2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[racer26]

FYI, this was dropped a bit after 1pm eastern - http://worksafe.typepad.com/files/worksafe_tesla5_24.pdf

"Analysis of Tesla Injury Rates: 2014 to 2017"

Algos caught it and sold... then got burnt by dark pools buying up every share the algos sold, and then some.

Reading that: sounds to me like Tesla is substantially worse than industry average at injuring people, but maybe that is normal for a startup->early phase company?

Also sounds like Tesla could be improving, but the data that suggests that isn't really conclusive.

I'm mostly unconcerned - injured employees are bad, to be certain, but the ideal is to eliminate the line workers altogether, which would dramatically improve the safety record. It seems like the majority of the injuries are repetitive stress injuries, which would be inherently common in any assembly line type operation involving people doing the work.

 

[Starno]

A close at 310 is stretch that I don't see happening. But who knows...

 

[Starno]

New all time high next week is possible though

 

[kenliles]

FYI, this was dropped a bit after 1pm eastern - http://worksafe.typepad.com/files/worksafe_tesla5_24.pdf

"Analysis of Tesla Injury Rates: 2014 to 2017"

Here's a good run down on that from electrek
Tesla’s injury rate at Fremont factory criticized in new report amid union push

 

[Dennisj00]

This headline also got mentioned on "CBS This morning".

 

[D-egg-O]

Here's a good run down on that from electrek
Tesla’s injury rate at Fremont factory criticized in new report amid union push

FYI...one can claim a paper cut as an OSHA recordable. Or banging your knee on the desk. Just saying that if someone/organization really wanted to inflate the incident rate, they easily could.

Edit: I've never expected Tesla to have a lower worker injury rate than the establishment. (1) Tesla is a baby company compared to the rest. (2) Tesla is constantly pushing forward compared to legacy OEMs.

 

[DurandalAI]

FYI...one can claim a paper cut as an OSHA recordable. Or banging your knee on the desk. Just saying that if someone/organization really wanted to inflate the incident rate, they easily could.

Edit: I've never expected Tesla to have a lower worker injury rate than the establishment. (1) Tesla is a baby company compared to the rest. (2) Tesla is constantly pushing forward compared to legacy OEMs.

Just in case anyone thinks that this statement is over the top, it is not. I've worked a number of places in my past where even very minor injuries such as slipping and bruising your knee, butt, etc are required to be reported, even if not work impacting in any way. The theory is that you take care of small problems before they escalate into large problems, but it also inflates injury numbers.

That said, unless the injuries are egregious in nature, showing willful negligence on the part of Tesla, I don't think institutional investors will play it much thought.

 

[D-egg-O]

I've worked a number of places in my past where even very minor injuries such as slipping and bruising your knee, butt, etc are required to be reported, even if not work impacting in any way. The theory is that you take care of small problems before they escalate into large problems, but it also inflates injury numbers.

This is an excellent point. Tesla could have a high incidence rate because management chose to be more proactive and record more to better drive down actual injuries. Also, we don't know how many injuries go unreported at other companies, making their injury rates look better. You get what you measure and you get what you reward.

 

[Turing]

Reading that: sounds to me like Tesla is substantially worse than industry average at injuring people, but maybe that is normal for a startup->early phase company?

Also sounds like Tesla could be improving, but the data that suggests that isn't really conclusive.

I'm mostly unconcerned - injured employees are bad, to be certain, but the ideal is to eliminate the line workers altogether, which would dramatically improve the safety record. It seems like the majority of the injuries are repetitive stress injuries, which would be inherently common in any assembly line type operation involving people doing the work.

The injury rate numbers they use are per 100 workers not based on injury per # of hours worked. But if Tesla workers work say 20% more hours in a year than the average auto worker than even with a similar injury rate Tesla's would look higher per 100 workers. Which would make sense that Elon was arguing that 2017 injury rate is down as they hired a third shift and Tesla workers are working more industry average weekly hours, plus making constant worker improvements to the line. I'd like to think that the easier to build model 3 line will have much lower injury rates than the industry average.

 

[DurandalAI]

Regarding injuries, this is something that I posted on the Electrek article:
"Go to this link, and look up General Motors' track record for a comparison.. lol.
Establishment Specific Injury and Illness Data (OSHA Data Initiative) | Occupational Safety and Health Administration
TCRs of 12.67 in 2011, and 23.92 in 1997.

The unions were around long before 1997, why weren't they protecting the workers?"

 

[madodel]

U.S. sues Fiat Chrysler, saying it used software to cheat on emissions tests
Is this already priced in the SP of the the auto manufacturers? Was it known this was coming?

 

[moe.salih]

Short interest updated.

Source: TSLA Short Interest

 

[madodel]

Hey by 2025 GM may make a small profit off the Bolt. "$7,400 with every Bolt sold today" No wonder all the auto analysts can't figure out how Tesla stays in business when the competition is this stupid.
Electric Car Price Parity Expected Next Year -- Report

 

[racer26]

another thing a friend noticed about that injury report is that the graphs in it use messed up Y-axes that don't start at zero to make it look like the Tesla bar is looming over the industry average much more than it actually is.

 

[MXWing]

People who comment on stocks should be forced to take positions.
Talk is cheap.

 

[zdriver]

I seem to recall there's either no, or a very long deadline for an employee to report an OSHA-tracked injury. If true, that might explain the "updated 2016 numbers" being higher. ("UAW will buy lunch and hold a raffle if you come listen to us..." "Oh yeah, I seem to recall xyz injury that happened in 2016, now that you mention it!")

 

[Skryll]

People who comment on stocks should be forced to take positions.
Talk is cheap.

View attachment 228280

Yeah he probably did intent to take that position if somebody was willing to write them for him

 

[DurandalAI]

I seem to recall there's either no, or a very long deadline for an employee to report an OSHA-tracked injury. If true, that might explain the "updated 2016 numbers" being higher. ("UAW will buy lunch and hold a raffle if you come listen to us..." "Oh yeah, I seem to recall xyz injury that happened in 2016, now that you mention it!")

Most places it's 30 days or less, in order to be eligible for workman's comp, which will be the driving factor for most reporting unless you have union bosses pushing you to report very minor injuries. Even though I work in the IT field, I receive the same training that those who work in the warehouse receive, and for our company, same day reporting is required unless you are somehow incapacitated.
Worker's Compensation Time Limits

While technically injuries could be reported past 30 days, they would not be actionable for workman's comp, of course dependent on state/federal laws. Which means you can pretty much guess that the majority of claims made after a 30 day period are likely an attempt to boost injury claim numbers.

 

[Dwdnjck]

You as well? We use the gym membership to take showers. I hope the super charger network keeps running, not sure how to stay warm at night otherwise.[/QUOTI

I just had cut down on the Grey Puopon.

 

[ggies07]

U.S. sues Fiat Chrysler, saying it used software to cheat on emissions tests
Is this already priced in the SP of the the auto manufacturers? Was it known this was coming?

Which is weird right? Because most of the automakers wrote a letter to the president asking for less fuel restrictions.....and they have lobbyists, which controls the govt......