution per week. This looks like a really unique setup. In case of positive ER (Solar City bringing more cash from selling PPAs this quarter - $256MM - than burning for new installs, potential for Tesla beating their projection for the operating expenses - which they did for the last two quarters, etc.) we can have a serious breakout. Given that Bollinger Band is just a statistical indicator of the SP, by default based on last 20 days, with standard deviation of 2, it might stop to be a good predictor of SP movements during such a unique time.
Wow, I was thinking we can see net short covering today, but instead there was flipping 1 million shares shorted!
erthquake
Active Member
Maybe with the solar equity sales, but announcing some new TE orders or projects in progress might tamp down any notion of gimmickry.
Just to drive naysayers crazy, I would love to also see some unexpected ZEV sales. I know, I know - not very likely - but that would be soo delicious!
What I find fascinating about the shorts is that they appear to think much along the lines of myusername in that they're of the opinion that TSLA has now departed the realm of overpriced and entered the realm of hyper-priced lately, whereas longs like many of us feel that TSLA has exited an unusually low stock price (180s and 190s) and reestablished a moderate price. Because longs look at today's TSLA price as moderate, we see potential for significant appreciation, but shorts see us just about as high as we can go and ready to head back down. That's why they're establishing new positions. When TSLA gets the right good news this year and shoots up, it'll be a true surprise for a good portion of the shorts. Hint: stick around and don't miss it.
I think you should.
And I think I should hold on to my shares also. I've been toying with the idea of selling down to TSLA being 25% of my portfolio (instead of 140% currently) at 300. But the more I think about it, the less of a good idea it seems. Why sell at 300 when you can wait and sell at 500?
(I will sell some though - I do prefer having a TSLA portion <100%.)
Gtoffo
Member
Once the stock "stabilised" around 10.44 there was a sharp rise with an increase in volume and we started dropping steadily. It felt like some algo was working against the stock swooping up all the bids.
TrendTrader007
Active Member
Well that would be logical. However with short interest at 32% + all bets are offSo, 2019. Good to know.
Tsla could move explosively to the upside with any major good news and go parabolic sometimes this year
TrendTrader007
Active Member
I think you are onto something. I think TSLA will fool everyone into complacency and when shorts least expect will make a huge parabolic run lasting several months.
Gtoffo
Member
Hope so.
It's possible but the trend of the last months has usually had a couple of days of stagnation after we have touched the upper limit.
The trend+premarket would suggest possibly a strong open and closing flat.
Hope I'm wrong and we breakout. Yesterday's action was really disappointing. I was too slow to react and held on to my options. Dumb move caused by greed. Should have sold half at open if I really wanted to risk it (probably should have just sold all of it).
Greed is my enemy. I'll never learn to not get carried away. Maybe some of you can learn from my mistakes
racer26
Active Member
I'm not really sure why it would be unexpected - we sold more cars, and therefore generated more ZEVs. We generate 4 ZEVs per car sold in a ZEV state. 14/50 states are ZEV states. About half the cars we sell go to the USA, and about half of those (if not more) to ZEV states. That suggests about a quarter of production went to ZEV states, and so 4 ZEVs per car equals about 22,000 ZEV credits earned in 4Q16. We know from 3Q16 that we can get around $2500 per credit. It is therefore possible for us to have sold around another $55M in ZEV credits.
ATM, I am thinking we have a up then down then up scenario building... we are in territory that longs want to sell to take profits and there is uncertainty around Q4 results, especially combined TSLA/SCTY. But first up might still bring us quite a bit of gains. And the down might be modest. If your horizon is 2nd half, then barring macro market meltdown, what happens in the next little bit should be ignored. If you sell, then you might be out and never got back in.
If we didn't have this changeover to the Trump administration, I would be even more bullish. Just don't know what to expect.
If we didn't have this changeover to the Trump administration, I would be even more bullish. Just don't know what to expect.
Yesterday was a day where greed got me carried away.Greed is my enemy. I'll never learn to not get carried away. Maybe some of you can learn from my mistakes
I generally avoid attempts at day trading on massive up days and days where the SP action is surprising and drastic. Just too hard to predict.
But I got tempted to buy what I thought would be the daily bottom of 245.x and later was facing the choice between a small loss, or holding a larger than I planned on position for a little bit. I went for the hold.
In reality I was just excited and greedy.
And yes, max pain is acting weird since yesterday. Like the data is incomplete.
The question is demand for ZEVs and than Elon's readiness to sell ZEV credits for 50 cents on a dollar. Somebody need to buy them and (relatively) recent developments by CARB resulted in reduced demand for ZEVs.
I don't want to get *political* but I am more bullish now than I was at the time that we knew the election results. Did anyone here think EM and Trump would *appear* to be BFFs??
When you look at it now it makes perfect sense. But, then.....my initial reaction was to sell. Glad I did not.
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